Week 3 in the NFL

Some things that I noticed in Week 3:

• Who could have guessed that the league's last remaining undefeated teams would be the: Steelers (with a backup QB), Bears and Chiefs?  None were even considered playoff contenders in the pre-season.
• Of those three, the Steelers seem to be the most legit because of their outstanding defense.  The Bears' defense looks much improved, in part because Brian Urlacher is now healthy.
• Hard to imagine the Chiefs making the playoffs, but Cassell did lead the Patriots to 11 wins in 2008 playing in a similar system. The other teams in that division aren't very good, but keep in mind that the Chargers typically start out slow and end strong.  The Chiefs start is reminiscent of the start the Broncos had last year, where they eventually fell apart and watched as San Diego, umm... charged passed them.
• We saw this coming - Adrian Peterson ran wild against Detroit.  Brett Favre should have been able to do more against that defense, but at least this week he didn't have to.  Despite another poor performance from the old man, the Vikings managed to finally win a game.
• Jahvid Best's injury better not keep him out long.  He's the only thing Lions fans have to look forward to.  In fact, he's really the only thing the entire city of Detroit has going for them.
• The Patriots still know how to put up points.  Unfortunately they give them up nearly as well.  A win is a win, but when you give up 30 points to a team with one of the worst offenses in the game, that's a major concern.
• Patriots RBs are dropping like flies due to trades (Maroney) and injuries (Faulk, Taylor), paving the way for a more prominent role for Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis.  The Law Firm may not be a game changing talent, but you have to love that nickname.
• The lack of RB depth has also given a role to Danny Woodhead, who looks like he's 16 years old.  The Tom Brady style hair cut isn't helping.
• The young Tight Ends continue to thrive for the Patriots, but you have to wonder if spreading it around so much will cause Randy Moss to lose interest.  Does he even catch passes anymore that aren't in the red zone?
• Big win for the Falcons playing in New Orleans.  Not to knock their performance in that game, but there's no way they should have won.  How does Hartley miss that kick in OT?  The Saints need to start auditioning new Kickers.
• The Saints won the Super Bowl last year, in part because they had a lot of playmakers on defense.  We've seen less of that so far this year, and it's becoming apparent that teams can run against them.  We may begin to see a similar strategy used against them that teams are using against the Colts; running the ball to keep Brees off the field.
• So much for Reggie Bush's injury opening up the chance for Pierre Thomas to get more carries.  He split carries 9-7 with some guy named Chris Ivory.  Neither did particular well, but Ivory's 1.9/carry average did nothing to warrant giving him the ball more.
• In case you didn't know, Chris Johnson is still good.  We can brush off last week's poor performance based on the Steelers defense just being that good.  Against a mediocre defense like the Giants, he can still dominate.  However, 32 carries this early in the season seems a bit excessive, especially when the game wasn't all that close.  It was the 2nd highest total of carries in a game for his career.
• Eli had a big yardage day because the team was playing from behind all day, but he really wasn't very good.  He had two interceptions, one of which was just ugly.
• Charlie Batch is getting it done for the Steelers.  If they win again next week, can they ask Commissioner Goodell to increase the suspension for Ben Rothlisburger?
• Clearly it was too early for Carolina to throw Jimmy Clausen into game action.  Clearly when you have a rookie QB that isn't getting it done then you may want to give more carries to your RB duo of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.  Clearly nobody in Carolina is paying attention to this.
• Payton Hillis had a big day (180 total yds, 1 TD) that absolutely killed my fantasy team. 
• Joe Flacco looked much better this week, but keep in mind it was against the Browns.  Also, Anquan Boldin was the only receiver to do much of anything, he just happened to do A LOT of it.  They can't afford to be a one dimensional offense, which means they better hope the injury to Ray Rice isn't serious.
• The Cowboys won a must win game against a Texans team that everyone thought was a contender after 2 weeks.  Dallas finally looked good, while Houston couldn't score.  Penalties and sacks killed several of their drives.  Kind of like how things had gone for Dallas the previous two weeks.
• Andre Johnson aggravated his ankle injury and left for part of the game.  He returned (again), but they better hope this doesn't linger or get any worse.
• Roy Williams is back from the grave!  Houston's game plan was clearly to shut down Miles Austin, which they did (20 yards), but how did they let Williams (117, 2TDs) beat them?
• If you give up 30 points to St. Louis and only score 16.... not only does that mean you lost the game (obviously), but it means you lost the privilege to be considered a contender in your division.  Early this season it seemed like McNabb lucked out when he got traded to Washington, but now that Vick has taken over, the Eagles are soaring and the Redskins are... getting trampled by the Rams.
• Speaking of Mike Vick, he had another vintage performance, scoring 3 TDs through the air and another on the ground.  He's found a good rapport with DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin.  We'll have to wait and see how he does against better defenses before he can be fully trusted to lead this team.  The numbers are nice, but when they come against the Lions and Jaguars it's not quite as impressive.
• Looking forward to the many sub-plots involved in next week's Eagles/Redskins match-up. 
• Denver hung in with the Colts for most of the game, but couldn't get it done in the 4th quarter.  That game seemed closer than the final score made it seem.
• Kyle Orton is quietly putting together a nice season so far.  He's second in the NFL in passing yards (1078) through Week 3.  Keep in mind, this is after Denver just traded away one of the game's elite WRs (Brandon Marshall - sent to Miami in the offseason).  He's getting it done with some unproven youngsters (Demaryius Thomas) and other team's cast offs (Brandon Lloyd, Jabar Gaffney).
• Austin Collie is official legit.  While Pierre Garcon was last year's break-out WR for the Colts, he's now been supplanted by Collie.  Meanwhile, Garcon has been mostly invisible so far and was inactive this week, while Anthony Gonzalez has barely seen the field.
• Even when given a chance against a poor run defense, Laurence Maroney still can't get it done.
• Arizona is somehow 2-1, but only because they've played terrible teams in the games they won (Rams, Raiders).  It took 3 missed FGs for them to squeak by in this one. 
• Derek Anderson continues to be terrible.
• Beanie Wells finally saw the field, and actually played well.  Too bad for Tim Hightower, who has been playing well in his absence, but now will likely take a backseat.
• Don't worry San Diego, you always get off to a slow start each season.  So don't be too worried about losing a game in September to... Seattle.  Nevermind, maybe you should panic. 
• I can't figure out what's wrong with the Chargers.  Rivers has been on fire, leading the league in passing yards (1087).  Nobody can guard Antonio Gates and Malcom Floyd is starting to look like a legit #1 receiver, so you can't blame it on "Mr. Holdout" Vincent Jackson.  I was ready to write off Week 1 as a fluke (on the road, bad weather), especially after they dominated Jacksonville in Week 2 (then again, who hasn't?).  But now after this loss has dropped them to 1-2, it's time to start questioning them.  They better hope KC's fast start doesn't last or they may end up in too big of a hole to climb out of.
• Who knew the Jets and Dolphins were even capable of putting up this many points?  Both team's strengths were supposed to be their defense, but it didn't show in this one.  The Jets miss having Revis around to shut down the opponents top receiver.  Antonio Cromartie was abused by Brandon Marhsall (166 yds, 1 TD).
• Neither team had much success running the ball, in part because both teams threw the ball more than what is typically expected from them.  Miami seemed hell bent on exposing the Jets' injury depleted secondary.
• Dustin Keller continues to be a top target for Mark Sanchez, especially near the redzone.  He had two TDs in the game, and his 6 catches on 10 targets were by far the most of any Jets receiver.
• The Jets RB timeshare continues to tilt more in favor of LT over Shonne Greene.  He got 60% of the carries and did more with those opportunities.
• Frustrating loss for the Packers.  A franchise record 18 penalties was bad enough, but the Bears' drive for the game winning FG was set up by a costly fumble by James Jones.  Too much sloppy play against a better than expected Chicago team.
• Aaron Rodgers did all he could, even putting his body on the line to run the ball into the endzone himself.  He takes a lot of hard hits, but he's a warrior that somehow manages to get back up and do it again week after week.
• JerMichael Finley is a beast.  You can't stop him!
• Jay Cutler has 3 times as many TDs as Ints!  You would have guessed those numbers would have been reversed.
• Devin Aromashodu was popular pick to break-out this year in Mike Martz's offense, but so far he appears to be the only Bears receiver that is not.  After not being targeted at all last week, he was inactive for this game.  He's apparently in the doghouse.  He had a good game in week 1 with 5 catches, but also had 3 drops and seemed hesitant on some of his routes.
• Maybe a TE can be effective in a Martz offense after all.  5 catches, including a TD, for Olsen.
• Whoever said that Brandon Jackson could step right in and essentially provide similar production to the injured Ryan Grant... that person lied.
• The NFL's worst team thus far has been the extremely disappointing 49ers.  They are 0-3 with a point differential of -49.  They just fired their OC, but their defense seems to be a bigger problem.
• This seems to be another year where my Fantasy Football team will get screwed in a Head-Head league based on match-ups.  So far in that league I'm 1-2, but have the 2nd highest total points of anyone in the league.  Last year I had the most total points, but missed the playoffs.  This is one of several reasons why the league that I run uses total points for football.  Too many flukes can occur when there is only 1 game per week, and things will only get worse after this when Bye weeks begin.

Week 2 in the NFL

Here are some things that I noticed in Week 2.

• The Cardinals may be missing Kurt Warner given how poorly his replacements have played, but their defense may be an even bigger issue.  Matty Ice looked good, but that may have more to do with the team he was playing against.  The Falcons also ran all over the Cardinals, primarily with a 3rd string running back (Jason Snelling - 186 Total Yards, 3 TDs).  What would Michael Turner have done had he not gotten injured?  He had 75 yards on only 9 carries before leaving with a groin injury.
• Speaking of which, Turner should be fine heading into Week 3.  Supposedly he was cleared to return to the game, but they decided to hold him back as a precaution given that they had a big lead.  Did I mention how bad Arizona is?
• Looks like every game the Ravens play in will be low scoring - their defense is playing great, but their offense is also bad.  Joe Flacco was supposed to break out this year, but a 4 INT game isn't helping his case.  Especially when it came against a team that Tom Brady lit up last week.  Flacco has a ways to go to reach that elite level.
• You have to wonder what's going on in the minds of the KC coaching staff when Thomas Jones is getting twice as many carries as Jamaal Charles.  I realize Jones rushed for 1400 yards last year, but that was behind a far superior offensive line in NY and he's now also 32 years old.  I like what he brings to the team as a tough downhill runner, but they need to find ways to get the ball in the hands of their most explosive player more often.
• Cleveland has had a similar issue with their RB distribution being questioned.  The difference is, both their RBs are bad.
• The Bears offense is looking good and Jay Cutler went a game without throwing an INT!  Early in the game the Dallas pass rush was knocking Cutler around (he will still have nightmares about DeMarcus Ware).  Nice adjustment by Martz to switch up the gameplan to have Cutler get rid of the ball quickly instead of the 7 step drop back that is typically seen in this offense.  It proved effective on a quick 39 yard strike to Olsen for a TD and their offense started rolling from there.
• What's up with Dallas?  They were a popular Super Bowl pick, but have now started 0-2 (thanks for making my prediction look bad, jerks!).  Romo has looked pretty good and Miles Austin is a beast.  But that three headed running game has looked more like a trio of playful kittens, averaging less than 2 yards per carry between them.  At least one of them really needs to step it up.
• Jason Witten tried to argue his way back on the field after suffering a concussion, but his plea was ignored.  Props to the Dallas coaches for making the smart choice.  Hope Andy Reid was watching.
• I thought the Eagles were supposed to be a good defensive team.  Giving up 32 points to the Lions?  Almost losing the game??  Did I mention the Lions had a backup QB and a rookie RB???
• Jhavid Best gives Detroit fans something to cheer about for the first time since Barry Sanders was around.  He's fun to watch and clearly knows how to score.  He's now tied for the league lead in rushing TDs (4) and added another through the air.
• Michael Vick had a good game, but it was against the Lions so let's not give him too much credit.  Kolb should regain the job this week and will have to struggle badly for a few weeks for there to be any chance of a real QB controversy.
• The Packers' offense is looking great.  Buffalo's offense... do they even have one?  Amazingly enough, Trent Edwards 37.0 QB rating wasn't even the worst performance of the week (see Flacco, Joe).
• Marshawn Lynch got the bulk of the carries, but it was likely only because the team wanted to showcase him to a potential trade suitor.  If so, Lynch did nothing to impress or give Green Bay any reason to want to trade for him.
• On the other hand, Ryan Grant's replacements did nothing to convince Green Bay that they aren't desperate to trade for another RB.  Didn't Buffalo have one of the worst rush defenses in the league this year?  They may be slightly improved this year, but 29 yards on 11 carries isn't going to help Brandon Jackson keep the job, even if he currently doesn't have much competition.
• What a difference Troy Polamalu makes to the Steelers defense.  Just having him on the field makes the rest of the defense better.  Seven turnovers!  You can't run or pass against this team.
• Ben who?  The Steelers keep chugging along at 2-0 without their star QB.  Dixon got injured, but they managed to still prevail with Charlie Batch.  That goes to show they can win games with anyone at QB, so they aren't in any rush to get their controversial starter back.  Then again, if he's out on the field then it will be easier for the team to keep an eye on him.  At least then they would know he's not hanging out in a bar... or a women's restroom.
• Vince Young got benched, but Kerry Collins didn't exactly light it up after he replaced him.  This seemed like the coach just sending a message to VY, not a permanent change.  Collins led the team to an 0-6 start last year and the team made a turnaround to finish a respectable 8-8 only after switching to VY after their bye week.  If they have any chance of making the playoffs they need VY to step it up.  Turning things over to Collins will not only ensure another mediocre season, but may signal the team has given up on VY for good.
• Apparently Chris Johnson is mortal after all!  After being contained by an impenetrable Steelers defense for only 34 yards, he is now only on pace for 1408 for the season.  Come on, step it up!
• Brett Farve is really starting to show his age.  What is he, 50?  No, not quite?  Well he looked like he was.  It's not all his fault, he has nobody to throw to.  Shiancoe is a nice option at TE, but he can't be your main target in a successful passing game.  They really miss Rice and need him to get healthy soon.  If they can pull off the rumored trade for Vincent Jackson then that would help a lot.
• After going 3-13 last year, the Bucs are already off to a 2-0 start! Not sure how they are doing it because they don't have anyone at the skill positions on offense that scare anyone.  Their defense has looked good, but they've played bad teams, so don't expect this trend to continue.
• The Jimmy Clausen era has officially begun in Carolina.  He's a work in progress, so don't expect him to light up the league anytime soon... if ever.  Surprised he is being thrown in so soon, but Matt Moore was just awful so far this season, so they must figure there's nothing to lose by getting their QB of the future in early to get his feet wet.  They just have to hope a losing team doesn't ruin him from a mental standpoint. 
• Seattle didn't look so good this week. Maybe they aren't the team to beat in that division after all, despite what we saw in Week 1.  Then again, the 49ers are 0-2 now, so maybe there is no team to beat.  Can the NFL pass a new rule that nobody from the NFC West gets to make the playoffs?
• No Laurence Moroney sightings on the field for Denver after they just traded for him.  Did they hold him out due to a lack of practice time with his new team, or did he manage to get himself in the coach's doghouse already?
• Thanks for nothing St. Louis!  You had a chance to put Oakland in an 0-2 hole and you nearly pulled it off until you allowed the Raiders to come back in the second half.  Their draft pick, owned by the Patriots, just lost a little value because that Rams are now worse than they are.
• Speaking of the Patriots... ouch!  They started out so well in the game, but things just fell apart in the second half.  They killed themselves with dumb penalties and turnovers.  Kind of like how things went for the Jets in Week 1.  We should have expected the Jets to step up big at home with so much on the line for them, but this was frustrating to watch.
• Tom Brady tried to force the ball to Moss too much in the second half and it hurt them.  They did better in the first half when they spread the ball around more.  Welker was practically forgotten in the second half and they could have used him more.  They seemed to think that after Revis left with an injury that Moss could carry the team, but in his career, Cromartie has covered Moss nearly as well as Revis has.  When Revis left the game they should have capitalized on the weakened depth of the Jets secondary by spreading the ball around to the other receivers.
• Brady overthrew Moss on his first interception, but Moss should have kept running to try to break up the play to prevent the pick.  The second INT was even more clearly Moss' fault since it bounced off of him.  Great play by Cromartie and Poole to combine on that tipped pass to get the turnover.
• The one handed TD catch by Moss was one of the best catches you'll see all year - against Revis no less.  Moss also nearly had another TD catch, but couldn't control the ball as he was stepping out of bounds.  So the day wasn't all bad for him.
• The Patriots young defense made Mark Sanchez look like a Pro-Bowl QB.  That won't last long, but it shows that this defense has a ways to go.  The pass rush was decent, with 3 sacks, but the young corners got picked on.  If they can't stop a TE like Dustin Keller then how bad will they look against someone like Dallas Clark when the Colts come to town later this season?
• Big game for Rivers and the Chargers offense.  Gates is still the main target in the passing game, but Malcolm Floyd showed why he was widely considered to be a breakout candidate this year.
• Rookie Ryan Mathews left early with an ankle sprain, but it's not expected to be serious.  He could have returned if the game wasn't already out of hand by then.  In other words, don't get too excited about the performance by Tolbert.  Interesting that Sproles didn't get more touches after Mathews left though.
• The Texans and Redskins game was a good old fashioned shoot out.  Matt Schaub threw for nearly 500 yards!  That offense is unstoppable, winning two weeks in a row - once with their running game, then with the passing game. 
• Donovan McNabb was nearly as impressive, so maybe he's not washed up after all.  Or maybe the Texan's pass defense is just bad.
• Last week's breakout star - Arian Foster - wasn't quite as dominant this week, but managed 138 total yards against a decent defense.  So at least it appears he's not just a one hit wonder.
• Did the Giants not watch tape of the Colts Week 1 loss?  Their gameplan should have been to come in and pound the ball against a terrible rush defense, but instead the Colts were the team that dominated the running game.  Yes, the same Colts team that was 31st in the league last year in rushing.  Granted they were down early and couldn't stop the Colts offense, but the passing game wasn't working well either, so if you know you can run better than pass then why not pound away on the ground?  They would have better luck moving the ball and would keep Payton Manning off the field.  When Bradshaw is averaging over 5 yards per carry, give him more than 17 touches!
• It didn't help the Giants that Brandon Jacobs was ineffective and got himself benched for throwing his helmet into the crowd.  That "accident" got some jeers from Colts fans that were nearly knocked out by the flying helmet, but his coaches were the ones that really gave him an earful.  If you're a 265 pound RB you need to plow straight ahead and bowl guys over. Stop pretending you're on Dancing with the Stars by showing off your fancy footwork in the backfield. North and South are the only directions you need to know.
• Payton will cheer up little brother Eli after a tough loss by offering to let him co-star in another commercial.
• The 49ers fall to 0-2, but at least they were more competitive this week.  Alex Smith looked much more competent this week.  He'll never be a star, but with the talent around him he should be better than what we saw in Week 1.  Despite the loss, this game was a good start to get back on track.
• Drew Brees missed on a lot of passes he normally makes.  The announcers during the game blamed the wind for altering some of his throws, but maybe part of it is that he's not quite tuned in with his receivers yet.  That's two good, but not great, games in a row for him.  He'll get better.
• You have to love how the standings look early in the season.  Tampa Bay and Kansas City are in first place, the Colts and Dallas are in last place.  That won't last of course, but it's sure to raise false hope for many teams while causing others to unnecessarily panic.  It's still early and there is lots more football to be played.

What If?

Have you ever wondered how things could have been?  Looking back on your life there must be several life altering moments where having made a different decision or getting a lucky break could have drastically changed the direction of your life.  If you had the chance to go back in time to change one thing from your past, would you do it? Even if you knew the decision could completely change the path your life had taken, for better or for worse?

This leads us to playing the "What If" game.  Essentially, it's taking a hypothetical look back on what would have happened had a particular event played out differently.  You can fantasize about this while applying it to your own life (please, I don't need the details), but we can also see many examples of this in sports.  Boston teams have had their fair share of these moments where fans can only wonder what could have been.  We'll never know if it would have worked out for the best or not, but it's still fun to debate about them, hypothetically re-writing sports history.

What if the Celtics landed a top 2 pick in the 2007 NBA draft?
The Celtics ended the 2006-2007 season with the second worst record in the league, behind only Memphis.  They felt confident that tanking at the end of the season would be rewarded with one of the top two picks in a top heavy draft that would save their once storied franchise.  As we now know, the Karma Gods struck back at us and the Celtics fell to the #5 pick in the lottery, meaning they would miss out on having a chance to draft either Greg Oden or Kevin Durant.

If the Celtics had gotten a top 2 pick, as the odds predicted they should, it could have played out in one of two scenarios.

A) The Celtics get the #1 pick and draft Greg Oden.  Despite what we know now, every GM in the league would have taken Oden with the top pick.  Of course now he is in danger of becoming a bust due to a string of injuries that cost him his entire rookie season and parts of the next two seasons.  Oden had some injury issues in college as well, so this should have been a red flag, but any team would have been prepared to take him with that pick, including the Celtics.  A rule of thumb in the NBA is that you always take a dominant big man over a dominant Guard or Forward, and Greg Oden looked like a can't miss big man coming into the league.  Or at least that's what Portland still tries to convince themselves of ever since they drafted Sam Bowie over Michael Jordan.  Poor Portland...

Had this scenario occurred it would have been a disaster for the Celtics.  There's no way to know if Oden would have suffered the same season ending injury in Boston before ever playing a game, but it's fair to assume he would have gotten injured at some point because, well, that's what he does.  That would have left Boston with essentially the same team they had the previous miserable season, only with a healthy Paul Pierce and an improving Rajon Rondo they would no longer finish in the basement, but more likely with a late lottery pick.  Still useful, but still no franchise savior, so we're left waiting to see if Oden ever gets healthy enough to contribute.  It hasn't happened yet.  However, given that he looked like a 40 year old man coming out of college, I'm fairly convinced that he is the real life version of Benjamin Button, who ages in reverse.  So it's possible that 10 years from now he will be a young, spry, dominant force in the league once he gets younger, instead of the old man with the bad wheel that we've seen so far.

B) The Celtics get the #2 pick and draft Kevin Durant.  Now things are looking a little more intriguing, as Durant has blossomed into one of the league's elite players.  He has carried a young Thunder team on his shoulders and made them into a team that should contend for many years.  He's a good bet to rack up several scoring titles and MVP awards over the next decade. 

If the Celtics drafted Durant they would have had a core of Rondo, Pierce, Durant, Al Jefferson and Kendrick Perkins.  Fill in some quality bench guys, some of which they already had (Delonte West, Ryan Gomes, Tony Allen) and others that GM Danny Ainge has proved capable of finding, and that's a very solid team.  It may even be better than the Thunder team that Durant is on now, given that it includes a veteran leader in Pierce that can handle some of the scoring load instead of requiring Durant to handle too much too soon.  After a couple years the torch would be passed to make Durant the main option with Pierce playing a solid second option.  The other young starters would all develop together around Durant, making them contenders for a long time.  Durant had a solid rookie year, which would help the Celtics improve, but not much.  He struggled on defense and took too many bad shots.  He's since improved in just about every aspect of the game, but that rookie season would have been another lottery pick for the Celtics in 2008, meaning they likely would have added someone in the mid-late lottery (Anthony Randolph, Eric Gordon, or Brook Lopez?).

Of course if this does happen then the Celtics no longer have the #5 pick to trade to Seattle for Ray Allen, which means Kevin Garnett doesn't agree to come to Boston for the Al Jefferson pu pu platter.  The Big Three is never formed and the Celtics don't win the title in 2008.  When this group was assembled they knew they had a limited window due to the decline of their aging veterans, but so far in that window they have 2 NBA Finals appearances, 1 Championship and another deep playoff run that could very well have resulted in another title if KG wasn't injured.  This Celtics team wins primarily by playing suffocating defense, which stems from the intensity that KG brings every night.  Replacing KG and Allen with Durant and Jefferson would make for pretty bad defensive team.  Maybe Pierce doesn't end up buying into the defensive approach without KG around.  Maybe Rondo and Perkins don't develop as quickly without that veteran leadership around and the playoff experience that tested them early in their careers.

Having Durant with that young core of players would give us an exciting contender for years to come, but would you give up the run this team has had the past three years, including their championship, for the chance that you might win multiple titles with a team led by Durant? I say no.

What if the Red Sox traded Nomar and Manny for A-Rod and Ordonez?
This is an actual trade that nearly happened in the offseason before the 2004 season.  The Red Sox would have traded Nomar Garciaparra to Chicago for Magglio Ordonez, then shipped Manny Ramirez to Texas for Alex Rodriguez.  Technically that's two separate trades, but the Nomar trade was contingent on the Sox being able to trade for A-Rod as his replacement at SS.

On paper this looked like a great deal for the Red Sox.  Nomar was beginning his decline into clubhouse malcontent and had a history of injuries which prompted the Sox to want to move him while his value was still high.  They had a chance to acquire A-Rod, who was considered the best player in the game at the time while ridding themselves of having to deal with "Manny being Manny."  As good as Nomar had been in a Red Sox uniform over the years, A-Rod was a clear upgrade at the position.  Meanwhile, Ordonez was coming off a season where he hit .317, had 29 HRs and drove in just shy of 100 RBIs.  His previous season was even better (.320, 38, 135), so he was a proven stud capable of replacing at least most of the production that Manny provided, without the off-field baggage and defensive liabilities that they dealt with having Manny around.  Red Sox Nation held their collective breaths all off-season waiting to see if these deals would get done.

As it turned out, the Sox and Rangers could not come to an agreement regarding the large amount of money being transferred with the game's two biggest contracts.  The Sox scoffed at the demand that they pay a portion of Ramirez's salary in addition to taking on A-Rod's contract.  That deal fell through and A-Rod was instead traded to the rival Yankees for Alfonso Soriano, stabbing the Red Sox in the heart.  It was a devastating defeat, to not only lose out on that deal, but to have the Yankees pounce at the opportune time to take advantage.  The Nomar/Magglio trade was no longer needed, so the Sox were stuck with two players that were not happy about being dangled as trade bait.

Believe it or not, it may have been the best thing that ever happened to this team.  Nomar became a problem in the clubhouse and dragged the team down with his poor attitude, but they eventually did trade him at the trading deadline for spark plug Orlando Cabrera, who helped energize the team.  The Sox make an impressive run to secure a playoff spot with the Wild Card and shock the world by coming back from an 0-3 game deficit to beat the Yankees in the ALCS.  They then go on to sweep the Cardinals to win the team's first World Series Championship since 1918. 

Manny was the MVP of that World Series, so maybe keeping him around was a good idea.  He hit .308 with 43 HRs and 130 RBIs in 2004, combining with David Ortiz to form the leagues most feared duo in the middle of the lineup.  The man that would have replaced him, Magglio Ordonez, only played in 52 games that season due to injury, with a .292, 9 HR, 37 RBI stat line.  He followed that up with another disappointing injury plagued season with similar results.  He finally had a bounce back year with Detroit in 2006 and has put up pretty good numbers since, but he wasn't the same MVP quality player that he was pre-2004.

Meanwhile, A-Rod had an impressive year for himself in New York, but it was the Red Sox that ended up beating his team in the playoffs.  A-Rod took much of the criticism for that loss, as he failed to produce in the playoffs.  There were whispers that he was the type of player that put up impressive numbers during the regular season, but couldn't come through in the clutch when it mattered in the playoffs.  He was a "me first" type of player that cared more about his own stats than he did about winning, which was not the Yankee way.  Former teammates named him "The Cooler" because no matter how good he was, having him on the team made the team worse.  Evidence of this can be pointed to how the Seattle Mariners immediately got better after he left to sign a record size contract with Texas, while the Rangers ended up finishing in last place after acquiring A-Rod.  This doesn't sound like the type of guy we'd have wanted in Boston.  His prima-donna personality would not have meshed well with the "bunch of idiots" the Sox had at the time, such as Johnny Damon and Kevin Millar.  Can you imagine watching A-Rod stare back with glazed eyes while Millar told him to Cowboy Up?  He was not a good fit for that team, which won in part because of the relaxed, happy-go-lucky attitude they all had.  They were having fun and loved being a team together.  A-Rod would have made himself an outsider to all that and poisoned the team in the process.  His lack of post-season production, especially compared to Manny's, would cost us as well.  Suffice it to say, we would not have won a championship in 2004 had that trade went through.

After that championship season, much of that 2004 team disbanded.  If they don't win that title would players like Damon and Pedro feel as entitled to a huge pay raise?  Would they still have left town for big time contracts, tarnishing their reputation in the eyes of Boston fans?  Do they re-sign Ordonez after watching him waste away on the Disabled List for most of the season?  Does Curt Schilling retire early to focus more of his time on blogging about how much he hated being teammates with A-Rod?

But it doesn't end there.  The A-Rod effect would impact more than just one title.  Assuming the Sox kept him around, A-Rod would likely have impacted the 2007 World Series as well.  He was considered to be too big and lacked the necessary range to remain at SS for long, so his switch to 3B would have occurred eventually even if he hadn't gone to the Yankees.  He would have been pushed aside for promising young prospect Hanley Ramirez.  With A-Rod manning 3B they would have had no reason to trade Han-Ram for a deal that included Mike Lowell (2007 World Series MVP), and Josh Beckett, who as the ace of the pitching staff, helped lead the team to another title. 

If the Red Sox had successfully completed those trades in the winter of 2004 then the Red Sox may not have won either of those World Series titles.  We'd still be suffering from the Curse of the Bambino, still be taunted by the "1918" chants and worst of all, we'd be forced to cheer for A-Rod.

What if Drew Bledsoe didn't get injured in 2001
Drew Beledsoe had been the Patriots franchise Quarterback since being selected first overall in 1993.  He made 4 Pro-Bowls and led the team to a Super Bowl in '96, which they lost to the Green Bay Packers.  In 2001 the Patriots were not considered an elite team, but they were expected to contend for the division crown and a playoff spot.  Those expectations seemingly went down the drain in Week 2 of the season when Bledsoe was badly injured by a hard hit from Jets linebacker Mo Lewis.

Fans all around New England were crushed by news of the injury, which was expected to keep Bledsoe out for several weeks.  They now were forced to turn their playoff hopes over to an unknown backup that was drafted in the 6th round.  That man... was Tom Brady.

So we know how that turned out.  Brady came in to finish that game against the Jets, which resulted in a loss and put the team in an 0-2 hole.  But Brady managed to rally the team around him, leading them to victories in 11 of their remaining 14 games, including wins in their final 6 regular season games, to finish with an 11-5 regular season record to win the AFC East Division title.  Brady made his first Pro-Bowl that season while continuing that roll into the postseason, where their improbable run resulted in a huge upset victory over the heavily favored Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI. 

Since then Brady has gone on to win two more Super Bowl rings, 2 Super Bowl MVPs, a regular season MVP and set league records, including his 50 TD season in 2007.  He led arguably the best offense the league has ever seen during an undefeated 16-0 regular season that nearly resulted in another Super Bowl victory (another What If story for another time).  He's not only amongst the best QB's in the league now, but he's mentioned in the debate for best QBs of all time.  He's a surefire Hall of Famer and the best thing that ever happened to this once miserable franchise.

Not to knock Drew, who was great at times during his years in New England, but would he ever have accomplished any of that?  Can you picture him winning an MVP award or any of those Super Bowls?  After he lost his job in New England he bounced around the league looking for work as a starting QB in places like Buffalo and Dallas, but never was the same as in his peak years.

If Bledsoe never gets injured then Brady never gets his chance to shine.  The Patriots don't dominate the last decade with a record setting dynasty team, Tom Brady doesn't become one of the most recognizable sports celebrities in the world, Giselle might still be single and we'd have other things to dislike about our Quarterback besides a goofy haircut.  What kind of world would that be?

Unless someone ever invents a working time machine (which, if they did, wouldn't someone from the future already have gone back in time to tell us about it?) then we'll never know for sure how things would have turned out if these scenarios had played out differently.  We'll forever be forced to wonder... What if?

Week 1 in the NFL

Football season is finally back!  Here are some things that I noticed from Week 1.

• Last year we saw a rejuvenated Brett Favre have one of the best seasons of his Hall of Fame career in leading the Vikings to the playoffs.  This year Favre looks like an old man with a bad ankle. 
• The refs may have gotten the call correct based on the letter of the law, but that Calvin Johnson play in the endzone should have been a catch.  Common sense from watching the play says it's a catch.  It's the rule that needs to change to allow refs to make common sense decisions.
• The "no catch" call cost the Lions their game against the Bears, but it didn't cost them as much as the loss of injured QB Matthew Stafford.  The promising young QB needs to play to develop, and he's dangerously close to now carrying the injury prone tag, which could lead to him being known as a bust.
• The Miami/Buffalo game was just ugly.  How are people considering the Dolphins as contenders?
• Chris Johnson had a monster game (142 yards) against a terrible Raiders team, but he's still not on pace for the 2500 yards he promised for this season (needs to over 156/game).
• The Titans/Raiders game made me really glad the Patriots have Oakland's first round pick this year, no matter how much we could use Richard Seymour right now.
• The Patriots offense is still elite.  Wes Welker looks like he hasn't lost a step after a serious knee injury only 9 months ago. 
• The young Patriots defense may be inconsistent, but could be better than people think.
• Where were Chad OchoCinco and TO on the last play of the first half when the Bengals desperately needed a Hail Mary play to help get them back in the game?  In the locker room, probably Tweeting.
• I've always thought Eli Manning was overrated because of his last name, but he's got 3 good young receivers that will make him look good this year.  Last year Steve Smith had a breakout season.  This year it'll be Hakeem Nicks.
• Atlanta can't be considered a playoff pick if they can't beat a Steelers team using their 3rd string QB. 
• The Falcons and Steelers both looked pretty mediocre on offense all game, without any really big plays, but the game ends in OT on a 50 yard TD run?  Really??
• The Steelers will be thrilled to open the season 2-2.  Anything better than that and Steelers fans will have an excuse to want to get rid of Ben Rape-lisburger, but anything worse than that may doom their playoff chances before Big Ben can get back on the field.
• Breaking news: Jake Delhomme still throws Interceptions
• The Broncos need to use Tim Tebow's gimmick plays to give people a reason to care about their team.  Not much else going on there.
• At least we don't have to sit through week after week of people asking if the Colts can go undefeated.  Got that one out of the way early!
• The Colts defense is awful.  If Bob Sanders is out for the season they will become even worse.  Foster is good, but not that good.  I could have run for at least 100 yards in that game given the holes he had to run through.
• This is the blueprint to beat the Colts.  They can't stop the run and it keeps Manning off the field.  Is it possible they could miss the playoffs?  Oh, I hope so!
• Derek Anderson isn't good, but he did better than Matt Leinhert would have done.  Sorry Arizona fans, Kurt Warner is not walking back through that door.
• The Packers won despite their offense not really clicking.  How good can they be once they are running on all cylinders?
• Kevin Kolb was awful in the first half before leaving with an injury.  Yet he still needs to be the QB for this team once he's healthy enough to play.  No QB controversy here.  Vick showed flashes of his old self by running all over the place, but he won't be able to do that when teams have time to gameplan for him.  He was never great at throwing the ball with any accuracy and after not doing it full time in about 4 years he certainly isn't any better at it now. 
• Andy Reid should be fined for allowing Kolb and Bradley to temporarily go back in the game after suffering concussions.  He risked further brain damage, their careers and potentially even their lives.  I thought the league had come to know better about these things by now.
• Maybe the 49ers aren't a lock to win the NFC West.  The division is slightly more wide open now, but only because this game showed that ALL teams in that division are terrible.
• Penalties and bone-head plays cost the Cowboys a win.  I have a feeling we'll be saying that a lot this year.
• The Redskins/Cowboys game had an exciting finish that was ruined by a bad holding penalty.  It's one thing if the Redskins defense stepped up to stop the drive, but for the game to end on a penalty is just lame.
• I had Tony Romo in one of my fantasy leagues.  If that game winning TD wasn't called back then I would have gotten 4 points for that TD.  I lost my weekly matchup by 3 points.
• The Ravens and Jets played an ugly defensive battle.  The Jets offense looked terrible and couldn't even throw the ball against a Baltimore secondary that is banged up and supposedly vulnerable.  Still think the Sanchize can lead NY to a Superbowl?  Me neither.
• The Jets killed themselves on penalties.  They were penalized for running into the kicker, keeping the Ravens drive alive.  Instead of the 3 point FG they ended up scoring a TD on the drive, in part due to ANOTHER Jets penalty - pass interference, giving the Ravens the ball at the 1 yard line.  That gave away an extra 4 points as a gift.  The Jets lost by 1 point.
• I still don't think the Chiefs are better than we thought, I just think the Chargers are even worse than we thought. 
• Jamaal Charles is the most explosive RB in the league not named Chris Johnson.
• Heavy rain contributed to sloppy field conditions, but can it be blamed on the sloppy play of the Chargers?
• Week 1 has me second guessing some of my pre-season predictions.
• Week 2 will probably make me want to change my mind again.  Stay tuned...

Patriots Week 1 Review

The New England Patriots headed into this season with a lot of question marks, as well as some whispers around the league that the team was due to decline because of their rebuilding defense.  Their 38-24 dismantling of the Cincinnati Bengals doesn't alleviate all of those concerns, but it did make a strong statement that this team may not be in as much trouble as we originally thought, and are very much still contenders in the AFC. 

For starters, the offense was clicking early in the game, moving the ball down field with ease on their way to scoring on their first drive of the game.  The Bengal's typically stingy pass defense was overmatched by Tom Brady, who spread the ball around to 7 different receivers.  Any concerns about if Wes Welker would be ready to play 9 months after a serious knee injury can now be set aside after his 8 catch, 64 yard, 2 TD performance.  He may not be 100% and lacking a bit with his explosiveness after the catch, but he's still a great route runner that knows how to get open.  The phenomenal blocking from the Tight Ends set up Welker's first TD on a great play call.  Each of the rookie TE's also came up with big catches in their debuts, which helps make this offense even more dangerous by providing extra weapons.  Hernandez had one of the game's biggest plays on a 45 yard reception where he showed excellent vision in using his blockers to gain extra yardage after the catch, while Gronkowski gives them another much needed threat in the red zone.

Randy Moss had a decent, yet unspectacular day, with 5 catches for 59 yards.  He made more news off the field after the game, with his post-game rant about feeling unwanted and unlikely to return to the team next year.  Poor baby.  He's sad that the team hasn't rushed to throw millions of dollars at a 33 year old WR nearing the tail end of his career.  Considering they only recently locked up Brady to an extension and still have the Logan Mankins situation to deal with, can you blame them for wanting to wait on offering him a new deal?  Playing for his next contract may even motivate him to have a monster season.  The team just has to hope that the decision doesn't have the opposite effect, causing Moss to sulk and try to force his way out of town like he did with his last two teams that couldn't wait to get rid of him.  Moss has a history of leaving teams on bad terms (remind anyone of Manny Ramirez?).  They are playing with fire and have to hope they don't get burned, but a motivated Moss can be one of the most dangerous players in the league.

The offensive line was a concern due to the Logan Mankins holdout and the injury to Nick Kazcur, but they held up pretty well in this game.  They are dangerously thin at the position, but barring more injuries to the line, they appear to be in decent shape.  Brady was not sacked in the game and was only hit twice.

Brady looked great in this game, as shown by his 120.9 QB rating, 3 TD, 0 Turnover performance.  The yardage total wasn't quite as impressive, but that had more to do with a lack of opportunities, as the team was able to put up points in a variety of ways.  Brandon Tate's kick-off return for a TD to open the 3rd quarter as well as Gary Guyton's Interception that he returned for another TD accounted for 1/3 of the team's scores. 

The Patriots dominated this game, but you wouldn't know it by looking at the box scores.  The Bengals led in time of possession, pass completions and passing yards by a wide margin.  Watching the game though it was clear that the Patriots were in control for the entire game.  Most of their passing yardage came in garbage time as the Bengals desperately tried to air the ball out in an attempt to come back.  They scored 3 TDs in the second half against a Patriots team that at times looked a little too comfortable with their lead, but even that wasn't enough to get them in position to be anywhere near a comeback.  Take away the 50 yard Hail Mary pass that was stopped a few yards from the endzone as time expired in the first half and Carson Palmer's numbers don't look quite as impressive.  Speaking of which, where were OchoCinco and TO during that play?  The team's two best receivers were back in the locker room, having decided the half was over before it really was, and it may have cost them a chance to get back in the game and gain a little momentum.

The biggest concerns for this team were with the young defense, but they held up pretty well.  They seemed to relax a little too much with a big lead in the second half, which is a concern given the number of games they lost last year due to a second half collapse, but they still managed to get the job done.  The secondary is still young, but they did an admirable job containing two dangerous receivers.  Most of OchoCinco's 159 yards came at the end of the game when the Bengals were forced to throw.  The Patriots allowed them to connect on short passes that continued to eat up the clock.

Pass rush was a major concern, but they managed to record a sack with a combined effort from Tully Banta-Cain and Myron Pryor while also hitting Carson Palmer 6 times in the game.  They also recovered a Fumble and had the back-breaking Pick-Six from Guyton.  There were several plays where Patriot defenders got their hand on a ball to break up a play, including one by rookie Devon McCourty on the first pass attempt of the game to Terrell Owens.  A few of those plays were near Interceptions.  As these young players continue to develop as playmakers then some of those are going to turn into Turnovers.

The loss of Ty Warren up front was expected to be disastrous for the run defense, but it didn't show in this game.  That's partly due to the Bengals having to abandon the run early after getting behind, but Cedric Benson still carried the ball 15 times and managed only 43 yards (2.9 Avg/Carry).  They also stopped the Bengals with a tackle for a loss 4 times.  Pretty impressive against a team that relied mostly on a productive run game last season on their way to winning the AFC North.

For what this defense is missing in experience, they make up for with speed.  The infusion of youth has given the team a dynamic advantage that Patriots teams have often been missing in the past.  They may not have some of the hard hitting savvy veterans of years past, but they can now rely on a different element that Bill Belichick is sure to use to their advantage.

It's only one week, but it's a great start.  This win showed us several things that give hope for this season.  Looking ahead to next week against the Jets, this game could show as a sign that they are prepared to handle them in similar fashion.  Even if Moss finds himself lost on Revis Island again, a healthy Welker and some new added weapons on offense will allow Brady to spread the ball around and still move the chains.  The defense has no reason to fear Sanchez and the Jet's passing attack, and they just showed that they are capable of containing a good running game.  It will be interesting to see how the Jets perform tonight against Baltimore, but if the Patriots can play next week the way they played this week then they should be in good position to take an early division lead over their rivals.  With the Colts looking mortal after their shocking loss to Houston, the AFC is more wide open than expected.  Several things still need to break their way as the season progresses, but it's looking like there's a chance for this team to reclaim their throne on top of the AFC once again.

NFL Preview

It pains me to say it, but I'm concerned about the New England Patriots this year.  After dominating the AFC East for the past decade, the Patriots may not be the favorites to win their own division for the first time in a long time.  They failed only twice in the past 10 years to win the division, but even when they didn't win they came close, and entered the season as the clear favorite.  Despite winning the division last year, the humiliating first round playoff exit left a sour taste in our mouths.  Meanwhile the Jets have become a trendy pick to become a contender after their trip to the AFC Championship game. 

Ok, so granted the Jets would not have made the playoffs if their final two opponents, who had already locked up playoff seeds, hadn't handed them victories.  Then the Football Gods struck the Bengals with a case of bad karma to punish them for not playing hard in week 17, causing them to lose to the team they allowed into the playoffs by waiving the white flag the previous week.  Then San Diego's Pro Bowl kicker missed a couple of clutch kicks to give the Jets a win in the second round.  So their run wasn't really that impressive.  But they still have the league's best defense, a young franchise QB and they star in this season of HBO's Hard Knocks.  So, needless to say, they are getting some media attention.

Meanwhile, with the Jets on the rise, the Patriots are dealing with some issues that may put them on the decline.  Their defense is rebuilding, having lost several veterans over the past couple of years through retirements, trades and free agency.  They have a lot of young players that will need to step up in order for this unit to be effective.

Injuries have already taken a toll as well.  The offensive line is already missing it's best Guard, Logan Mankins, who is still holding out on his contract and could miss the entire season.  They also lost Nick Kaczur for the season.  With the lack of depth on the line, another injury could be devastating to the protection of Tom Brady.  Injuries have taken a bigger toll on defense.  The front line lost Ty Warren for the season, and our top Corner Back, Leigh Bodden, is out as well.  The loss of Warren is huge, but the loss of Bodden may be even bigger because it forces the Pats to start the youngest starting secondary in the league, including rookie Devin McCourtney. 

The offense should be able to continue to play at a high level.  Brady is another year removed from his knee injury, and Wes Welker seems to have recovered quickly and should continue to improve as the season progresses.  Randy Moss is in a contract year, so you know he will play hard.  We should also see contributions from some of the young wide receivers, as well as the two rookie Tight Ends.  As long as the offensive line doesn't fall apart, this should be an explosive offense.  Hopefully that will be enough to compensate for a defense that could be inconsistent at best.

To clarify, not all is doom and gloom in New England.  I still expect them to be a playoff team, even if they don't win the division.  However, given the key losses and lack of depth and experience at several positions, they do not look like a team that can be expected to be Super Bowl contenders.  Other top contenders  would need to suffer similar setbacks or catch some bad breaks for the Pats to surpass them in the AFC unless some of these young players can step up big.  It's certainly possible, but not something we can count on yet.  There is a lot of good young talent on this team, so the future looks bright, but until they are ready to break out and show their full potential, that outlook is still in the future.

Pre-Season Predictions

AFC
East: Jets (10-6)
North: Ravens (11-5)
South: Colts (13-3)
West: Chargers (9-7)
Wild Card: Patriots (10-6) and Bengals (9-7)

NFC
East: Cowboys (11-5)
North: Packers (12-4)
South: Saints (11-5)
West: 49ers (9-7)
Wild Card: Vikings (11-5) and Falcons (10-6)

Super Bowl
Cowboys over Colts

MVP
Aaron Rodgers (QB-Packers)

Rookie of the Year
Ryan Mathews (RB-Chargers)

Defensive Player of the Year
Darrell Revis (CB-Jets)