NFL Preview

It pains me to say it, but I'm concerned about the New England Patriots this year.  After dominating the AFC East for the past decade, the Patriots may not be the favorites to win their own division for the first time in a long time.  They failed only twice in the past 10 years to win the division, but even when they didn't win they came close, and entered the season as the clear favorite.  Despite winning the division last year, the humiliating first round playoff exit left a sour taste in our mouths.  Meanwhile the Jets have become a trendy pick to become a contender after their trip to the AFC Championship game. 

Ok, so granted the Jets would not have made the playoffs if their final two opponents, who had already locked up playoff seeds, hadn't handed them victories.  Then the Football Gods struck the Bengals with a case of bad karma to punish them for not playing hard in week 17, causing them to lose to the team they allowed into the playoffs by waiving the white flag the previous week.  Then San Diego's Pro Bowl kicker missed a couple of clutch kicks to give the Jets a win in the second round.  So their run wasn't really that impressive.  But they still have the league's best defense, a young franchise QB and they star in this season of HBO's Hard Knocks.  So, needless to say, they are getting some media attention.

Meanwhile, with the Jets on the rise, the Patriots are dealing with some issues that may put them on the decline.  Their defense is rebuilding, having lost several veterans over the past couple of years through retirements, trades and free agency.  They have a lot of young players that will need to step up in order for this unit to be effective.

Injuries have already taken a toll as well.  The offensive line is already missing it's best Guard, Logan Mankins, who is still holding out on his contract and could miss the entire season.  They also lost Nick Kaczur for the season.  With the lack of depth on the line, another injury could be devastating to the protection of Tom Brady.  Injuries have taken a bigger toll on defense.  The front line lost Ty Warren for the season, and our top Corner Back, Leigh Bodden, is out as well.  The loss of Warren is huge, but the loss of Bodden may be even bigger because it forces the Pats to start the youngest starting secondary in the league, including rookie Devin McCourtney. 

The offense should be able to continue to play at a high level.  Brady is another year removed from his knee injury, and Wes Welker seems to have recovered quickly and should continue to improve as the season progresses.  Randy Moss is in a contract year, so you know he will play hard.  We should also see contributions from some of the young wide receivers, as well as the two rookie Tight Ends.  As long as the offensive line doesn't fall apart, this should be an explosive offense.  Hopefully that will be enough to compensate for a defense that could be inconsistent at best.

To clarify, not all is doom and gloom in New England.  I still expect them to be a playoff team, even if they don't win the division.  However, given the key losses and lack of depth and experience at several positions, they do not look like a team that can be expected to be Super Bowl contenders.  Other top contenders  would need to suffer similar setbacks or catch some bad breaks for the Pats to surpass them in the AFC unless some of these young players can step up big.  It's certainly possible, but not something we can count on yet.  There is a lot of good young talent on this team, so the future looks bright, but until they are ready to break out and show their full potential, that outlook is still in the future.

Pre-Season Predictions

AFC
East: Jets (10-6)
North: Ravens (11-5)
South: Colts (13-3)
West: Chargers (9-7)
Wild Card: Patriots (10-6) and Bengals (9-7)

NFC
East: Cowboys (11-5)
North: Packers (12-4)
South: Saints (11-5)
West: 49ers (9-7)
Wild Card: Vikings (11-5) and Falcons (10-6)

Super Bowl
Cowboys over Colts

MVP
Aaron Rodgers (QB-Packers)

Rookie of the Year
Ryan Mathews (RB-Chargers)

Defensive Player of the Year
Darrell Revis (CB-Jets)