The idea may not be as crazy as you might think. After GM Ben Cherington jettisoned high profile players in Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett and Carl Crawford at last season's trade deadline - a move that saved the franchise a quarter of a billion dollars in long term salary - it's clear the front office isn't afraid to make bold decisions in their effort to restructure the struggling team.
Ellsbury broke out in 2011 with a monstrous season in which he was arguably the best all around player in the league and likely would have taken home the MVP award if not for a dominant season from Justin Verlander that resulted in a rare first place finish for a pitcher. Ellsbury hit .321/.376/.552 with 32 HRs and 39 steals while playing Gold Glove defense at a premier position. After years of being a spark plug at the top of the line-up who used his blazing speed (career high 70 steals in 2009) to be a game changer, he proved himself to be a well rounded five tool player. As he entered the prime of his career, Ellsbury appeared to be on the path to being one of the game's best players.
Despite those accomplishments, Ellsbury's resume is not without it's warts. He has missed substantial time in two of the past three years. Broken ribs limited him to only 18 games in 2010, thanks in part to the injury initially being mis-diagnosed and leading to Ellsbury's relationship with the franchise souring. Now he's coming off a season where he played only 74 games and wasn't close to duplicating the type of production from the previous year even when he was healthy. The shoulder injury he was recovering from may have been responsible for sapping his power after he returned, but considering his career high in home runs prior to 2011 was only 9, it's possible that the 32 he hit two years ago was an outlier rather than a sign of blossoming power potential. That's not to say that he's destined to fall back to single digit homers the rest of his career, but a ceiling in the mid-20's seems more accurate.
With that in mind, what's Ellsbury's worth to the Red Sox in the long run? He'll turn 30 years old before the end of next season. That means his next contract will likely only include a couple more of his prime years before he hits an inevitable decline. Players like him that rely so much on their speed tend not to age well. Yet if he enjoys a productive season this year anywhere near his 2011 level then you can count on him looking for a pricey long term deal. He's likely to get it from someone, but that doesn't mean it has to be the Red Sox, who are attempting to shift back to a philosophy of financial responsibility. The market will be set this winter by a current free agent crop of center fielders that includes Josh Hamilton (if you still consider him capable of playing CF), Michael Bourn and BJ Upton. Ellsbury's contract next off-season will probably fall somewhere in their range. Depending on how he performs this season will determine if it's closer to the Hamilton side or the Upton end.
Another factor to keep in mind is whether Ellsbury even wants to stay in Boston. Given how the past two seasons have ended, you certainly can't blame him for looking around for alternatives. While the team has begun the process of cleaning house to fix the clubhouse issues that dragged them down, his recent experiences with the team may have turned him off to the idea of staying. It certainly didn't help that the team traded away Jed Lowrie, his only friend on the team. The Sox need to drastically improve the culture of their team in a hurry if they hope to convince him to stay. Even then, it'll likely take a truck load of money to get a new deal done.
The term "bridge year" isn't one that Red Sox Nation likes to hear, but that's what they are in. After shedding payroll last season, the team isn't likely to jump right back in by using the money they saved to hand out big contracts to free agents - especially when the top of this year's crop (Josh Hamilton, Zach Grienke) come with so many question marks. If the team isn't going all in to contend this season then holding on to Ellsbury seems short sighted if they don't plan to re-sign him. With exciting young prospects like Jackie Bradley, Jr. waiting in the wings, the money that would be used to sign Ellsbury could be put to better use elsewhere, while prospects gained by trading Ellsbury would also help to improve their farm system and fill some other holes on the roster.
The past two seasons have left a sour taste in the mouths of Red Sox fans, who historically aren't known for their patience when it comes to rebuilding efforts. Trading Ellsbury now would not be well received given his popularity in Boston, in addition to the fact that it signals the team is essentially giving up on the season before it even begins. Coming off a down, injury plagued season, the team would be selling low at this point anyway.
If the team finds itself falling out of contention in July, then that would be the time to trade him. That gives him some time to re-establish his value with a healthy and productive first half. There could also be more bidders for his services in the trade market at that time. With the free agent market currently loaded with premium CF options, there may not be many teams willing to give up prospects for a one year rental.
Boras will undoubtedly point to his 2011 season as an indicator of his talent, but paying him the big contract he will covet would be overpaying for past production, not paying for a reasonable expectation of what they should expect him to produce over the course of the new deal. The Red Sox already learned that lesson the hard way with their deals for Lackey, Crawford and Beckett's extension. Don't expect them to make that mistake again for a veteran on the wrong side of 30.
I've always been a big fan of Ellsbury and it would be a shame to see him go, but if he's not in the team's future plans then the best course for the franchise would be to get something for him before they lose him for nothing.
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