Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Things I Noticed: Week 8

As we approach the mid point of the season the list of contenders isn't any clearer than it was weeks ago. Just when we think a certain team belongs among the elite they take a step back.  Aside from perhaps the defending champion Packers, each of the contenders has a major flaw.  The Packers were off this week, but for many other teams, those flaws were on display.

Atlanta, Chicago, Oakland, Tampa Bay and the New York Jets were also off this week.

For the rest of the teams, here are some things I noticed this week.
  • Tom Brady was 6-1 in his career against the Steelers, but Ben Roethlisberger finally got the better of him by beating Brady at his own game.  When you think of the Steelers offense, you think of a tough pounding running game used to set up deep pass plays.  This time they worked primarily out of the spread offense, picking the Patriots defense apart with short passes on underneath routes.
    • You could tell early on that the Pats defense was in trouble after failing to stop TE Heath Miller from collecting 4 catches that totaled over half the field on the Steelers opening drive.  New England's defense has looked bad all year, in part because everyone always throws against them, but failing to stop the same play over and over again is a bad sign.
  • Part of what has ailed the Patriots defense is the inconsistency of their personnel.  Injuries have played a big part in that, but part problem with building chemistry in their secondary has been due to some surprising roster cuts made by Belichick.  Earlier this season the team released safeties Branden Merriweather and James Sanders.  Before this last game they released veteran CB Leigh Bodden. Whether the issues are with the defensive schemes or with the talent evaluation, the blame points just as much to the coaching as it does to the players themselves.  Perhaps Belichick needs more help in both those departments than he thinks. 
    • Brady finally looked himself late in the 4th quarter in leading a TD drive to make it a one possession game.  He connected with Rob Gronkowski for what looked like a TD, but the ball was ruled down at the one yard line, despite that replay seemed to show the ball had crossed the plane.  They scored two plays later, but the questionable call at the goal line cost them about two minutes off the clock, which came back to haunt them.
      • After a failed on side kick attempt, the Patriots weren't able to get the ball back again until there were only 19 seconds left in the game, without any time outs remaining.  Hence the importance of that lost time on the previous drive.  Not even Brady can lead a winning drive with that little time left, especially not when he fumbles away their last chance.  The Steelers batted the loose ball out of the back of the endzone, which should have been a penalty.  Instead, it was ruled a safety.
    • The struggles for Chris Johnson continue.  Not only did he have another poor performance, but back up Javon Ringer received an equal amount of carries (while being far more productive with his chances).  Despite the giant contract the team just gave him, the Titans appear ready to make this back field a time share.
    • Speaking of rushing issues, it can't be a good sign for the Colts if Curtis Painter (never to be confused with Michael Vick as a runner) easily led the team in rushing yards.
    • The biggest upset of the day goes to the Rams for shocking the Saints.  Some of the magic from the St. Louis Cardinals run to a World Series title must have rubbed off on the city's struggling football team.  The Rams hadn't scored more than 16 points in a game all season, but managed nearly twice that amount in their first win of the season.
    • Drew Brees already has 10 INTs this season, which is tied for the second most in the league.  Granted, he's also tied for second in TD passes, but he needs to cut down on the turnovers to avoid let downs like this.  The team did manage 21 points, but their first score didn't happen until late in the 3rd quarter.  For the majority of the game, the Saints offense didn't look like themselves against one of the league's most inept defenses.  They came in overconfident and were unable to adjust until it was too late.
    • Another 4th quarter collapse doomed the Dolphins as the Giants squeezed out a late victory.  Miami is well passed the point now of having to worry about losses like this, but the Giants should worry that this game was as close as it was.  There aren't any more easy match ups left on their schedule, which is about to get a lot more difficult.  
    • Reggie Bush had only the second 100+ yard rushing game of his career.  The first came back in his rookie year and also happened to be against the Giants.
    • Christian Ponder may not come with the hype or eye popping stats of Cam Newton, but he got the better of his fellow rookie in their head to head match up.  The Vikings offense looks so much different when being led by Ponder compared to the sluggish start that McNabb led earlier this season.  He'll continue to make some mistakes as he takes his lumps as a rookie, but he appears poised under pressure and picked up some key 3rd downs (the Vikings converted half of their 3rd down attempts as a team).  
    • Steve Smith had another 100 yard game that moved him to the top of the league in receiving yards on the season.  He's motivated to prove that his declining play the past couple of seasons had more to do with the QB talent he had to work with the past few years than any drop off in his own skills.  Through 8 games he already has tied the number of receptions he had in 14 games last year, and is close to matching his yardage total from the 15 games he played in 2009.
    • The Ravens cured their offensive struggles with a match up against the defensively challenged Cardinals.  Ray Rice led the way, scoring more TDs (3) than he had rushed for in his previous 6 games.
    • Kevin Kolb seems to always have one big play in him every game that inflates his numbers to look better than he's actually been playing.  This time it was a 66 yard bomb to Larry Fitzgerald.  Take that play away and Kolb completed less than half of his passes for a meager 87 yards.
    • The Texans rode Arian Foster (33 carries) to another victory.  When Andre Johnson returns to give the passing game a boost, perhaps they won't need to work Foster as hard.  In the meantime, it's surprising that they aren't looking to ease his work load by using more of Ben Tate, who has been very effective when given a chance.  He only got 5 carries this week, but 8.4 yards per carry shows he deserves more.  If they intend to make a deep playoff run they need to be careful not to overwork Foster, who struggled with a nagging hamstring injury earlier this year.
    • Luke McCown made a brief appearance in the first quarter and threw incomplete passes on both of his attempts.  Yet his 39.6 QB rating was still better than starter Blaine Gabbert's (26.7), who failed to throw for 100 yards in the game.  He completed only 10 of 30 passes at an average of only 3.2 yards per completion, while also throwing two interceptions.
    • The Bills have had their issues on defense this year, but that wasn't the case this week when they shut out the Redskins, while sacking John Beck 9 times.  Entering the game, the Bills had only recorded 4 sacks the entire season.
    • Speaking of Beck, he may not turn the ball over as much as Grossman, but he also has yet to win since taking over as the starting QB for Washington.  A shut out loss may make the team reconsider leaving him in that role.
    • Matthew Stafford was questionable coming into the game with an ankle injury, but nobody can question his talents after leading his Lions back to the win column with a rout of the Broncos.  
    • Tim Tebow was able to cover up his struggles in his season debut last week thanks to a late game comeback win over Miami the previous week, but against a talented Lions team his flaws were on full display.  He's a great athlete that can extend a drive with his legs, but until he learns to be more accurate as a passer he will continue to struggle against good teams.
    • Frank Gore got off to a slow start this season following off season hip surgery, but he's rolling now.  He rushed for over 125 yards and a TD for his 4th straight game, becoming only the 4th player since 1970 to accomplish feat.
    • The Browns running game has struggled without Peyton Hillis on the field, but things got even worse when Montario Hardesty was forced out early with an injury of his own.  Good thing they've been behind so often lately that the running game hasn't been a big factor anyway.
    • Tavaris Jackson returned this week, but Seattle remained in the loss column.  At least the offense looked better with Jackson under center.  Now that he and Sydney Rice are finally back on the field at the same time, they started to show some of the chemistry they started building in their days together in Minnesota.  
    • Speaking of chemistry, rookies Andy Dalton and A.J. Green certainly have it.  They connected for their 5th TD pass of the season, putting Green tied for third in the league for receiving TDs.
    • LeSean McCoy dominated the Cowboys, piling up 200 total yards and 2 TDs to lead the Eagles to victory.  The win pulls them into a three way tie with Dallas and Washington for 2nd place in the NFC East.
      • The Eagles are now 13-0 following a bye week under Andy Reid.
    • The vaunted Eagles secondary shut down the Cowboys top receivers, as both Dez Bryant and Miles Austin were each held to under 30 receiving yards.  The Eagles continued to have their issues stopping the run, but with a big lead they were soon able to take the running game out of the Cowboys plans.  
      • A week after setting a Cowboys rushing record, DeMarco Murray was held to only 8 carries, but still managed an impressive 74 yards (9.3 yards per carry).  Nobody expected him to match what he did against the Rams again, but it was a positive sign at least that his record performance wasn't a fluke.
    • The Chiefs won their 4th straight game to make a mess of the AFC West division, pulling into a tie with San Diego and Oakland.  This team looked left for dead after Week 3, but have turned things around while playing the best football of anyone in their division for the past month.
    • Wonder how the Chargers could look so good on paper and on the stat sheet, but still manage to lose so many games?  This loss was a classic example.  The Chargers had nearly put the game away, driving the ball deep into KC territory.  A couple of kneel downs would have let them run the clock down to only a few seconds left, at which point they'd use a time out before kicking the game winning FG.  Unfortunately for them, that's not what happened.  Rivers fumbled the snap, the Chiefs recovered and went on to beat the Chargers in OT.  Talk about snatching defeat from the jaws of victory!
    • The Rams may have gotten their first win of the season, but they've still scored the least amount of points in the league.  Their point differential  (-105) did improve to pass the Colts  (-131) though, due to Indy have given up a league worst 252 points this season.
    • With the Packers (+89) on a bye this week, the Lions (+92) were able to squeeze by them for the lead in point differential.
    • After winning in Week 1, the Arizona Cardinals have dropped 6 straight games.  That's the longest losing streak in the league, aside from the two winless teams.

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