Patriots Draft

This Thursday evening the NFL will begin it's annual draft.  While there won't be much suspense in the early going, since we already know where Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III are headed, there is still plenty of options for other teams as we get deeper into the draft.  This is especially true for the Patriots, who enter the draft armed with 5 of the top 93 picks.

Considering 6 of their top 7 picks last year were made on offensive players, you would expect the Patriots to focus primarily on defense this year.  New England has plenty of holes to fill in a defense that ranked 31st in the league last year, giving up a staggering 411.1 yards per game.  The pass defense was the main reason for their defensive struggles and the revolving door in the secondary certainly didn't help.  The pass rush could also use an upgrade, as last year's team leaders in sacks are no longer with the team.  Mark Anderson signed with Buffalo, while Andre Carter is still recovering from last year's season ending injury and remains an unsigned free agent.

Trying to predict what Bill Belichick will do during a draft is a near impossible task, as he tends to zig when everyone else assumes he'll zag.  They don't call him "Trader Bill" for nothing, so you have to consider the possibility that the Patriots won't stay in their current draft position with all of their picks.  The Patriots once again own multiple first round picks.  We've seen the past couple seasons that when faced with a similar scenario, Belichick has been willing to trade out of the first round with one of the picks.  By doing so he has been able to move back to a second round pick while also picking up a first round pick for the following year.  So essentially by moving that first rounder back another year they are picking up a free second round pick.  It's a sound strategy for a team that stresses getting the most value out of their picks.

On the other hand, you have to wonder when the team will put more emphasis on drafting impact players instead of just waiting for value picks.  Getting all those extra picks is nice, but in doing so the Patriots have passed on chances to draft quality players such as Clay Matthews, Dez Bryant and Mark Ingram (all players that were selected with a pick the Patriots traded away).  After all, Tom Brady isn't getting any younger.  At 35 years old, the window this team has to win another title with their future Hall of Fame QB is starting to narrow.  Could this be the year that Belichick cashes in on the stockpile of picks he's accumulated by packaging picks to move up in the draft for a real difference maker?  Changes in the CBA agreement prior to last season may make that scenario more likely, as the rookie salary scale makes it less expensive, therefore less risky, to select a player higher in the draft.  That may make it more enticing to move up in the draft given that the financial impact won't be nearly as steep as it would have been in the past and they have the ammunition to get a deal done.  It will be interesting to see how the new rules will impact draft day trades this year, but rumor has it that plenty of teams in the top half of the draft are still willing to trade down.  The Patriots may be willing to pounce if the right offer comes along.

With all that said, let's explore the Patriots top needs entering the draft, as well as some of the potential options that may fall to them.

Safety
The secondary is in need of some major upgrades, with safety being it's weakest spot.  The Strong Safety spot was a revolving door for most of the year before the team finally settled on James Ihedigbo late in the season.  While he was an improvement over what they had before, the spot could still use an upgrade and certainly needs more depth.  With Free Safety Patrick Chung entering the final year of his current contract, the team could use some insurance for the future as well.

The top Safety in the draft is widely considered to be Alabama's Mark Barron.  He's not likely to last until the 27th pick, but he may be the type of player the Patriots are willing to move up to acquire since he fills a major need and projects to be an elite player at the position.  If they are unable to move up for Barron then they could wait on someone like Harrison Smith if he falls into the second round. 

If no intriguing options at Safety make it to their spot they could also consider adding to their secondary by selecting another Cornerback.  The position looks fairly stable with Devin McCourty, Klye Arrington and Ras-I Dowling, but they could always use more depth.  It also opens the option of using McCourty at Safety, where he saw some time last year.

Defensive End/Defense Tackle/Outside Linebacker
They say that battles are won in the trenches, so upgrading the front of the defense is generally a solid tactic.  The Right Defensive End spot in particular has been a position the Patriots have had trouble filling since Richard Seymour left town.  The Patriots need to improve their pass rush, which should improve their defense just as much as the upgrades in the secondary would.  The Patriots tend to covet versatile players capable of playing DE or OLB, depending on whether they are in a 3-4 or 4-3 defensive set.

DE options that could fall to their spots in the first round include Nick Perry, Andre Branch, or Courtney Upshaw.  Branch and Upshaw both have the versatility to play DE or OLB, so they may fit the Patriots system best.  Upshaw may require trading up a few spots if they really want him.

DT options could include Michael Brockers, Kendall Reyes or Jerel Worthy.  None of them project to be more than average as a pass rusher, but could be solid run stuffers up the middle.

Offensive Line
Given the uncertainty of the futures of Matt Light and Brian Waters, who have each hinted at considering retirement, the Patriots may look to add depth to their offensive line.  Sebastian Vollmer's history with back injuries has to be a concern as well.  If Tom Brady is the most important player on this team then making sure he has adequate protection must be a priority.

With Dan Koppen and Dan Connelly both expected back for at least this upcoming season, Center doesn't appear to be an immediate need, but keep in mind that Koppen is coming off a season ending injury and Connelly's natural position is at Guard.  If they are looking to use a first round pick on this position then Peter Konz would be a good choice.

If they look to add more depth at the Guard or Tackle spots then Mike Adams or Brandon Brooks could be options if they fall to their spot in the second round.

Wide Receiver
The Patriots are currently pretty stacked at the position, especially since their biggest off-season acquisition thus far was Brandon Lloyd.  Considering their Tight Ends are such a big part of the passing game, a rookie WR isn't likely to see many snaps.  That makes it unlikely they'll use a first round pick at the position, but they may consider using one of their mid-round picks on someone that they can develop for the future.  Given their poor luck developing receivers in recent years it may make them a bit gun shy about taking on another project at the position, but past failures should not prevent them from trying again.

Predictions

The best option in the first round in terms of talent and need would be Mark Barron.  A popular rumor floating around it that New England may be able to trade up in the first round, potentially packaging both of their first round picks to move up to Seattle's pick at the #12 spot.  They may also be able to pick up a 4th round pick in this scenario.  Barron could be a difference maker for this team and a bold move to trade up for him would be an exciting start to the draft for the Patriots.

Until a deal can be agreed to, we have to assume that the Patriots will be selecting in their current positions (even if that appears unlikely given their history).  With the selections they currently have, here is what my ideal draft would look like for New England.  Keep in mind we don't know that these players will actually still be available when it's the Patriots turn to pick, but we can realistically expect that they will be on their radar and available around the time their pick comes up.  If they aren't lucky enough to have one of these players fall to that spot, they could potentially trade up a few spots if necessary to obtain them.

Round 1 (pick 27) - Michael Brockers (DT)

Round 1 (pick 31) - Harrison Smith (S)

Round 2 (pick 48) - Andre Branch (DE/OLB)
Round 2 (pick 62) - Brandon Brooks (G)
Round 3 (pick 93) - Mike Martin (DT)
Round 4 (pick 126) - Chris Givens (WR)