Wednesday, June 29, 2011

2011 MLB All-Star Predictions

We are only a couple of weeks away from the announcement of the rosters for the 2011 MLB All-Star game.  With the starting position players being voted on by the fans we can expect at least a couple of undeserving players (*cough*Jeter*cough*) to take the field at the mid-summer classic.  In a game designed to be for the fans, popularity rules over fairness.  The players having the best seasons don't always make the team.  While track record should be a factor, given that to this point in the season we are still working with a relatively small sample size, often times a player's name carries much more value than what they are able to produce at this point in their careers.

In a perfect world, what would the rosters look like?  Well, here is one man's opinion of what they should look like once the final rosters are assembled.

Keep in mind that each team is allowed 34 players and each of the Major League teams must have at least one player representative.

American League

C - Victor Martinez:  I know, he's a defensive liability and doesn't even spend the majority of his appearances behind the plate, but with Joe Maur missing most of the season due to injury, V-Mart has been far and away the best hitting player eligible at the position. 
1B - Adrian Gonzalez:  the Sox new slugger has surpassed all our expectations by leading the league in hits, AVG, RBIs and extra-base hits.
2B - Robinson Cano: putting up big numbers already, despite his history of being a slow starter.  If he adds on his usual strong finish, how good will those numbers look by the end of the season?
3B - Adrian Beltre:  in a close race with A-Rod and Youkilis, but gets the nod due to superior defense.
SS - Asdrubal Cabrera: Jeter will get voted in by the fans, but anyone paying attention knows he's not even close.  A-Cab has been one of the league's best hitters on the league's biggest early season surprise team.
OF - Jose Bautista:  I guess last year's home run barrage wasn't a fluke after all.  Currently leads the league with 24 bombs.
OF - Curtis Granderson: finally figuring out how to hit lefties has led to a monster season.
OF - Jacoby Ellsbury:  outstanding bounce back season after missing most of last year with a rib injury.  He leads the league in steals, is 3rd in hits and has added a little pop in his bat (8 HRs)
DH - David Ortiz: Big Papi is back!  His abysmal slow starts are a thing of the past.  His bat speed is back and he's hitting lefties again. 
SP -  Justin Verlander:  Leads the Majors in quality starts and may be the most dominating pitcher in the game right now.
Reserves
C - Matt Weiters: the former hyped prospect is starting to show signs of the promise we all predicted. 
C - Joe Maur: He doesn't really belong, but who from the Twins does?  If not for his injury issues there's no reason to think he wouldn't still be the game's best catcher.
1B - Miguel Cabrera: put off-season drama behind him to begin another MVP caliber campaign
1B - Paul Konerko: tough call over Teixeria, as most of their numbers are similar and Tex is the better defender, but Konerko leads by a large margin in OBP and SLG.
2B - Dustin Pedroia: started to heat up with the bat this month.  Still a great defensive player and he's the gritty dirt dog that keeps the Sox engine running.
3B - Alex Rodriguez: whispers about another injury are concerning, but he's been getting it done so far.
3B - Kevin Youkilis: AVG has declined, but the OBP is still there.  Added bonus that he can play 1B as well, because we don't already have enough of those guys on the team.
SS - Alexi Rameriz: what, were you expecting Derek Jeter?
OF - Josh Hamilton: missed a lot of time with an injury, but couldn't leave last year's AL MVP off the roster.  He's hit as well as ever when healthy, Slugging over .500.
OF - Alex Gordon: just when we had given up on him, he finally breaks out with the kind of year we always expected from him.  Plus, we needed a Royal.
UTIL - Ben Zobrist: big bounce back season for Zorilla, plus he can play all over the diamond, making him a perfect fit for the last offensive bench spot.
P - Josh Beckett:  back to being the ace we remember.
P - Jon Lester: ERA is higher than expected, but K's and Wins are still there.

P - Jered Weaver:  leads the AL in ERA.
P - Dan Haren: gives the Angels a formidable 1-2 punch to lead their rotation.
P - James Shields: "Big Game" James is back, watch out!
P - David Price: Tampa's rotation has kept them in contention despite off season losses.
P - Felix Hernandez: Not as dominant as last year's Cy Young season, but still one of the game's best.
P - Michael Pineda: ROY front-runner has destroyed the opposition.  Future ace to pair with the King.
P - Gio Gonzalez: Needed someone from the A's and he's been their best pitcher. 
P - Alexi Ogando: fair to say the transition from the bullpen to the rotation has been a success.
P - Mariano Rivera: No explanation needed.
P - Chris Perez: fast start for Cleveland should help him get noticed more.
P - Jonathan Papelbon: ERA is higher than you would expect, but most of the damage was done in non-save situations.  Still converted 13 out of 14 save chances.

Snubs - these players are on the fence.  Many of them deserve to be on the roster, but due to the rules of requiring each team to be represented, we are forced to leave them off the team.  They may still make it on as injury replacements, or if a player decides to skip the festivities (wait, nevermind - Manny is out of the league now).
C - Russell Martin; 1B - Mark Teixeria; 2B - Ian Kinslar; 3B -  Evan Longoria; SS - Elvis Andrus,
OF - Adam Lind, Brennan Boesch, Matt Joyce; P - CC Sabathia, Jordan Walden, Phil Humber, CJ Wilson.

National League

C - Brian McCann:  best in the majors at this position this year, and it's not even close.
1B - Joey Votto: power numbers are down a bit from last year's MVP campaign, but OBP and SLG show he's having another elite season.
2B - Rickie Weeks: big drop off at this position in the NL and his numbers are clearly deserving.
3B - Chipper Jones: the elite NL third basemen have been crippled by injuries (Wright, Zimmerman), so seems fair to give Chipper a lifetime achievement vote.
SS - Jose Reyes: NL is loaded with good young talent at the position, even with Hanley Ramirez having a terrible year.  Reyes edges out Tulo for the start.
OF - Matt Kemp: first half MVP easily on pace for a 40/40 season
OF - Ryan Braun: one of the league's best hitters, forms half of a formidable duo in the middle of the Brewer's lineup
OF - Justin Upton: Another 5 tool player, finally putting it all together for his best season yet
DH - Prince Fielder: Leads the NL in RBIs.  Been the best 1B in the league, but Votto's glove helps edge him out for the starting spot, leaving Fielder to DH.
SP - Roy Halladay: take your pick of Phillies starters, they have 3 guys that deserve this spot, but Doc is still the best pitcher in the game.
Reserves
C - Miguel Montero: Season ending injury to Posey weakens the talent pool, but Montero is quietly having another good year in the desert.
1B - Ryan Howard: numbers continue to decline across the board, but he's still driving in runs
1B - Gaby Sanchez: you would know more about him if anybody ever went to watch the Marlins play
2B - Brandon Phillips: multi-tool player still one of the game's best defensively at the position
2B - Neil Walker: leads all 2B in RBIs
3B - Ryan Zimmerman: Not many options in the NL and injuries have deprived him of most of the season, but he's back now and getting it done in the field and at the plate.
SS - Troy Tulowitzki: if you were looking to start a franchise right now with any position player in the game, this guy would have to get some serious consideration.
SS - Starlin Castro: Rookie has been one of the few bright spots for the Cubs this year
OF - Lance Berkman: back in the NL again, the Puma has been rejuvenated
OF - Andrew McCutchen: one of the reason's Pirates have a chance to finish above .500 for the first time in 19 years.
OF - Michael Bourn: Had to pick an Astro.  Leader in Steals would be a perfect pinch runner to bring off the bench.
P - Cole Hamels: numbers nearly even with Halladay
P - Cliff Lee: Another deserving Philly ace, coming off 3 straight complete game shutouts.

P - Clayton Kershaw: Kid K continues to mow down opposing hitters
P - Tommy Hanson: having a great season that warrants a spot on the team, as long as he can return from the DL before then.
P - Jair Jurrjens: somehow getting it done despite poor K rate (5.17 K/9).
P - Shaun Marcum: Zach Grienke grabbed the headlines when he arrived in the off-season, but their other off-season pitcher acquisition has been the team's ace this year.
P - Jhoulys Chacin: numbers are even more impressive when you consider he plays half his games in Coors Field
P - Tim Lincecum: The Freak is 3rd in the NL in K/9 while leading the staff for the defending World Champs.
P - Ian Kennedy: Yankees must regret trading him away instead of Phil Hughes
P - Brian Wilson: league leader in Saves despite missing the first couple weeks with a rib injury
P - Jonny Venters: 1.26 ERA is the lowest in the league for pitchers with at least 50 innings.  2 seam fastball is un-hittable.
P - Joel Hanrahan: hard throwing closer has been as reliable as they come
P - Heath Bell: Padres most valuable player, at least until they trade him.

Snubs
1B - Albert Pujols (injured, likely would miss the game anyway); OF - Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs, Carlos Gonzalez, Chris Young, Hunter Pence; P - Anibel Sanchez, Kyle Lohse, Matt Cain, Craig Kimbrel

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