Super Bowl XLVI Preview

Super Bowl XLVI features a rematch from four years ago between the New England Patriots and New York Giants.  In that historic 2007 season, the Patriots rode an undefeated record into the Super Bowl, behind record setting TD performances from Tom Brady and Randy Moss, only to be stopped just short of perfection.  It was a gut wrenching loss for the Patriots and their fans, who will forever be tormented by images of an impossible helmet catch that was just one of many bad breaks that led to their demise.

This is now a different season, so while the teams may remain the same, the rosters have each seen a lot of overhaul since that game.  In order to properly preview this match up, we can't just look at a game that happened four years ago, we need to compare the major aspects of each team to break down how they match up against each other.

Regular Season

The Patriots earned the top seed in the AFC with a 13-3 record.  Tom Brady added another spectacular season to his resume, but concerns about the defense kept them from being considered a dominant team.  Like every team in the league this season, they are not without their flaws, but with a prolific offense on their side, they've proven that they always have a chance to win.

The Giants squeaked into the playoffs with a much needed victory in the season's final week against the Cowboys to clinch the division and grab the 4th seed in the NFC with a 9-7 record.  The Giants will have history working against them, as no team with single digit wins in the regular season has ever won a Super Bowl, while no team with a negative point differential in the regular season has ever even been to a Super Bowl (the Giants were -6 this season).

These two teams met earlier this season, in Week 9, which resulted in another Giants victory.  The game started out ugly, with neither team able to score in the first half, before picking up with a furious pace in the 4th quarter.  The Patriots thought they had victory in hand when they scored to take a lead with about a minute and a half left, only to watch their much maligned defense give up the game winning TD with 15 seconds left.  The ending was eerily similar to their Super Bowl loss, with the last minute scoring drive being aided by an unlikely key play.  In the Super Bowl it was the helmet catch.  This time it was a bonehead pass interference penalty on Sergio Brown that gave the Giants the ball at New England's 1 yard line and set up Manning's TD pass to Jake Ballard.  David Tyree has been out of the league ever since his miracle catch, while Brown has been relegated back to his rightful role on special teams instead of the defensive backfield, so neither of those plays is likely to happen again.

Too much has been made of the fact that the Patriots didn't beat a single team that finished with a winning record until their playoff victory over Baltimore.  They can't help who is on their schedule, and that stat discounts the fact that they won 7 tough games against teams that finished 8-8.  The Giants may have sneaked out a win in their head-to-head match up, but the Patriots still had the better overall regular season.

Edge: Patriots

Offense

Eli Manning is coming off the best regular season of his career.  Falling just short of 5,000 yards passing for the season, Manning's stats finally back up the notion that Giants fans have felt for years - that Eli is indeed an elite QB.  He had more 4th quarter TDs than any QB in the league (18) along with a 111.9 QB rating in the 4th quarter to cement his reputation for heroic comebacks.  He's aided by a trio of explosive receivers in Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham.  Cruz had a breakout year, finishing 3rd in the league in receiving yards with 1,536 (how the Patriots managed to allow Cruz to slip through their fingers and become an undrafted free agent when he played his college ball at UMass is beyond me).  The passing attack is dangerous, but the offense overall is hardly dominant.  They did at least finish in the top 10 in total yards and scoring.  However, they were last in the league in rushing yards (89.2 per game) and yards per attempt (3.5).  That's a drastic change for a team that historically has been known to pound the ball.  Some of that lack of production in the running game can be attributed to Ahmad Bradshaw missing 4 games, but it's also a sign of the team's offensive philosophy moving more towards a passing attack.  The lack of balance could become a factor in this game, especially if the Giants struggle to hold a late game lead.

As good as the Giants offense has been, the Patriots have been better.  It all starts with Tom Brady, who not only finished with the second most passing yards this season (5,235), but the second most yards in a single season in the history of the league (Drew Brees set the new record, as each of them passed Dan Marino's previous record).  The offense primarily runs two tight end sets, with young stars Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez featured prominently in the game plan.  Gronkowski led the league in TD catches this year and set a new single season record for TDs and receiving yards by a tight end.  Then there's the reliable Wes Welker, who led the league in receptions and finished second in receiving yards.  The Patriots were second in the league in yards per game and third in scoring.  Despite an unstoppable passing attack, the Patriots still managed to remain in the middle of the pack in rushing (20th), showing a bit more balance than the Giants.  When needed, they can turn to Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis to churn down the clock, knowing they can rely on him to pick up tough yards and protect the football (the Law Firm has never fumbled in his career - crap, I hope I didn't just jinx him!).  With Tom Terrific leading the way, the Patriots have every reason to be confident that their offense is in good hands.

Edge: Patriots

Defense
The defense has been the Achilles heel of the Patriots all season, but let's keep things in perspective.  True, they've given up more yards than any team to ever reach the Super Bowl.  So it's clearly not a great defense, but it's not as horrible as the stats make things seem.  For one thing, their high scoring offense forces teams to throw against them late in games, which pads their stats in garbage time and skews these stats.  There is a reason that the only team that gave up more yards this season was the 15-1 Packers.  The Patriots also struggled with a rash of injuries, missing key players such as Patrick Chung and Brandon Spikes for big chunks of the season, while the secondary was a revolving door for most of the season.  The defense is as stable now as it has been all season, which is why they've played much better thus far in the postseason.  Even though the Patriots gave up a ton of yards, you don't win football games just by gaining yards.  You do it by scoring points.  Despite the yards they gave up, they finished a respectable 15th in the league in points allowed (21.4).  The Patriots defense played to their strengths, avoiding a lot of man to man defense and settling into a zone for the majority of games.  This allowed teams to convert the mid-range plays, while preventing the big plays.  They tightened up in the red zone to prevent touchdowns and capitalized on mistakes (3rd in the league in turnover differential).  It may not look pretty, but this defense is capable of coming through when it counts.

For all the talk about how awful the Patriots defense has been, let's not act as if the Giants defense was anything near elite.  They ranked 27th in yards allowed and actually gave up more points than the Patriots, ranking only 25th with 25.0 points per game allowed.  They do have a ferocious front four, led by Jason Pierre-Paul, who has developed into a beast of a pass rusher.  The battle in the trenches between the Giants pass rush and the Patriots tough offensive line will be one of the keys to this game.  The Giants know how to get after the QB, so if Tom Brady isn't given adequate protection then it will be a big advantage for the Giants.  Aside from their front four though, the Giants defense is fairly mediocre.  They also had their fair share of injuries on defense this year and are also healthier and playing better than ever at this point, but if Brady has time to throw then the Giants will have trouble stopping all of the Patriots weapons.

Edge: Giants

Special Teams
An often overlooked factor in the game, special teams played a huge role in the outcomes of the Championship games in each conference.  Baltimore lost after a missed field goal, while the 49ers fumbled their chances away (twice) on kick returns.  Neither team was particularly effective in the return game, as they each rated in the bottom half of the league in kick off return and punt return average.  They both fared a bit better in holding opponents on kick and punt returns, with the Patriots ranking a bit higher in each.

New England's Stephen Gostkowski (84.8) converted a noticeably higher percentage of field goals to New York's Lawrence Tynes (79.2).  Each kicker had a season high field goal distance of 50 yards.

Edge: Patriots

Health
In the first match up between these teams this year, the Giants were missing two key offensive pieces in Ahmad Bradshaw and Hakeem Nicks.  Both of them are banged up again, but expected to play.

Rob Gronkowski is the biggest question mark health wise heading into this game.  He had a scary moment in the win over Baltimore that saw his ankle twist in ways it was never meant to go.  While he later returned to that game, it's since been reported that he suffered a high ankle sprain.  He's yet to practice this week, but is at least no longer wearing a walking boot.  This injury typically takes 2-4 weeks to heal, so it would take the optimistic end of that time frame for Gronk to be healed in time for the game.  He's as tough as they come though, so expect him to do everything he can to get back on the field.  Considering so much of their offense revolves around him, the Patriots could be in trouble if he's missing or limited in this game.

Edge: Giants

Coaching
For a guy that seems to be on the hot season every year, Tom Coughlin is one of the league's best coaches.  He's an old school, no non-sense type, which is a style that doesn't always endear him to his players (just ask Tiki Barber).  Given his track record, he's earned their respect and is someone the Giants can count on to make the right decisions in the flow of a game.

On the other hand, Bill Belichick may be one of the all time greatest coaches.  He's won three Super Bowls and is widely considered by his peers to be a genius.  He's not afraid to make a gutsy call in a key moment and nobody has his team better prepared for a game than Belichick.  His game by game approach means he'll come prepared with a game plan designed for a specific opponent, so expect him to be well prepared for this game - especially considering how the last two meetings between them turned out.  Nobody beats Belichick three straight times.

Edge: Patriots


Intangibles
The Giants will enter this game with plenty of confidence.  They've won the last two meetings with the Patriots, so they know they can beat this team.  They also have all the faith in the world in Manning to lead them and perform in the clutch.  That wasn't necessarily the case four years ago, but he's since developed into an elite QB and a true leader.

In their last Super Bowl meeting, the Patriots had the weight of the world on their shoulders as they were attempting to become the first ever team to finish 19-0.  They won't have that added pressure weighing them down this time.  If anything, two straight losses to the Giants may have humbled them.  In 2008, nobody gave the Giants a chance to win that game, but plenty of people are picking them now.  That may spark the Patriots to rally around the "nobody believes in us" mantra that fueled them through the dynasty years that saw them win three Super Bowls in a four year span.  Plus, don't discount the aura that surrounds this team as they play out a season in remembrance of the late Myra Kraft, the wife of their team's owner, who passed away last year.  Robert Kraft seems to think it was his wife that pushed Billy Cundiff's kick wide in the Baltimore game.  While you may not believe in divine intervention, this team seems to believe it, as if they are destined to win another title for Mrs. Kraft.  If nothing else, it's an extremely motivating factor that appears to be pushing this team.

Edge: Patriots

Result
Despite that the strength of each team is on the offensive end, don't expect to see an offensive shoot out in this game.  At least not until the 4th quarter.  Each team will likely be cautious from the start as they attempt to feel each other out and attempt to gain an advantage.  The Patriots will want to establish their running game early to help negate the Giant's fearsome pass rush and open up play action passes. 

Winning the turnover battle will be key as well.  The Patriots were the top team in the AFC in turnover differential (+17), while the Giants were only 6th in the NFC (+7), but the Patriots have appeared sloppy in taking care of the ball in their last game against the Ravens and their Week 9 game against the Giants.  On the other hand, Manning is only a year removed from leading the league in INTs, so it's a concern for both sides.

The set up couldn't be any better for New England.  They have already marched through a tough road on their redemption tour that has seen them avenge playoff losses from previous years against Denver ('05) and Baltimore ('09) in addition to beating the Jets ('10) twice in the regular season to help keep them out of the playoffs.  Capping it off with a win in Indianapolis ('06) over the Giants ('07) would only be fitting.

Expect another thrilling finish in this game, where the last team with the ball may be the winner.  The Patriots have been the better team all year, so while it may be close, I expect them to finish on top.  Like their other Super Bowl victories from last decade, this one may very well be won with a late game field goal.

Prediction: Patriots 23, Giants 20