Friday, May 31, 2013

Which MLB teams draft best?

The MLB draft is unlike any other in sports.  With the depth of baseball's minor league system, far more players are selected in the MLB draft than the NBA, NFL and NHL drafts combined.  While the top picks in other sports often make an immediate impact the following season, baseball players need to prove themselves by working their way up through the minor leagues before getting a chance to shine on the big stage.

This process of working their way up through the system can take years for young players, making baseball's path to the majors a far longer journey than in other major sports.  This leads to baseball having a much higher percentage of prospects fail.  Highly drafted players are never a sure thing in any sport, but there is a much wider margin of error in baseball (especially among pitchers, who are more likely to have their careers derailed by injuries). 

With this year's draft coming up next week, let's take a look back at the teams that have had the most
success drafting players over the past decade.  This list includes only active players who were drafted in 2003 or later, debuted in the major leagues prior to this season and have accumulated at least close to a season's worth of playing time.  The list is based on the Wins Above Replacement accumulated by the player since their debut.

Since the focus of this list is on the MLB draft, players that signed as undrafted free agents or signed with teams through the International posting process are excluded.  So you won't find Yu Darvish or Aroldis Chapman here.  I also eliminated players that have had too limited of an impact to account for more than a win for their team.

* Indicates the player no longer plays for the team that drafted him
** Indicates the player never played for the major league club before being traded to another team
- Numbers in parenthesis indicate career WAR (per FanGraphs)

Arizona Diamondbacks:  Paul Goldschmidt (5.7), Wade Miley (5.2), Ryan Cook* (2.1), Jarrod Parker* (3.5), Josh Collmentor (3.9), Max Scherzer* (17.4), Brett Anderson** (8.4), Justin Upton* (17.2), Stephen Drew* (10.8), Mark Reynolds* (8.6), Carlos Quentin* (9.0)
Total WAR: 91.8

Atlanta Braves: Andrelton Simmons (3.2), Mike Minor (4.6), Craig Kimbrel (7.3), Jason Heyward (13.0), Freddie Freeman (2.7), Brandon Belt** (3.3), Kris Medlen (6.2), Yunel Escobar* (17.6), Tommy Hanson* (9.1), Jarrod Saltalamacchia* (3.9), Matt Harrison** (9.1), Jonny Venters (3.1)
Total WAR: 83.1

Baltimore Orioles: Manny Machado (4.4), Brian Matusz (3.9), Matt Wieters (13.2), Zach Britton (2.7), Nick Markakis (21.0)
Total WAR: 45.2

Boston Red Sox: Will Middelbrooks (1.3), Anthony Rizzo** (2.3), Justin Masterson* (12.6), Josh Reddick* (5.9), Jacoby Ellsbury (18.8), Clay Buchholz (11.4), Jed Lowrie* (6.9), Dustin Pedroia (31.1), Jonathan Papelbon* (17.4)
Total WAR: 107.7

Chicago Cubs: Josh Donaldson** (4.0), Darwin Barney (4.8), Tyler Colvin* (2.8), Jeff Samardzija (4.9), Sean Marshall* (9.4)
Total WAR: 25.9

Chicago White Sox: Chris Sale (8.3), Addison Reed (2.0), Gordon Beckham (4.4), Daniel Hudson* (7.6),  Gio Gonzalez** (12.5)
Total WAR: 34.8

Cincinnati Reds: Mike Leake (4.1), Yonder Alonso* (2.2), Todd Frazier (4.9), Zack Cozart (3.5), Drew Stubbs* (8.9), Jay Bruce (12.7), Homer Bailey (8.5)
Total WAR: 44.8

Cleveland Indians:  Jason Kipnis (5.0), Josh Tomlin (2.1), Vinnie Pestano (2.3)
Total WAR: 9.4

Colorado Rockies: Rex Brothers (2.6), Troy Tulowitski (26.6), Seth Smith* (7.8), Chris Iannetta* (9.6), Dexter Fowler (7.9)
Total WAR: 54.5

Detroit Tigers: Drew Smyly (2.6), Alex Avila (7.8), Rick Porcello (9.6), Cameron Maybin* (7.9), Matt Joyce* (8.8), Justin Verlander (41.2)
Total WAR: 77.9

Houston Astros: Jason Castro (1.9), Chris Johnson* (2.0), Bud Norris (5.8), Hunter Pence* (21.1), Ben Zobrist** (24.2)
Total WAR: 55

Kansas City Royals:  Mike Moustakas (3.3), Greg Holland (4.7), Luke Hochevar (8.3), Alex Gordon (19), Billy Butler (9.0), Mike Aviles* (6.8)
Total WAR: 51.1

LA Angels: Mike Trout (13.6), Jordan Walden* (2.7), Peter Bourjos (8.3), Jered Weaver (28.3), Mark Trumbo (5.6), Sean Rodriguez* (5.4)
Total WAR: 63.9

LA Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw(24.0), Chad Billingsley (17.0), Matt Kemp (20.0), A.J. Ellis (6.0)
Total WAR: 67

Miami Marlins: Giancarlo Stanton (10.9), Chris Volstad* (3.9), Gaby Sanchez* (4.9), Jason Vargas* (7.6)
Total WAR: 27.3

Milwaukee Brewers: Brett Lawrie** (5.4), Jonathan Lucroy (5.9), Ryan Braun (32.7), Michael Brantley** (3.1), Yovani Gallardo (15.5), Lorenzo Cain* (3.9), Rickie Weeks (16.9)
Total WAR: 83.4

Minnesota Twins: Ben Revere* (4.6), Matt Garza* (15.8), Kevin Slowey* (8.3), Glen Perkins (5.5)
Total WAR: 34.2

NY Mets: Matt Harvey (3.7), Ike Davis (4.5), Daniel Murphy (7.8), Mike Pelfry* (8.6), Jon Niese (7.0), Phil Humber* (2.8)
Total WAR: 34.4

NY Yankees: Ian Kennedy* (11.3), Joba Chamberlain (7.5), David Robertson (6.4), Brett Gardner (16.1), Austin Jackson** (12.0), Phil Hughes (10.0), Tyler Clippard* (4.2)
Total WAR: 67.5

Oakland A's: A.J. Griffin (1.9), Sean Doolittle (2.2), Trevor Cahill* (8.4), Andrew Bailey* (4.9), Cliff Pennington* (5.9), Huston Street* (9.6), Kurt Suzuki* (12.0), Andre Ethier** (17.9)
Total WAR: 62.8

Philadelphia Phillies: Vance Worley* (4.1), J.A. Happ* (5.0), Michael Bourn* (21.0), Kyle Kendrick (3.3)
Total WAR: 33.4

Pittsburgh Pirates: Pedro Alvarez (3.4), Andrew McCutchen (21.0), Neil Walker (7.7), Paul Maholm* (14.6)
Total WAR: 46.7

San Diego Padres: Corey Luebke (3.0), David Freese** (8.0), Mat Latos* (11.5), Chase Headley (17.0), Nick Hundley (6.0), Will Venable (9.4)
Total WAR: 54.9

San Fransisco Giants: Buster Posey (14.9), Brandon Crawford (3.4), Madison Bumgarner (10.5), Tim Lincecum (27.1), Sergio Romo (6.5), Nate Schierholtz* (5.1)
Total WAR: 67.5

Seattle Mariners: Dustin Ackley (3.9), Kyle Seager (6.0), Brandon Morrow* (10.3), Doug Fister* (13.3), Adam Jones* (13.9)
Total WAR: 47.4

St. Louis Cardinals: Shelby Miller (2.0), Matt Carpenter (3.6), Lance Lynn (4.8), Allen Craig (5.6), Luke Gregorson** (3.9), Colby Rasmus* (9.3), Jamie Garcia (8.8), Jason Motte (3.3)
Total WAR: 41.3

Tampa Bay Rays: David Price (15.1), Matt Moore (3.6), Evan Longoria (32.0), Alex Cobb (3.8), Desmond Jennings (7.0), Jeremy Hellickson (3.4), Wade Davis* (4.3)
Total WAR: 69.2

Texas Rangers: Mitch Moreland (2.5), Chris Davis* (4.3), Derek Holland (9.4), John Danks** (16.4), Ian Kinsler (27.5)
Total WAR: 60.1

Toronto Blue Jays: J.P. Arencibia (2.2), Brett Cecil (4.0), Rickey Romero (8.7), Casey Janssen (5.5), Aaron Hill* (18.8), Shaun Marcum* (12.3), Ryan Roberts* (5.9)
Total WAR: 57.4

Washington Nationals (Expos): Bryce Harper (6.3), Stephen Strasburg (9.0), Danny Espinosa (6.6), Ross Detwiler (3.6), Jordan Zimmermann (9.7), Ryan Zimmerman (32.1), Ian Desmond (8.4)
Total WAR: 75.7

Top 5 teams: Red Sox, Diamondbacks, Brewers,  Braves, Tigers
Boston benefits from having several All-Stars that have been in the league for a while now, such as Pedroia,
Ellsbury and Buccholz.  They've managed to retain those star players to build around.  Papelbon left once he became eligable for free agency last year, but provided most of his value in a Red Sox uniform.

Arizona has drafted a lot of talent, but most of those players no longer reside in the desert.  They still get credit for drafting them, but in some cases (Scherzer, Upton) they may have given up on them too early.

Ryan Bruan is by far the Brewers most valuable player, but players like Gallardo and Weeks have provided steady value for several years.

The Braves have more names listed next to their team than any other on this list and have managed to retain their best young players to form a core group that should be successful for years.

More than half of Detroit's value comes from Verlander, who has the highest WAR of any player drafted since 2003.  The Tigers have paid a hefty price to add other pieces to become a contender, but they would be nowhere without their ace.

Bottom 5 teams: Indians, Cubs, Marlins, Phillies, Twins
No team has drafted worse in the past decade than Cleveland.  Jason Kipnis is the closest thing they have to being an All-Star from their draft class.  Of course the Indians aren't exactly barren of young talent, as this list doesn't factor in undrafted players like Carlos Santana.
It's a good thing Theo Epstein is in charge in Chicago now because the Cubs are in dire need of a makeover.  Theo was in charge when most of the Red Sox talent on this list was drafted, so hopefully he can do the same to turn around the Cubs.

Anytime the Marlins draft anyone of value they end up trading them soon after.  That may help keep costs down and stock the farm system, but as far as prospects that have gone on to make an impact, there isn't much there aside from Stanton.

The Phillies core players were all drafted over ten years ago, so they are thin on young talent.  Domonic Brown may finally be having the long awaited break out season, but he hasn't done enough yet to make up for his early career where he was replacement level or worse.

Outside of closer Glen Perkins, the Twins have no talent that they drafted themselves this decade that still remain with the team. 

Monday, May 6, 2013

What do the Celtics do now?

You knew they would go down fighting.  There was just no quit in this team and you knew they would give it everything they had.  In the end, it wasn't enough for the undermanned and overmatched Celtics to overcome a powerful Knicks team.  Then again, we knew that before the series even started.

With their first round exit putting an end to their season, the question remains - what's next?

The direction of this franchise hinges on the future of their two veteran leaders.  The fates of Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett undoubtedly are tied together.  They will either both be back, or neither of them will be.

Pierce has one year left on his current deal worth $15.3 million for next season, but it includes a team option
where Boston can buy him out for only $5 million.  The Captain is coming off another productive season, yet one that showed signs he may be slipping as his efficiency declined.  His .436 field goal percentage was the worst it has been in a decade and his .787 mark from the free throw line is far closer to league average than what we've come to expect from him.  This decline could partially be explained by his mid-season role change that forced him to carry the offense after Rajon Rondo's season ending injury.  It also could be a sign of a 35 year old playing on his last legs.  While he still managed to lead the team in scoring through the team's six playoff games, it came at a cost of some ugly shooting numbers.  His shot often looked flat while he was clearly running out of gas.  When he comes back another year older with more mileage piling up on his veteran body, the result would likely be similar.  Pierce can certainly remain a solid contributor in a reduced role at this stage of his career, but he can no longer carry a team on his back for long stretches, which means his value doesn't match his price tag anymore.  That makes it conceivable that the Celtics could make the difficult decision of parting ways with their franchise player after 15 years wearing green.