Monday, May 6, 2013

What do the Celtics do now?

You knew they would go down fighting.  There was just no quit in this team and you knew they would give it everything they had.  In the end, it wasn't enough for the undermanned and overmatched Celtics to overcome a powerful Knicks team.  Then again, we knew that before the series even started.

With their first round exit putting an end to their season, the question remains - what's next?

The direction of this franchise hinges on the future of their two veteran leaders.  The fates of Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett undoubtedly are tied together.  They will either both be back, or neither of them will be.

Pierce has one year left on his current deal worth $15.3 million for next season, but it includes a team option
where Boston can buy him out for only $5 million.  The Captain is coming off another productive season, yet one that showed signs he may be slipping as his efficiency declined.  His .436 field goal percentage was the worst it has been in a decade and his .787 mark from the free throw line is far closer to league average than what we've come to expect from him.  This decline could partially be explained by his mid-season role change that forced him to carry the offense after Rajon Rondo's season ending injury.  It also could be a sign of a 35 year old playing on his last legs.  While he still managed to lead the team in scoring through the team's six playoff games, it came at a cost of some ugly shooting numbers.  His shot often looked flat while he was clearly running out of gas.  When he comes back another year older with more mileage piling up on his veteran body, the result would likely be similar.  Pierce can certainly remain a solid contributor in a reduced role at this stage of his career, but he can no longer carry a team on his back for long stretches, which means his value doesn't match his price tag anymore.  That makes it conceivable that the Celtics could make the difficult decision of parting ways with their franchise player after 15 years wearing green.

If the team declines to bring back Pierce, it would likely mean the end of the Garnett era in Boston as well.  If the team moves into a rebuilding mode, it's hard to imagine even someone as loyal as KG sticking around for that.  He was adamant about not wanting to be moved to another team at the trade deadline and the no trade clause in his contract is the only thing that kept him in Boston.  Perhaps he would be more open to a reduced role on a contending team if Pierce were no longer around.  Or he may just retire, as he nearly did last off-season.  Garnett symbolizes Boston's defensive identify and coach Doc Rivers has leaned on him for his veteran presence to stabilize the locker room.  KG demands excellence and holds his teammates accountable.  His leadership will be missed once he's gone.

Boston currently has $73.8 million committed to next season's roster, which would put them into the luxury tax territory.  However, that number could be cut down to $63.8 million if Pierce is bought out and could drop even further if Garnett is traded to a team with cap space that enables Boston to bring back young assets while taking back less salary.  These moves still might not even get them under the salary cap - certainly not far enough to chase any of the top free agents that will demand at least a near max deal.  Staying under the luxury tax does do more than keep more money in the owners pockets though.  Non-tax paying teams have more flexibility to make trades, including sign-and-trades that tax teams aren't eligible for.  They would also have access to the full mid-level and bi-annual exceptions to add free agents to above minimum contracts despite being over the cap.  That clearly won't be enough to get them back into title contention by next year, but it clears the path for their rebuilding strategy to move into full effect.

We just saw what the ceiling for this team as currently constructed looks like and a first round exit is far from
satisfactory in a town like Boston.  Sure, having a healthy Rondo would have made this series against the Knicks more competitive.  The offense wouldn't have stalled nearly as often and critical turnovers wouldn't be nearly as abundant if they had their All-Star point guard running the show.  However, the team was a disappointing 20-23 prior to Rondo's injury, so they hardly had the look of a title contender to begin with.  The return of Avery Bradley and Jeff Green's resurgence helped fuel them in the second half of the season, so it makes you wonder what might have been if Rondo had stayed healthy (not to mention Sullinger and Barbosa).  That's still no reason to hang our hopes on another run next year.  Rondo likely won't return until mid-season and when he does come back he won't necessarily be at the same level he was at before.  At least not right away.  Look no further than Chicago to find another All-Star point guard that has yet to make it back to the lineup over a year after suffering the same injury.  While Bulls fans continue to moan over the slow recovery of Derrick Rose, the former MVP is a prime example of how lengthy the recovery time for this injury can be.  Even once the knee has physically healed, there are still mental hurdles to overcome. 

Celtics fans are reluctant to let go of their aging stars due to the era of futility that followed the break up of the original Big Three.  Don't expect the rebuilding stage to take nearly two decades like last time.  These are completely different circumstances.  Last time the team didn't start to rebuild until injuries crippled the careers of Larry Bird and Kevin McHale.  The tragic deaths of Len Bias and Reggie Lewis deprived the franchise of the star players that were meant to carry the torch into the next era, while a series of poor signings and draft picks due to bad management decisions stalled the rebuilding movement even further.  The ownership group, GM and coach are a stronger leadership group than what was in place last time.  This time will be different.

But that time has now come.  It's been a great run these past six seasons, which included two trips to the Finals and one title.  At some point, all good things come to an end.  It's time for the Celtics franchise to move on to the next era.

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