You may have heard this before, but Red Sox fans are disappointed with the play of J.D. Drew. That seems to have been the story for Drew since he arrived in Boston after inking a 5 year, $70 Million deal.
For a variety of reasons, Drew has never been accepted by Red Sox Nation. Many believe he is overpaid. His soft spoken nature hasn't gone over well in a big market city that craves a sense of charisma from it's star players. He seems almost robotic on the field, never showing emotion. He could take a called strike three at the plate and his facial expression wouldn't reveal a clue about whether he just struck out or walked. He doesn't dive for balls or go crashing into walls like the dirt dog style players fans tend to embrace. He also has a frustrating habit of being left out of the line-up due to nagging injuries that have kept him from playing in no more than 140 games in a season since coming to Boston. His style of play is so smooth and effortless than fans often mistake him for not caring enough. They of course are as wrong about this as they have been wrong about Drew's value to the team during his career in Boston.
There's no doubt that Drew can be a frustrating player to watch at times, particularly when he's in a slump. Yet he's also capable of getting red hot at the plate and carrying a team for stretches at a time. He's been a streaky player his whole career, but at the end of the year the numbers are typically where you would expect them to be for a player of his caliber.
Casual fans ridicule him for not living up to his contract because he doesn't hit 30+ Home Runs or drive in 100 RBIs every year, but more modern statistics show that Drew has still been one of the most valuable outfielders in the league for most of his contract. His best season in Boston was 2009, when he batted .279 with a .392 OBP and Slugged .522. His OBP was good for 2nd best amongst AL outfielders, while his SLG was 4th best in the league at his position. He only hit 24 HRs and drove in 84 runs, but that's not where the value in Drew's game comes from. At his best, he's the type of player that gets on base at a high rate, hits for decent power and plays above average defense in one of the game's toughest right fields at Fenway Park. That season he earned a 5.0 WAR according to FanGraphs, meaning he was worth an additional 5 wins more than a replacement level player. On the open market, 1 WAR is typically valued at approximately $5 million, so you could make a case that season that Drew was actually underpaid. His previous season was very similar, when he earned a 4.1 WAR. Those two seasons alone made him well worth his contract. Even his other two full seasons in a Red Sox uniform, while not quite at that elite level, were still well above average.
At least until this year.
2011 has thus far been a dismal landslide for Drew. His .233/.321/.309 slash line are well below his career averages. He's striking out more (20.7 K%) and walking less (12.2 BB%). His career low BABIP could be a sign of some bad luck, but it's more likely caused by swinging at bad pitches and making weak contact.
Perhaps he just needs to find his groove, but time is running out. Manager Terry Francona typically gives a long leash to his veteran starters to let them figure things out, and he seems convinced that Drew could go on one of his patented hot streaks at any time. But as the sample size grows, at what point does a slump turn into a sign of a declining career? Drew is 35 years old and in the last year of his contract. He's not expected to return next season and has even hinted at retirement. A changing of the guards is coming soon in right field, but instead of waiting until next season, perhaps the time to make a move has already arrived.
The future belongs to promising your stars like Ryan Kalish or Josh Reddick. With so much money being committed this past year to new acquisitions like Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox ownership may be eager to let Drew's pricey contract come off their books and replace him with younger, cheaper alternatives. So why wait?
Kalish has missed a large portion of the season due to injury, which has delayed his development and may keep him from making an impact this season. Reddick on the other hand is already up with the team and has been impressive in a limited sample size. It's only been 28 games, but his .367/.418/.671 line dwarfs Drew's production (and just about everyone else's in the league). Of course he can't be expected to continue at that pace, but it's a sign that he may be able to contribute more at this time than a struggling Drew can. The two don't appear to be a natural platoon, as both are left handed hitters. Drew is lost against left handed pitching at this point, but doesn't fair much better against right handers anyway. Reddick has actually been mashing left handed pitching so far, but the sample size is far too small to consider it a trend.
If the Sox do make the switch to make Reddick the starter, as they should, then they would still be wise to search for a right handed hitter to bolster their bench to help compliment him. Rumors have been swirling about a potential trade for All-Star Carlos Beltran, but that idea seems far fetched, as the Mets would be looking for a top prospect in return. It's more likely they will look for cheaper alternatives, such as Josh Willingham or Ryan Ludwick. That could push Drew to the end of the bench, where he essentially would become a wasted roster spot. It's conceivable that if he doesn't turn things around soon that he could be placed on waivers after the trade deadline and either given away or released.
It appears we are heading towards a disappointing ending to the career of J.D. Drew. With Crawford back in the line-up and David Ortiz about to return from suspension, Francona is going to need to make a decision soon about who to stick with in right field. From what we've seen this season, the right answer appears to be Reddick.
There are plenty of people that wanted to see this move made long ago, even prior to this season. They would be wrong. J.D. Drew has been a valuable part of this team over his past 4 seasons here. Whether you like him or not, he earned a spot in the line-up. Until now. It's time for a change.
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