Tuesday, January 15, 2013

NBA All-Star starters

The NBA will announce it's starters for this year's All-Star game later this week.  Since voting for the starters is done by the fans, it typically becomes more of a popularity contest rather than a showcase of the most deserving players. 

Voting should be done primarily based on how players have performed this season, with previous history also playing a small factor.  That previous history often plays too large of a factor, with casual fans voting based on name recognition, even if a player has long passed their prime.  Remember when Allen Iverson kept getting voted in after he was washed up and the entire nation of China voted for Yao every year, regardless of if he was injured and not playing?  Pretty sure he still gets some write in votes, even though he's been retired for a couple years.

With that in mind, here is who I would vote in for the All-Star game starters.  Also note that these are only the starters, so many of those I list in the honorable mention category will deservedly make the team when the reserves are selected.

East

Backcourt:
Rajon Rondo
(13.2 PTS, 5.2 REB, 11.2 AST, 1.8 STL, 18.69 PER)
Photo by CJ Legner
Rondo is the engine that makes the Celtic's offense run.  He's taken on more of a leadership role this season as the team begins to transition away from the aging veterans.  He's raised his scoring and rebounding to career highs while shooting nearly 50% from the floor, better than any other point guard in the East.  He leads the league in assists by a wide margin and had an impressive stretch earlier this season that saw him take a run at Magic Johnson's record for consecutive games with double digit assists.  He also showed his all around talent by recently recording his third triple-double of the season (26th of his career - including postseason).  When it comes to finding a pure, unselfish point guard to lead a team of All-Stars, you won't find a better option than Rondo.

Dwyane Wade
(20.1 PTS, 4.6 REB, 4.3 AST, 1.3 STL, 22.50 PER)
He may have lost a step, but Wade is still one of only three players in the league, at any position, averaging over 20 points per game while shooting over 50% from the field.  Most of his numbers have dipped to the lowest they have been since his rookie season, but he's still the second option on offense for the East's top team.  Besides, what other SG are you going to take from the East instead?  His PER is the best among East shooting guards, but that probably says more about the lack of depth at the position in the conference.  You could make a case that Kyrie Irving's score first mentality would allow him to start alongside Rondo and his stats match up comparably to Wade's (Irving has the edge in most traditional stats, with Wade having a slight edge in advanced stats like PER and EWA).

Honorable Mentions: Kyrie Irving, Jrue Holiday, Deron Williams, Brandon Jennings

Frontcourt:
LeBron James
(26 PTS, 8.2 REB, 6.9 AST, 1.7 STL, 29.70 PER)
The reigning MVP has to be the most obvious choice on the ballot.  He's the best player in the league on the East's best team.  When the Heat play small ball, LeBron moves to the power forward spot, which has helped increase his rebounding and field goal percentage to career highs.  He hasn't relied on the three pointer as often as he has in most previous years, but picking his spots to launch from deep has helped him become a more efficient shooter, hitting a career best 40% from beyond the arc.  When the league's best player keeps finding ways to improve, it's scary to think just how great he can become.

Carmelo Anthony
(29.3 PTS, 6.2 REB, 2.4 AST, 1.0 STL, 25.81 PER)
Melo has led the Knicks to a surprising start that has them on the heels of the Heat for the top spot in the East.  Being without an injured Amare Stoudemire allowed the Knicks to move Anthony to power forward, where he's strong enough to battle other big men, but quick enough to drive by them.  The result has been a huge boost for the offense (3rd in the league in offensive efficiency).  Part of that has been the Knicks unsustainable rate of three point shooting, but it's the threat of Melo down in the post that leaves so many of those shooters open.  He's second in the league in scoring with a career best average.  After a down season last year, Melo has bounced back with the best season of his career.

Tyson Chandler
(12.4 PTS, 10.9 REB, 0.9 AST, 1.0 BLK, 21.51 PER)
I really wanted this spot to go to Kevin Garnett, who will likely win the fan vote, but that would be the type of homer/name brand pick that I'm trying to discourage.  KG is still a key part to the Celtics defense.  They lead the league in defensive efficiency when he's on the court, but have been awful without him.  Since he plays less than 30 minutes per game, it's dropped the team's efficiency to only 8th in the league.  That's still a higher ranking than the Knicks, but that's of no fault to the reigning Defensive Player of the Year.  Chandler has a ridiculous True Shooting percentage of .694, mostly because almost all of his shots come off lobs and put backs.  He also has KG beat in rebound rate (19.1), PER (21.51) and EWA (6.6).

Honorable Mentions: Kevin Garnett, Chris Bosh, Brook Lopez, Paul Pierce, Josh Smith, Paul George

West

Backcourt
Chris Paul
(16.8 PTS, 3.5 REB, 9.7 AST, 2.6 STL, 26.60 PER)
CP3 is hands down the best point guard in the league.  His arrival in Los Angeles last season turned the Clippers from a perennial joke into a playoff team and he's now taken them to another level this year as a legitimate contender.  He leads all Western guards in assists, steals and PER.  He's a master of setting up his teammates while controlling the pace of the game and picking his spots to take over as a scorer when his team needs him to.

James Harden
(26.5 PTS, 4.3 REB, 5.3 AST, 1.9 STL, 23.35 PER)
Most people will go with the league's leading scorer, Kobe Bryant, but Harden deserves credit for the jump he's made since leaving the shadow of Kevin Durant in OKC.  Statistically, the Beard and the Black Mamba are very similar, with Kobe's edge in scoring being offset by Harden's superior ability as a distributor.  What it boils down to in my mind is that Harden went to a Rockets team expected to be in the lottery and turned them into a playoff contender.  Meanwhile, Kobe had two other super star caliber players join him and the result has been nothing but a massive disappointment for a Lakers team that currently looks unlikely to even make the playoffs.  Not that the Lakers struggles have been all his fault.  Kobe is scoring more than he has in years, but doing it far more efficiently than ever before.  Yet the Lakers still have a losing record (10-16) when Kobe is the game's high scorer, but are 6-5 when he's not.  Harden has taken on the scoring burden for a young team on the rise and turned them into a winning squad.

Honorable Mentions: Kobe Bryant, Russell Westbrook, Tony Parker, Stephen Curry

Frontcourt
Kevin Durant
(28.9 PTS, 7.6 REB, 4.2 AST, 1.5 STL, 1.3 BLK, 28.84 PER)
After falling short in last year's Finals, Durant is as motivated as ever to push his young Thunder team to the next level.  The departure of Harden has led to Durant playing in increased role as a ball handler and distributor (career high in assists), without sacrificing from his primary role as a scorer.  He can score from anywhere on the court at one of the league's most efficient rates (.652 TS%).  If Durant can keep the Thunder at the top of the West standings, he'll make a compelling choice for MVP.

Blake Griffin
(17.7 PTS, 8.6 REB, 3.2 AST, 1.5 STL, 22.52 PER)
The All-Star game is all about entertainment and there are few things in the NBA more entertaining that watching Griffin throw down a thunderous alley oop.  His style was tailor made for a game like this, but he's also earned it based on his production.  While his scoring and rebounding have dropped for the third straight season, so have his minutes.  The Clippers have one of the league's deepest rosters, which has allowed them to cut back on the minutes of their star players to keep them fresh for what they hope will be a deep playoff run.  Griffin has become more than just a dunker, as he continues to add post moves to his arsenal and an improved mid-range jumper has made him more of a factor in the pick-and-pop role.

Tim Duncan
(17.1 PTS, 9.6 REB, 2.7 AST, 2.7 BLK, 24.36 PER)
Just when we thought Father Time had finally caught up to him, the Big Fundamental turns back the clock with a vintage performance.  His overall numbers are a step behind the other elite players on this list, but that's mostly due to playing only a shade over 30 minutes per game.  His PER is 4th best in the West, showing how productive he's been on a per minute basis. 

Honorable Mentions: Marc Gasol, All Jefferson, Serge Ibaka, David Lee, Nicolas Batum, Dwight Howard

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