The July 31st trade deadline is right around the corner, leaving the Red Sox with little time to determine if they will be buyers or sellers. As it stands now, the Sox are 7 games back of New York in the AL East and 4 games back of Tampa in the Wild Card. They find themselves in the midst of a tough 10 game west coast trip, which so far has started out with an uninspiring 2-2 record against Oakland and Seattle. The next few games in Seattle and LA will go a long way to determine the fate of this season.
If they can manage to win more than half the games out west and stay within striking distance of a Wild Card spot then GM Theo Epstein may figure they are only a few missing pieces away from being a contender. Injuries have been a killer to the team this year, but the immanent returns of stars such as Victor Martinez, Dustin Pedroia and Josh Beckett could have a bigger impact than any trade they could make. This is a team that many predicted back in spring training would be among the best teams in baseball, with some picking them as the favorite to win the World Series. Certainly when they finally get their full roster healthy they will once again be the same team that everyone expected from the start.
But will it be too late by then?
That's what this week will determine. Currently only the Yankees, Rays and Rangers have a better record than the Red Sox in the AL. Unfortunately, two of those teams are in the same division as Boston. Barring a complete collapse by both New York and Tampa, the division title is seemingly out of reach at this point. If they can tread water a little longer while waiting for their starters to return from the dreaded DL then they may be just a hot streak away from challenging Tampa for the Wild Card lead.
In order for Boston to make a run toward the postseason they are going to need some help. The top of the rotation has been stellar thanks to Lester and Buchholz, and adding a healthy Beckett should only help strengthen the rotation. Behind them, John Lackey has been an expensive disappointment, Matzusaka has been wildly inconsistant (which oddly enough is consistent with the rest of his career) and Tim Wakefield looks like he may not hold up for the rest of the season. The bullpen is a mess, with no trustworthy options behind Papelbon and Bard. Injuries to the Outfield and at Catcher have also put them in the market to add more depth at both positions.
Who is out there that they could get to improve this year?
Not much, unfortunately. With Cliff Lee having gone to Texas, there still are a few quality starters on the trading block, including Dan Haren, Roy Oswalt and Ted Lilly. Those are all expensive options in both dollars and in what prospects it would take to acquire them, so it seems unlikely the Sox would make such a bold move. There is bullpen help available, including Kerry Wood, David Aardsma and Octavio Dotel, but every contending team has a need for bullpen help, so the competition could drive up the price for those players, forcing any team interested in acquiring them to overpay for the underachieving Closers.
Rumors have swirled over the possibility of acquiring Chris Snyder or Chris Iannetta to help at Catcher, but it would be unwise to pay too much for a backup Catcher and the teams have so far seemed less than interested in what the Sox are willing to offer for them. The Catcher position will probably wait to be evaluated in the offseason once they decide whether or not to bring back Victor Martinez as their Catcher for the long term.
An intriguing option that may be available is Phillies slugger Jayson Werth. Philadelphia finds itself in a similar position as Boston, where injuries may have taken them out of playoff contention this year. Werth will be a free agent and since they don't expect to re-sign him and have stud prospect Dominic Brown ready to step in, it is believed Werth may be available. Werth is a 5 tool player that would be a great fit in Boston's lineup. If the price is right for a deal then the Sox should consider it, provided they are confident in their ability to re-sign him after this year. Since the postseason may be somewhat of a long shot this year, it could backfire if they give up a valuable prospect only to lose Werth after this season.
Aside from a possible move for Werth, it seems unlikely that Epstein would be looking to make the kind of blockbuster deadline moves that he's become famous for the past few years. They may be content with just adding a few minor pieces, primarily to the bullpen. If the team falls much further back in the race this week then the team may find themselves in a position where they may need to consider something that is unheard of in a market like Boston.
Sell! Sell! Sell!
Wait, seriously? You can't possibly expect the Red Sox to waive the white flag and give up on their season. As crazy as it seems, we are dangerously close to seeing it happen. Or at least needing it to happen. If the next few games don't go well then Boston could potentially have put themselves in too big a hole that even the combination of getting back their injured players and making some bold trades may not be enough to overcome talented teams like the Yankees and Rays.
If the team were to consider selling at the deadline, here are some players it could make sense to move.
Jonathan Papelbon: With Josh Bard waiting in the wings to become the future Closer, now could be the time to trade Paps. A lot of teams could use bullpen help, and there is nobody else available capable of making the kind of impact that he can. He becomes more expensive each year and has made it clear that when he becomes eligible for free agency he plans to test the market. It would be wise to explore what they can get for him now rather than watch him walk away later. The Twins are one team that could use a proven Closer if they make the playoffs and may be willing to part with top Catching prospect Wilson Ramos now that they have Joe Maur locked up long term.
David Ortiz: The team has a $12.5 million option to keep him for next year. Given how slowly he started out again this year it seemed unlikely they would consider taking it, but since he's recovered to put up All-Star numbers again then that option is beginning to look like a relative bargain. It also means that his trade value won't be any higher than it is now. There is no doubt that his skills are in decline. Maybe he won't end up hitting his way out of an early season slump next season. Maybe the team doesn't want to wait around to find out. Trade targets would have to be limited to AL teams, since an NL team probably would not want to use him at 1B full time. They likely wouldn't deal with the Yankees or Rays and Texas already uses Vlad Guerrero as their DH. That limits the options considerably. The White Sox have been looking to add another bat to their lineup and could be a good fit.
J.D. Drew: Despite what you may hear from fans and the media (he's overpaid, injury prone, and an emotionless robot), Drew has actually played very well during his time in Boston. He gets on base, has a high OPS and plays good defense. He's just not the star people expected when the Sox signed him to a 5 year $70 million deal. That deal expires next year, and it's unlikely that the team will be interested in him beyond that when he'll be 35 years old. Trading him away now frees up money and an outfield spot to chase this offseason's free agents, such as Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth. San Diego could use a bat like his in their lineup. He may be too expensive for their taste, but given that it's not a long term commitment they may be interested if Boston will pay part of the remaining contract.
Adrian Beltre: His contract includes a very affordable $10 million option for next year, which would make him a bargain based on the way he's played this year. The problem is, it's a player option, which he's unlikely to take knowing that the year he's having should get him paid a lot more. Perhaps Boston intends to re-sign him to a more lucrative long term extension, but if they plan to pursue someone like Adrian Gonzalez again in the offseason then that wouldn't leave room for Beltre (Youkilis would shift to 3B in that scenario). He would be a good fit in Texas if they could get either him or Michael Young to move to 1B to replace the disappointing Chris Davis.
Victor Martinez: Could last season's trade deadline prize be this year's deadline giveaway? That all depends on if the Sox see him in their future. He has never been a great defensive Catcher and his skills behind the plate will only deteriorate over time. If they keep him beyond this year then he likely would need to be used at 1B or DH about half the time. If so, then his fate may be tied to what choices the Sox make at other positions - keeping Ortiz and Beltre or going after another 1B slugger. Lots of teams need Catchers, but an AL team is more likely to inquire about him since they could use him part time at DH.
Mike Lowell: Ok, so they have been trying to trade him all year, and would regardless of if they are in the race or not. There's just no room for him on this team, which is a real shame. Texas might still be interested in re-visiting the trade that almost went through earlier this season.
Tim Wakefield: Umm, well he was an All-Star last year. Just kidding, nobody would trade for him. He'll stick with the Red Sox until he eventually retires, probably around his 50th birthday.
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