The July 31st trade deadline is right around the corner, leaving the Red Sox with little time to determine if they will be buyers or sellers. As it stands now, the Sox are 7 games back of New York in the AL East and 4 games back of Tampa in the Wild Card. They find themselves in the midst of a tough 10 game west coast trip, which so far has started out with an uninspiring 2-2 record against Oakland and Seattle. The next few games in Seattle and LA will go a long way to determine the fate of this season.
If they can manage to win more than half the games out west and stay within striking distance of a Wild Card spot then GM Theo Epstein may figure they are only a few missing pieces away from being a contender. Injuries have been a killer to the team this year, but the immanent returns of stars such as Victor Martinez, Dustin Pedroia and Josh Beckett could have a bigger impact than any trade they could make. This is a team that many predicted back in spring training would be among the best teams in baseball, with some picking them as the favorite to win the World Series. Certainly when they finally get their full roster healthy they will once again be the same team that everyone expected from the start.
But will it be too late by then?
That's what this week will determine. Currently only the Yankees, Rays and Rangers have a better record than the Red Sox in the AL. Unfortunately, two of those teams are in the same division as Boston. Barring a complete collapse by both New York and Tampa, the division title is seemingly out of reach at this point. If they can tread water a little longer while waiting for their starters to return from the dreaded DL then they may be just a hot streak away from challenging Tampa for the Wild Card lead.
In order for Boston to make a run toward the postseason they are going to need some help. The top of the rotation has been stellar thanks to Lester and Buchholz, and adding a healthy Beckett should only help strengthen the rotation. Behind them, John Lackey has been an expensive disappointment, Matzusaka has been wildly inconsistant (which oddly enough is consistent with the rest of his career) and Tim Wakefield looks like he may not hold up for the rest of the season. The bullpen is a mess, with no trustworthy options behind Papelbon and Bard. Injuries to the Outfield and at Catcher have also put them in the market to add more depth at both positions.
Who is out there that they could get to improve this year?
Not much, unfortunately. With Cliff Lee having gone to Texas, there still are a few quality starters on the trading block, including Dan Haren, Roy Oswalt and Ted Lilly. Those are all expensive options in both dollars and in what prospects it would take to acquire them, so it seems unlikely the Sox would make such a bold move. There is bullpen help available, including Kerry Wood, David Aardsma and Octavio Dotel, but every contending team has a need for bullpen help, so the competition could drive up the price for those players, forcing any team interested in acquiring them to overpay for the underachieving Closers.
Rumors have swirled over the possibility of acquiring Chris Snyder or Chris Iannetta to help at Catcher, but it would be unwise to pay too much for a backup Catcher and the teams have so far seemed less than interested in what the Sox are willing to offer for them. The Catcher position will probably wait to be evaluated in the offseason once they decide whether or not to bring back Victor Martinez as their Catcher for the long term.
An intriguing option that may be available is Phillies slugger Jayson Werth. Philadelphia finds itself in a similar position as Boston, where injuries may have taken them out of playoff contention this year. Werth will be a free agent and since they don't expect to re-sign him and have stud prospect Dominic Brown ready to step in, it is believed Werth may be available. Werth is a 5 tool player that would be a great fit in Boston's lineup. If the price is right for a deal then the Sox should consider it, provided they are confident in their ability to re-sign him after this year. Since the postseason may be somewhat of a long shot this year, it could backfire if they give up a valuable prospect only to lose Werth after this season.
Aside from a possible move for Werth, it seems unlikely that Epstein would be looking to make the kind of blockbuster deadline moves that he's become famous for the past few years. They may be content with just adding a few minor pieces, primarily to the bullpen. If the team falls much further back in the race this week then the team may find themselves in a position where they may need to consider something that is unheard of in a market like Boston.
Sell! Sell! Sell!
Wait, seriously? You can't possibly expect the Red Sox to waive the white flag and give up on their season. As crazy as it seems, we are dangerously close to seeing it happen. Or at least needing it to happen. If the next few games don't go well then Boston could potentially have put themselves in too big a hole that even the combination of getting back their injured players and making some bold trades may not be enough to overcome talented teams like the Yankees and Rays.
If the team were to consider selling at the deadline, here are some players it could make sense to move.
Jonathan Papelbon: With Josh Bard waiting in the wings to become the future Closer, now could be the time to trade Paps. A lot of teams could use bullpen help, and there is nobody else available capable of making the kind of impact that he can. He becomes more expensive each year and has made it clear that when he becomes eligible for free agency he plans to test the market. It would be wise to explore what they can get for him now rather than watch him walk away later. The Twins are one team that could use a proven Closer if they make the playoffs and may be willing to part with top Catching prospect Wilson Ramos now that they have Joe Maur locked up long term.
David Ortiz: The team has a $12.5 million option to keep him for next year. Given how slowly he started out again this year it seemed unlikely they would consider taking it, but since he's recovered to put up All-Star numbers again then that option is beginning to look like a relative bargain. It also means that his trade value won't be any higher than it is now. There is no doubt that his skills are in decline. Maybe he won't end up hitting his way out of an early season slump next season. Maybe the team doesn't want to wait around to find out. Trade targets would have to be limited to AL teams, since an NL team probably would not want to use him at 1B full time. They likely wouldn't deal with the Yankees or Rays and Texas already uses Vlad Guerrero as their DH. That limits the options considerably. The White Sox have been looking to add another bat to their lineup and could be a good fit.
J.D. Drew: Despite what you may hear from fans and the media (he's overpaid, injury prone, and an emotionless robot), Drew has actually played very well during his time in Boston. He gets on base, has a high OPS and plays good defense. He's just not the star people expected when the Sox signed him to a 5 year $70 million deal. That deal expires next year, and it's unlikely that the team will be interested in him beyond that when he'll be 35 years old. Trading him away now frees up money and an outfield spot to chase this offseason's free agents, such as Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth. San Diego could use a bat like his in their lineup. He may be too expensive for their taste, but given that it's not a long term commitment they may be interested if Boston will pay part of the remaining contract.
Adrian Beltre: His contract includes a very affordable $10 million option for next year, which would make him a bargain based on the way he's played this year. The problem is, it's a player option, which he's unlikely to take knowing that the year he's having should get him paid a lot more. Perhaps Boston intends to re-sign him to a more lucrative long term extension, but if they plan to pursue someone like Adrian Gonzalez again in the offseason then that wouldn't leave room for Beltre (Youkilis would shift to 3B in that scenario). He would be a good fit in Texas if they could get either him or Michael Young to move to 1B to replace the disappointing Chris Davis.
Victor Martinez: Could last season's trade deadline prize be this year's deadline giveaway? That all depends on if the Sox see him in their future. He has never been a great defensive Catcher and his skills behind the plate will only deteriorate over time. If they keep him beyond this year then he likely would need to be used at 1B or DH about half the time. If so, then his fate may be tied to what choices the Sox make at other positions - keeping Ortiz and Beltre or going after another 1B slugger. Lots of teams need Catchers, but an AL team is more likely to inquire about him since they could use him part time at DH.
Mike Lowell: Ok, so they have been trying to trade him all year, and would regardless of if they are in the race or not. There's just no room for him on this team, which is a real shame. Texas might still be interested in re-visiting the trade that almost went through earlier this season.
Tim Wakefield: Umm, well he was an All-Star last year. Just kidding, nobody would trade for him. He'll stick with the Red Sox until he eventually retires, probably around his 50th birthday.
Friday, July 23, 2010
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
Free Agency Report Card
It's been less than a week since NBA free agents have been allowed to officially sign contracts with their new teams, but with the big name players all off the board, it's time to grade teams on their offseason moves thus far. Note that for many of these teams the offseason is still incomplete, as there is still work to be done to fill in their rosters. However, barring a blockbuster trade, the remaining moves should be relatively minor enough that they likely would not alter these grades much.
Atlanta
Grade: C-
Who would have thought when the free agent frenzy began that Joe Johnson would be the one to walk away with the biggest pay check? After last season's disappointing playoff exit, in which Johnson performed poorly, it was not expected that he would be back in Atlanta. Rumors swirled of JJ moving to New York or Chicago, among other places, but none of these teams considered him to be a max contract type of player. He's not worth that kind of money now, at 28 years old, and he certainly won't be near the end of that 6 year $119 million contract.
The plus side for Atlanta is that if they had let Johnson walk away then they likely would have taken a step back for a team that finished with the third best record in the East last season. For the short term it keeps them in the picture as a contender. In the long term though, this contract could become a burden, especially if Johnson begins to decline.
For a team unwilling to pay the luxury tax, this move will prevent them from doing much to improve a roster that seemingly only has a second round playoff ceiling. Because of this deal they already were forced to give away the rights to restricted free agent Josh Childress (who is returning from Europe) for a second round pick because they couldn't afford to match the offer he was given by Phoenix. It may also impact their ability to re-sign some of their other core players, such as Josh Smith and Al Horford, when their contracts come up a few years down the line.
Boston
Grade: B+
A team that came within 6 minutes of winning a title shouldn't need to do a whole lot to improve. Their grade isn't as much about what they gained this offseason as it is about what they didn't lose. The Celtics entered the offseason with a lot of question marks, but they did what they needed to do by convincing coach Doc Rivers to return for at least another year, as well as agreeing to new deals with stars Paul Pierce and Ray Allen. They kept the core together to try to extend the window they have to try to win another championship with this group. Thanks to Kevin Garnett's cap clogging contract, the Celtics didn't have many options to replace those guys if they left. They convinced Pierce to take less money this year by opting out of the last year of his contract in order to sign a 4 year deal that should ensure he finishes his career in Boston. Allen may have gotten more money and years elsewhere, but he is determined to try to win in Boston, agreeing to a very team friendly two year deal, which will expire the same time that KG's contract does.
They also used their mid-level exception on a two year deal for veteran Jermaine O'Neal. He may be a far cry from his former All-Star form, but he's still a defensive presence with shot blocking ability, which will be greatly needed for a team that may be without Kendrik Perkins until January due to offseason surgery.
They were able to re-sign Nate Robinson to a two year deal that falls in line with the team's plan to re-build after that time. He can provide a spark off the bench and bring some needed energy to the 2nd unit.
The one blemish on their offseason so far has been letting defensive stopper Tony Allen get away. The three year $10 million deal he received from Memphis doesn't seem like a lot to match for a guy that helped shut down Dwayne Wade, Lebron James and Kobe Bryant in the playoffs, but given his injury history the team did not want to commit to that many years.
Since they are over the salary cap it may be difficult to find suitable players to fill in the roster, but one luxury the team may have is the ability to trade Rasheed Wallace's contract to a team looking to shed salary and receive a player that makes around that same $6 million salary. Wallace intends to retire, which would allow the team that trades for him to drop his salary from their books. This should allow Boston to obtain a better player than what they would likely afford in free agency.
Charlotte
Grade: D-
It's hard to fathom what the plan is for Michael Jordan and the Bobcats. First they nearly went through with trading Tyson Chandler and Boris Diaw for Jose Calderon. Then when that fell apart they instead traded Chandler for Erik Dampier's non-guaranteed contract, Eduardo Najara and Matt Carroll. Dampier will likely be waived to cut costs, but the contracts of Najara and Caroll will cost them more over the next three years than Chandler's expiring contract would have. So they traded their starting center away without getting any long term financial relief. They could still salvage the situation by trading Dampier's contract for something better than Chandler, but if that option was currently available then Dallas would have done it instead. They would have been better off keeping Chandler and trading him at the deadline if they weren't in contention. Instead they will likely waive Dampier and end up with nothing but a couple of bad contracts.
Chicago
Grade: B+
Chicago was one of the teams that shed contracts to get far enough under the cap to afford two max free agents, so to come away without any max players must be a bit of a disappointment. They ideally would have liked to bring in LeBron and Bosh to form an outstanding starting unit that already includes Rose and Noah. I still think those two would have been better off with this team rather than joining Wade in Miami. The Bulls still did pretty well, by bringing in Carlos Boozer to fill their biggest need of a low post scorer. He should be a great complement to the defensive minded Noah in the frontcourt.
The Bulls still have plenty of cap room remaining to fill in the rest of their roster, with their biggest need being a shooter. They recently added Kyle Korver to help with that and are also looking at JJ Reddick.
Cleveland
Grade: F
Anything that didn't involve keeping LeBron James has to be considered a failure. The team went all in to try to win the past couple of seasons with him. Now that he's gone they have not only become a likely lottery team, but they are burdened with the contracts like Antawn Jameson and Mo Williams. They aren't good enough to be a playoff contender, but don't have the money to start rebuilding unless they can trade those guys to contenders for younger players or draft picks.
It also can't help the team that their owner ranted like a lunatic after learning that James had agreed to flee for Miami. Dan Gilbert wrote a letter to Cavs fans that called out LeBron for his "shameful" and "disgusting" behavior, not just for the fact that he was leaving Cleveland, but for the self promoting way he showcased "The Decision" on national television. He felt James was rubbing it in their faces and he was quick to retaliate, going as far to belittle James' accomplishments and accuse him of quitting on his team during the playoffs. While some of what he said may be true, it doesn't exactly paint the picture of a stable environment. It's hard enough for a city like Cleveland to attract free agents, but this episode likely won't help with that.
The one good move they made was agreeing to a sign and trade with Miami for LeBron James, which allowed them to get a few future draft picks and a large trade exception.
Dallas
Grade: B+
The Mavs handled their biggest priority by bringing back Dirk Nowitzki with a very reasonable 4 year $80 million deal. They also re-signed Brendan Haywood to a 6 year $55 million deal, which seems like a lot except when you consider the cash that teams were throwing around to other role players. If Darko Milicic is worth $5 million per year (he's not, but more on that later) then maybe Haywood's deal isn't too bad.
The rumors of trades for LeBron James or Steve Nash were long shots, so it's unfair to fault them for not getting those done, but I still expected Mark Cuban to be more aggressive. Perhaps he still will.
His most valuable trading chip, Erik Dampier's non-guaranteed contract, was just traded to Charlotte for Tyson Chandler. He should add some defensive toughness to the bench, but if he doesn't work out then his expiring contract could make him another trade asset. The trade also rid them of the dead weight contracts of Najara and Carroll, which helps give them some financial flexability after this year.
Golden State
Grade: B-
The Warriors are a mess and did not have the cap room to go after a top free agent, yet they managed to get one anyway via a sign and trade with New York to acquire All-Star big man David Lee. The up tempo style they play is similar to what Lee was used to in NY, and he should thrive on offense off pick and rolls from Stephan Curry. As good as he is on the offensive end, Lee is dismal on defense. It's not from lack of effort, he's just slow to react and lacks good defensive instincts. The Warriors traded away promising youngster Anthony Randolph, as well as their best defensive big man in Ronnie Turiaf. This team isn't likely to be any less dysfunctional and will lose a lot of high scoring games, but getting a player the caliber of Lee is a step in the right direction.
The Warriors also lost Anthony Marrow, one of the game's best three point shooters, who was sent to New Jersey in a sign and trade. They have lost a lot of good young talent without getting much in return besides Lee.
Miami
Grade: A
Miami made the biggest coup of the offseason, by getting the top three free agents on the market: Dwayne Wade, LeBron James and Chris Bosh. The trio is unlike anything the league has ever seen assembled through free agency and makes them instant contenders. The three All-Stars will attempt to put egos aside to co-exist as they strive to form a dynasty that could result in multiple titles. They each agreed to take less money in order to facilitate adding all three of them, while still leaving a little extra left over to fill out the rest of the roster.
The team also found a taker for Michael Beasely, freeing up another $5 million, which they used on free agent Mike Miller. This will give them a versatile shooter that can rebound and pass the ball well.
The rest of the roster will need to be filled out with rookies and veterans willing to play for cheap. The hope is that there are some veterans eager to win a title that will be willing to jump on board for cheap. Udonis Haslem appears to be the first to do so, turning down the full mid-level exception from other teams in order to re-sign with the Heat for much less. Zydrunas Ilgauskas appears to be willing to join them as well.
There are still too many holes on the roster to consider them the favorite right now (most notably the lack of an interior defender that would get them killed by the likes of the Lakers or Magic), but they will be able to piece together more of a supporting cast later in the season when veterans from other teams get waived, or in future offseasons using their mid-level exception.
There is also the question of how well James and Wade will fit together. Bosh is the perfect compliment to both of them, but they themselves may be too similar to co-exist. They both thrive with the ball in their hands and both want to be the alpha dog. On the other hand, they are both unselfish players (both averaged over 6 assists per game despite minimal help to pass to) that can learn to play together. It may take some time, but these guys are too good not to figure it out eventually. If they truly want to win titles then they need to sacrifice some of their own stats. To find an example of three star players compromising their own personal stats in favor of the team's goals they need only to look back two years to when the Celtics big three won the title.
Minnesota
Grade: C-
The Wolves apparently liked what they saw out of Darko Milicic after they traded for him last season, but 4 years $20 million is too much. The former #2 overall pick (who was drafted ahead of Carmelo Anthony, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh) has proven to be a bust compared to others in his draft class, but he still holds value as a defender, which is something the Wolves desperatly needed. It's unclear who they were competing against for Milicic though, so they likely could have gotten him for less, but apparently were not willing to take that risk.
Al Jefferson and Kevin Love have shown that their lack of defensive ability makes them impossible to play together, so it was clear that Jefferson had become expendable. It appears they will be sending him to Utah in exchange for two first round draft picks (one of which Utah had received from Memphis). While one of those draft picks could end up being a lottery pick, it still seems that they should have gotten more than draft picks and salary relief for a player that was supposed to be their franchise player after they traded Kevin Garnett for him 3 years ago. Big Al is still not completely healthy from a knee injury he sustained 2 seasons ago, so it's clear they sold him while his value was still low.
I do like the move they made with Miami to trade for Michael Beasley. He is another former #2 overall pick that has yet to live up to expectations, but he's still only 21 years old and showed glimpses of his potential. Maybe living in Minnesota will provide less opportunities for him to get in trouble off the court. If he can focus on his game on the court then he still has a lot of upside, and it only cost them a second round pick.
Adding Luke Ridnour to a four year deal was a curious move. The team is already overloaded with point guards, so adding another isn't likely to entice Ricky Rubio to return from Europe to join that log jam. They are looking to trade Ramon Sessions, but with Jonny Flynn still on the roster it could still be a crowded backcourt if Rubio ever joins. The success of this signing may be determined on what they are able to acquire for Sessions. It may also be a sign that they don't expect Rubio to ever want to join them, which means he may become a trade candidate as well.
New Jersey
Grade: C-
Their new Russian billionaire owner was looking to make a big splash in his debut season and came away empty handed. LeBron was their plan A of course, but plan B, C, D and E also fell through. If they couldn't get one of the top free agents then they would have loved to get David Lee, because it at least would allow them to steal some fans from the Knicks by signing their former fan favorite All-Star. Unfortunately he went to Golden State in a sign and trade, so once again NJ missed out.
Their biggest offseason acquisition has been Travis Outlaw. He's a nice young role player, but probably not worth the 5 year $35 million he received. They also received sharpshooter Anthony Morrow in a sign and trade with Golden State.
They still have a nice young core to build around, with Devin Harris, Brook Lopez and Derrick Favors. They didn't unnecessarily blow all their cap space for the sake of using it up, so they can still be in the running for free agents next year, especially since they will be another year closer to moving to Brooklyn, which will make them a much more attractive destination.
New York
Grade: B+
The Knicks had been looking forward to this offseason more than anyone. They started tanking over two years ago by shedding salary and sacrificing draft picks to put them in position to get LeBron James, but despite being one of the leading contenders to acquire him, they ended up being one of the many teams that were left disappointed. That didn't stop them from making a splash in the free agent market though. They still managed to sign Amare Stoudamire to a 5 year $100 million deal. That seems like a lot of money for a guy with multiple injury concerns that has often been questioned for his lack of intensity on defense and rebounding, but the Knicks were desperate to spend their money on something big this offseason. They had been promising their fans for too long that there was a light at the end of the tunnel and they couldn't disappoint them by doing nothing. Stoudamire is an offensive force, who had his best seasons playing for Mike D'Antoni (who now happens to coach the Knicks), but with Phoenix he had Steve Nash delivering him the ball. New York lacks a point guard capable of getting the best out of Stoudamire, at least for now. The hope is that he'll be able to draw other stars to join him in NY. When he signed with NY he made it known that his intentions were to lure Carmelo Anthony and Tony Parker to join him next year.
The irony is that for as good as Stoudamire can be, he may not be much of an upgrade over the guy he replaced - David Lee. Stoudamire is a more explosive offensive player, but he can't create for himself as well as Lee and doesn't rebound nearly as well. He's a flashier name, but may not give them more production.
Despite having the cap room for another free agent signing, the Knicks decided to let Lee go, knowing that a pairing of him and Stoudamire in the front court would be a nightmare on defense that wouldn't be able to stop anybody. They just don't fit well together. But instead of letting him go for nothing they managed to do a sign and trade with Golden State that brought them back some nice assets. Anthony Randolph is a young promising athletic player that was never utilized correctly in Golden State. They may have given up on him too early and he could become a good player. Ronnie Turiaf gives them some defensive muscle to help in the frontcourt, and Kelenna Azubuike is a versatile wingman that can be useful off the bench.
Phoneix
Grade: C-
For a team that just made it to the Western Conference Finals, the Suns have undergone a pretty big makeover this offseason. Their biggest loss was letting Amare Stoudamire leave, without even working out a sign and trade that could have brought them back something in return (such as David Lee?). They at least could have gotten some future draft picks and a large trade exception. Having GM Steve Kerr resign at the start of the offseason, leaving owner Robert Sarvar to handle the team himself, has really hurt the Suns.
Channing Frye was due for a raise after he proved useful as a big man that can stretch the floor, but overpaying for Hakim Warrick seemed odd, especially since it happened before Stoudamire had made a decision on where he would sign.
The Suns just traded a 2nd round pick to the Hawks for Josh Childress. It will be interesting to see how Childress adapts to the NBA game after taking a brief hiatus to play in Europe, but there isn't much risk with this move, thanks to the Hawks being unable to afford to keep him.
They also traded for Hedo Turkoglu, who is coming of a disappointing season and is signed to a big contract for 4 more years. It was reported that he waived a $5 million trade bonus and will accept less guaranteed money in the final year of the contract in order to facilitate the trade, but it's still a risky investment for a declining player that has proved to be most effective in a system where he can play a "point-forward" role. Unfortunately the Suns already have a guy that does pretty well bringing the ball up.
It seems like after letting one of their best players walk away they ended up spending a lot of money on a bunch of role players without having another star around to help Nash carry the team. This could make things difficult for them to start rebuilding once Nash eventually retires, assuming Nash doesn't get frustrated by these offseason moves and demand a trade. That's unlikely given his nature and loyalty, but it would be hard to blame him if he did.
Toronto
Grade: B-
It's hard to downgrade their offseason much for losing Chris Bosh, since they essentially had no chance at keeping him. Even if he hadn't been able to join the Super Friends in Miami, Bosh had plenty of good options available and likely never gave much serious consideration to staying in Toronto. They were able to recover some draft picks for him by agreeing to a sign and trade in Miami, which includes their own 2011 draft pick that was sent to Miami in a previous trade and will likely be a top lottery pick, as well as get a large trade exemption.
Perhaps the best part of their offseason was finding a taker for Hedo Turkoglu's massive contract. He never fit in well with that team and was miserable there. It's time for Toronto to rebuild, which means there is no need for a high priced underachieving veteran to be locked up for multiple years on a losing team.
Utah
Grade: B-
Utah seemed content to let Carlos Boozer walk away, knowing that his replacement, Paul Milsap, was capable of putting up similar numbers at a cheaper price. With the uncertainty of Mehmet Okur's recovery from an injured Achilles, Boozer's departure left the Jazz without much depth in the front court. To rectify this they sent two first round draft picks to Minnesota for Al Jefferson. They were able to absorb Jefferson's $13 million contract without giving up any players because of the cap exception created in the sign and trade with Chicago for Boozer. So they essentially swapped Boozer and two draft picks for Jefferson and a 2nd round pick from Chicago.
Boozer is a risk as a long term investment, so it's not hard to see why they were willing to let him go, but Jefferson is still not fully recovered from a serious knee injury. If he's not 100% then he's a downgrade from Boozer. If they knew Boozer was going to get away from them then Jefferson isn't a bad back up plan considering it only cost them draft picks, and if he's healthy he's a potential All-Star player, but it's not without risk.
The Jazz also lost Kyle Korver, who signed with Chicago. They don't have a lot of room to sign a replacement shooter.
This article will continue to be updated throughout the offseason, as more signings and trades seem to be happening almost every day. Stay tuned.
Atlanta
Grade: C-
Who would have thought when the free agent frenzy began that Joe Johnson would be the one to walk away with the biggest pay check? After last season's disappointing playoff exit, in which Johnson performed poorly, it was not expected that he would be back in Atlanta. Rumors swirled of JJ moving to New York or Chicago, among other places, but none of these teams considered him to be a max contract type of player. He's not worth that kind of money now, at 28 years old, and he certainly won't be near the end of that 6 year $119 million contract.
The plus side for Atlanta is that if they had let Johnson walk away then they likely would have taken a step back for a team that finished with the third best record in the East last season. For the short term it keeps them in the picture as a contender. In the long term though, this contract could become a burden, especially if Johnson begins to decline.
For a team unwilling to pay the luxury tax, this move will prevent them from doing much to improve a roster that seemingly only has a second round playoff ceiling. Because of this deal they already were forced to give away the rights to restricted free agent Josh Childress (who is returning from Europe) for a second round pick because they couldn't afford to match the offer he was given by Phoenix. It may also impact their ability to re-sign some of their other core players, such as Josh Smith and Al Horford, when their contracts come up a few years down the line.
Boston
Grade: B+
A team that came within 6 minutes of winning a title shouldn't need to do a whole lot to improve. Their grade isn't as much about what they gained this offseason as it is about what they didn't lose. The Celtics entered the offseason with a lot of question marks, but they did what they needed to do by convincing coach Doc Rivers to return for at least another year, as well as agreeing to new deals with stars Paul Pierce and Ray Allen. They kept the core together to try to extend the window they have to try to win another championship with this group. Thanks to Kevin Garnett's cap clogging contract, the Celtics didn't have many options to replace those guys if they left. They convinced Pierce to take less money this year by opting out of the last year of his contract in order to sign a 4 year deal that should ensure he finishes his career in Boston. Allen may have gotten more money and years elsewhere, but he is determined to try to win in Boston, agreeing to a very team friendly two year deal, which will expire the same time that KG's contract does.
They also used their mid-level exception on a two year deal for veteran Jermaine O'Neal. He may be a far cry from his former All-Star form, but he's still a defensive presence with shot blocking ability, which will be greatly needed for a team that may be without Kendrik Perkins until January due to offseason surgery.
They were able to re-sign Nate Robinson to a two year deal that falls in line with the team's plan to re-build after that time. He can provide a spark off the bench and bring some needed energy to the 2nd unit.
The one blemish on their offseason so far has been letting defensive stopper Tony Allen get away. The three year $10 million deal he received from Memphis doesn't seem like a lot to match for a guy that helped shut down Dwayne Wade, Lebron James and Kobe Bryant in the playoffs, but given his injury history the team did not want to commit to that many years.
Since they are over the salary cap it may be difficult to find suitable players to fill in the roster, but one luxury the team may have is the ability to trade Rasheed Wallace's contract to a team looking to shed salary and receive a player that makes around that same $6 million salary. Wallace intends to retire, which would allow the team that trades for him to drop his salary from their books. This should allow Boston to obtain a better player than what they would likely afford in free agency.
Charlotte
Grade: D-
It's hard to fathom what the plan is for Michael Jordan and the Bobcats. First they nearly went through with trading Tyson Chandler and Boris Diaw for Jose Calderon. Then when that fell apart they instead traded Chandler for Erik Dampier's non-guaranteed contract, Eduardo Najara and Matt Carroll. Dampier will likely be waived to cut costs, but the contracts of Najara and Caroll will cost them more over the next three years than Chandler's expiring contract would have. So they traded their starting center away without getting any long term financial relief. They could still salvage the situation by trading Dampier's contract for something better than Chandler, but if that option was currently available then Dallas would have done it instead. They would have been better off keeping Chandler and trading him at the deadline if they weren't in contention. Instead they will likely waive Dampier and end up with nothing but a couple of bad contracts.
Chicago
Grade: B+
Chicago was one of the teams that shed contracts to get far enough under the cap to afford two max free agents, so to come away without any max players must be a bit of a disappointment. They ideally would have liked to bring in LeBron and Bosh to form an outstanding starting unit that already includes Rose and Noah. I still think those two would have been better off with this team rather than joining Wade in Miami. The Bulls still did pretty well, by bringing in Carlos Boozer to fill their biggest need of a low post scorer. He should be a great complement to the defensive minded Noah in the frontcourt.
The Bulls still have plenty of cap room remaining to fill in the rest of their roster, with their biggest need being a shooter. They recently added Kyle Korver to help with that and are also looking at JJ Reddick.
Cleveland
Grade: F
Anything that didn't involve keeping LeBron James has to be considered a failure. The team went all in to try to win the past couple of seasons with him. Now that he's gone they have not only become a likely lottery team, but they are burdened with the contracts like Antawn Jameson and Mo Williams. They aren't good enough to be a playoff contender, but don't have the money to start rebuilding unless they can trade those guys to contenders for younger players or draft picks.
It also can't help the team that their owner ranted like a lunatic after learning that James had agreed to flee for Miami. Dan Gilbert wrote a letter to Cavs fans that called out LeBron for his "shameful" and "disgusting" behavior, not just for the fact that he was leaving Cleveland, but for the self promoting way he showcased "The Decision" on national television. He felt James was rubbing it in their faces and he was quick to retaliate, going as far to belittle James' accomplishments and accuse him of quitting on his team during the playoffs. While some of what he said may be true, it doesn't exactly paint the picture of a stable environment. It's hard enough for a city like Cleveland to attract free agents, but this episode likely won't help with that.
The one good move they made was agreeing to a sign and trade with Miami for LeBron James, which allowed them to get a few future draft picks and a large trade exception.
Dallas
Grade: B+
The Mavs handled their biggest priority by bringing back Dirk Nowitzki with a very reasonable 4 year $80 million deal. They also re-signed Brendan Haywood to a 6 year $55 million deal, which seems like a lot except when you consider the cash that teams were throwing around to other role players. If Darko Milicic is worth $5 million per year (he's not, but more on that later) then maybe Haywood's deal isn't too bad.
The rumors of trades for LeBron James or Steve Nash were long shots, so it's unfair to fault them for not getting those done, but I still expected Mark Cuban to be more aggressive. Perhaps he still will.
His most valuable trading chip, Erik Dampier's non-guaranteed contract, was just traded to Charlotte for Tyson Chandler. He should add some defensive toughness to the bench, but if he doesn't work out then his expiring contract could make him another trade asset. The trade also rid them of the dead weight contracts of Najara and Carroll, which helps give them some financial flexability after this year.
Golden State
Grade: B-
The Warriors are a mess and did not have the cap room to go after a top free agent, yet they managed to get one anyway via a sign and trade with New York to acquire All-Star big man David Lee. The up tempo style they play is similar to what Lee was used to in NY, and he should thrive on offense off pick and rolls from Stephan Curry. As good as he is on the offensive end, Lee is dismal on defense. It's not from lack of effort, he's just slow to react and lacks good defensive instincts. The Warriors traded away promising youngster Anthony Randolph, as well as their best defensive big man in Ronnie Turiaf. This team isn't likely to be any less dysfunctional and will lose a lot of high scoring games, but getting a player the caliber of Lee is a step in the right direction.
The Warriors also lost Anthony Marrow, one of the game's best three point shooters, who was sent to New Jersey in a sign and trade. They have lost a lot of good young talent without getting much in return besides Lee.
Miami
Grade: A
Miami made the biggest coup of the offseason, by getting the top three free agents on the market: Dwayne Wade, LeBron James and Chris Bosh. The trio is unlike anything the league has ever seen assembled through free agency and makes them instant contenders. The three All-Stars will attempt to put egos aside to co-exist as they strive to form a dynasty that could result in multiple titles. They each agreed to take less money in order to facilitate adding all three of them, while still leaving a little extra left over to fill out the rest of the roster.
The team also found a taker for Michael Beasely, freeing up another $5 million, which they used on free agent Mike Miller. This will give them a versatile shooter that can rebound and pass the ball well.
The rest of the roster will need to be filled out with rookies and veterans willing to play for cheap. The hope is that there are some veterans eager to win a title that will be willing to jump on board for cheap. Udonis Haslem appears to be the first to do so, turning down the full mid-level exception from other teams in order to re-sign with the Heat for much less. Zydrunas Ilgauskas appears to be willing to join them as well.
There are still too many holes on the roster to consider them the favorite right now (most notably the lack of an interior defender that would get them killed by the likes of the Lakers or Magic), but they will be able to piece together more of a supporting cast later in the season when veterans from other teams get waived, or in future offseasons using their mid-level exception.
There is also the question of how well James and Wade will fit together. Bosh is the perfect compliment to both of them, but they themselves may be too similar to co-exist. They both thrive with the ball in their hands and both want to be the alpha dog. On the other hand, they are both unselfish players (both averaged over 6 assists per game despite minimal help to pass to) that can learn to play together. It may take some time, but these guys are too good not to figure it out eventually. If they truly want to win titles then they need to sacrifice some of their own stats. To find an example of three star players compromising their own personal stats in favor of the team's goals they need only to look back two years to when the Celtics big three won the title.
Minnesota
Grade: C-
The Wolves apparently liked what they saw out of Darko Milicic after they traded for him last season, but 4 years $20 million is too much. The former #2 overall pick (who was drafted ahead of Carmelo Anthony, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh) has proven to be a bust compared to others in his draft class, but he still holds value as a defender, which is something the Wolves desperatly needed. It's unclear who they were competing against for Milicic though, so they likely could have gotten him for less, but apparently were not willing to take that risk.
Al Jefferson and Kevin Love have shown that their lack of defensive ability makes them impossible to play together, so it was clear that Jefferson had become expendable. It appears they will be sending him to Utah in exchange for two first round draft picks (one of which Utah had received from Memphis). While one of those draft picks could end up being a lottery pick, it still seems that they should have gotten more than draft picks and salary relief for a player that was supposed to be their franchise player after they traded Kevin Garnett for him 3 years ago. Big Al is still not completely healthy from a knee injury he sustained 2 seasons ago, so it's clear they sold him while his value was still low.
I do like the move they made with Miami to trade for Michael Beasley. He is another former #2 overall pick that has yet to live up to expectations, but he's still only 21 years old and showed glimpses of his potential. Maybe living in Minnesota will provide less opportunities for him to get in trouble off the court. If he can focus on his game on the court then he still has a lot of upside, and it only cost them a second round pick.
Adding Luke Ridnour to a four year deal was a curious move. The team is already overloaded with point guards, so adding another isn't likely to entice Ricky Rubio to return from Europe to join that log jam. They are looking to trade Ramon Sessions, but with Jonny Flynn still on the roster it could still be a crowded backcourt if Rubio ever joins. The success of this signing may be determined on what they are able to acquire for Sessions. It may also be a sign that they don't expect Rubio to ever want to join them, which means he may become a trade candidate as well.
New Jersey
Grade: C-
Their new Russian billionaire owner was looking to make a big splash in his debut season and came away empty handed. LeBron was their plan A of course, but plan B, C, D and E also fell through. If they couldn't get one of the top free agents then they would have loved to get David Lee, because it at least would allow them to steal some fans from the Knicks by signing their former fan favorite All-Star. Unfortunately he went to Golden State in a sign and trade, so once again NJ missed out.
Their biggest offseason acquisition has been Travis Outlaw. He's a nice young role player, but probably not worth the 5 year $35 million he received. They also received sharpshooter Anthony Morrow in a sign and trade with Golden State.
They still have a nice young core to build around, with Devin Harris, Brook Lopez and Derrick Favors. They didn't unnecessarily blow all their cap space for the sake of using it up, so they can still be in the running for free agents next year, especially since they will be another year closer to moving to Brooklyn, which will make them a much more attractive destination.
New York
Grade: B+
The Knicks had been looking forward to this offseason more than anyone. They started tanking over two years ago by shedding salary and sacrificing draft picks to put them in position to get LeBron James, but despite being one of the leading contenders to acquire him, they ended up being one of the many teams that were left disappointed. That didn't stop them from making a splash in the free agent market though. They still managed to sign Amare Stoudamire to a 5 year $100 million deal. That seems like a lot of money for a guy with multiple injury concerns that has often been questioned for his lack of intensity on defense and rebounding, but the Knicks were desperate to spend their money on something big this offseason. They had been promising their fans for too long that there was a light at the end of the tunnel and they couldn't disappoint them by doing nothing. Stoudamire is an offensive force, who had his best seasons playing for Mike D'Antoni (who now happens to coach the Knicks), but with Phoenix he had Steve Nash delivering him the ball. New York lacks a point guard capable of getting the best out of Stoudamire, at least for now. The hope is that he'll be able to draw other stars to join him in NY. When he signed with NY he made it known that his intentions were to lure Carmelo Anthony and Tony Parker to join him next year.
The irony is that for as good as Stoudamire can be, he may not be much of an upgrade over the guy he replaced - David Lee. Stoudamire is a more explosive offensive player, but he can't create for himself as well as Lee and doesn't rebound nearly as well. He's a flashier name, but may not give them more production.
Despite having the cap room for another free agent signing, the Knicks decided to let Lee go, knowing that a pairing of him and Stoudamire in the front court would be a nightmare on defense that wouldn't be able to stop anybody. They just don't fit well together. But instead of letting him go for nothing they managed to do a sign and trade with Golden State that brought them back some nice assets. Anthony Randolph is a young promising athletic player that was never utilized correctly in Golden State. They may have given up on him too early and he could become a good player. Ronnie Turiaf gives them some defensive muscle to help in the frontcourt, and Kelenna Azubuike is a versatile wingman that can be useful off the bench.
Phoneix
Grade: C-
For a team that just made it to the Western Conference Finals, the Suns have undergone a pretty big makeover this offseason. Their biggest loss was letting Amare Stoudamire leave, without even working out a sign and trade that could have brought them back something in return (such as David Lee?). They at least could have gotten some future draft picks and a large trade exception. Having GM Steve Kerr resign at the start of the offseason, leaving owner Robert Sarvar to handle the team himself, has really hurt the Suns.
Channing Frye was due for a raise after he proved useful as a big man that can stretch the floor, but overpaying for Hakim Warrick seemed odd, especially since it happened before Stoudamire had made a decision on where he would sign.
The Suns just traded a 2nd round pick to the Hawks for Josh Childress. It will be interesting to see how Childress adapts to the NBA game after taking a brief hiatus to play in Europe, but there isn't much risk with this move, thanks to the Hawks being unable to afford to keep him.
They also traded for Hedo Turkoglu, who is coming of a disappointing season and is signed to a big contract for 4 more years. It was reported that he waived a $5 million trade bonus and will accept less guaranteed money in the final year of the contract in order to facilitate the trade, but it's still a risky investment for a declining player that has proved to be most effective in a system where he can play a "point-forward" role. Unfortunately the Suns already have a guy that does pretty well bringing the ball up.
It seems like after letting one of their best players walk away they ended up spending a lot of money on a bunch of role players without having another star around to help Nash carry the team. This could make things difficult for them to start rebuilding once Nash eventually retires, assuming Nash doesn't get frustrated by these offseason moves and demand a trade. That's unlikely given his nature and loyalty, but it would be hard to blame him if he did.
Toronto
Grade: B-
It's hard to downgrade their offseason much for losing Chris Bosh, since they essentially had no chance at keeping him. Even if he hadn't been able to join the Super Friends in Miami, Bosh had plenty of good options available and likely never gave much serious consideration to staying in Toronto. They were able to recover some draft picks for him by agreeing to a sign and trade in Miami, which includes their own 2011 draft pick that was sent to Miami in a previous trade and will likely be a top lottery pick, as well as get a large trade exemption.
Perhaps the best part of their offseason was finding a taker for Hedo Turkoglu's massive contract. He never fit in well with that team and was miserable there. It's time for Toronto to rebuild, which means there is no need for a high priced underachieving veteran to be locked up for multiple years on a losing team.
Utah
Grade: B-
Utah seemed content to let Carlos Boozer walk away, knowing that his replacement, Paul Milsap, was capable of putting up similar numbers at a cheaper price. With the uncertainty of Mehmet Okur's recovery from an injured Achilles, Boozer's departure left the Jazz without much depth in the front court. To rectify this they sent two first round draft picks to Minnesota for Al Jefferson. They were able to absorb Jefferson's $13 million contract without giving up any players because of the cap exception created in the sign and trade with Chicago for Boozer. So they essentially swapped Boozer and two draft picks for Jefferson and a 2nd round pick from Chicago.
Boozer is a risk as a long term investment, so it's not hard to see why they were willing to let him go, but Jefferson is still not fully recovered from a serious knee injury. If he's not 100% then he's a downgrade from Boozer. If they knew Boozer was going to get away from them then Jefferson isn't a bad back up plan considering it only cost them draft picks, and if he's healthy he's a potential All-Star player, but it's not without risk.
The Jazz also lost Kyle Korver, who signed with Chicago. They don't have a lot of room to sign a replacement shooter.
This article will continue to be updated throughout the offseason, as more signings and trades seem to be happening almost every day. Stay tuned.
Friday, July 9, 2010
The Decision
That sound you heard last night was the sound of the city of Cleveland imploding. The sound of hearts breaking and the cries of long suffering fans that had just been betrayed by their hometown hero. It wasn't just that he did it, it's how he did it. LeBron James made his announcement to join the Miami Heat during a much publicized and hyped National television show on ESPN. No other professional athlete has ever made such a spectacle of their free agency decision, so it's hard not to blame Cleveland fans for feeling like he was throwing it in their faces. While this was certainly not James' intention, his actions have cut deeply. For a city that has a long history of gut-wrenching defeats, dark memories such as "The Drive", "The Shot" and "The Move" have all been overshadowed by "The Decision."
Moments after James made his announcement the streets of Cleveland erupted with emotional fans filled with disappointment. James' old #23 jersey was seen being burned in the streets while fans mourned the loss of their former hero. The live camera shot shown on ESPN last night right after LeBron made his announcement was absolutely brutal.
The fans weren't the only ones to express their displeasure in the decision. Cavs owner Dan Gilbert wasn't shy about showing his anger towards his former superstar. In a letter to the fans, Gilbert called LeBron's decision "cowardly" and "shameful." He even claimed that LeBron quit on his team during the playoffs, something that never would have even been hinted at until after it became official that he was leaving. "Watch the tape," Gilbert proclaimed, referring to the blowout Game 5 of the series against the Celtics, as well as the deciding game against Orlando the previous year. He made it clear that the former self-proclaimed King had betrayed them all, but that he would soon regret this decision. He went as far as to guarantee that the Cavs would win an NBA title before LeBron wins one, stating that the Cleveland Curse would come back to haunt him.
The Decision is undoubtedly the hardest decision LeBron has been forced to make in his life. Loyalty is important to him, but so is winning. The bottom line is that Miami presents him with a greater opportunity to win multiple titles than Cleveland does. Cleveland fans have every reason to resent his betrayal, but for the rest of us we should praise the fact that he has done something that many athletes never do - put winning ahead of money. Cleveland could have offered him the most money, including a 6th year with larger annual increases. Not only is LeBron willing to settle for a 5 year deal with 5% annual increases instead of 8%, but he has stated that he, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh have agreed to take less than the max in order to team up, while still allowing a little left over to help fill out the roster.
The league has never before seen three of it's best players all agree to join forces together as free agents. The three of them are attempting to do something that is almost unprecedented in sports, to put aside egos and pass on max contracts to create something special, unlike anything we've ever seen. The closest example from recent years that we've seen is when the Big Three of the Celtics were put together to win a title in 2008, but that trio was put together through multiple trades that landed them Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett to join Paul Pierce in Boston. None of them arrived as free agents. Their situation also differs in that those three have already begun the downside of their career. They joined forces in an attempt to win a title knowing that they had a short window of opportunity to get it done. The trio in Miami are all in their prime, each of them having been drafted in 2003 as the #1, #4 and #5 picks overall. They have the potential to form a dynasty that could make them contenders for most of this decade.
You can't blame LeBron for wanting to take a chance at this once in a lifetime opportunity. All the talk about LeBron fleeing to join "Wade's Team" and that his legacy will be tarnished by his admission that he needs help is preposterous. One superstar can't do it alone, no matter how great they are. Kobe had Shaq for his first three titles and couldn't win another until the Lakers acquired Pau Gasol. Magic had Kareem and Worthy, Jordan had Pippen, Bird had McHale and Parish. LeBron has never had another star player to play with and now he has two.
Staying in Cleveland would have made him loyal, but it would not have made him a winner. Despite their owner's claims, they just don't have the right pieces to put around LeBron to push them over the top. This was made clear when the Cavs were shockingly eliminated in the second round of last years playoffs by the Celtics. Give the Cavs credit for trying, by bringing in players like Shaq and trading for Antawn Jameson to try to bolster LeBron's supporting cast to help win a title and entice him to stay. Unfortunately those moves also bloated the team's cap space, limiting their options for making improvements to a roster that was not able to get the job done.
Cleveland may never be able to forgive LeBron for leaving them without giving them a title, but LeBron may never have forgiven himself if he stayed with a team that never won. The suffering in Cleveland will continue, as their best chance at ending the championship draught that has plagued them since the Browns won in 1964 just walked away. You can't blame the man for jumping from a sinking ship to run for greener pastures. You don't have to like the public way he went about showcasing his announcement, but leaving Cleveland was the right decision.
Moments after James made his announcement the streets of Cleveland erupted with emotional fans filled with disappointment. James' old #23 jersey was seen being burned in the streets while fans mourned the loss of their former hero. The live camera shot shown on ESPN last night right after LeBron made his announcement was absolutely brutal.
The fans weren't the only ones to express their displeasure in the decision. Cavs owner Dan Gilbert wasn't shy about showing his anger towards his former superstar. In a letter to the fans, Gilbert called LeBron's decision "cowardly" and "shameful." He even claimed that LeBron quit on his team during the playoffs, something that never would have even been hinted at until after it became official that he was leaving. "Watch the tape," Gilbert proclaimed, referring to the blowout Game 5 of the series against the Celtics, as well as the deciding game against Orlando the previous year. He made it clear that the former self-proclaimed King had betrayed them all, but that he would soon regret this decision. He went as far as to guarantee that the Cavs would win an NBA title before LeBron wins one, stating that the Cleveland Curse would come back to haunt him.
The Decision is undoubtedly the hardest decision LeBron has been forced to make in his life. Loyalty is important to him, but so is winning. The bottom line is that Miami presents him with a greater opportunity to win multiple titles than Cleveland does. Cleveland fans have every reason to resent his betrayal, but for the rest of us we should praise the fact that he has done something that many athletes never do - put winning ahead of money. Cleveland could have offered him the most money, including a 6th year with larger annual increases. Not only is LeBron willing to settle for a 5 year deal with 5% annual increases instead of 8%, but he has stated that he, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh have agreed to take less than the max in order to team up, while still allowing a little left over to help fill out the roster.
The league has never before seen three of it's best players all agree to join forces together as free agents. The three of them are attempting to do something that is almost unprecedented in sports, to put aside egos and pass on max contracts to create something special, unlike anything we've ever seen. The closest example from recent years that we've seen is when the Big Three of the Celtics were put together to win a title in 2008, but that trio was put together through multiple trades that landed them Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett to join Paul Pierce in Boston. None of them arrived as free agents. Their situation also differs in that those three have already begun the downside of their career. They joined forces in an attempt to win a title knowing that they had a short window of opportunity to get it done. The trio in Miami are all in their prime, each of them having been drafted in 2003 as the #1, #4 and #5 picks overall. They have the potential to form a dynasty that could make them contenders for most of this decade.
You can't blame LeBron for wanting to take a chance at this once in a lifetime opportunity. All the talk about LeBron fleeing to join "Wade's Team" and that his legacy will be tarnished by his admission that he needs help is preposterous. One superstar can't do it alone, no matter how great they are. Kobe had Shaq for his first three titles and couldn't win another until the Lakers acquired Pau Gasol. Magic had Kareem and Worthy, Jordan had Pippen, Bird had McHale and Parish. LeBron has never had another star player to play with and now he has two.
Staying in Cleveland would have made him loyal, but it would not have made him a winner. Despite their owner's claims, they just don't have the right pieces to put around LeBron to push them over the top. This was made clear when the Cavs were shockingly eliminated in the second round of last years playoffs by the Celtics. Give the Cavs credit for trying, by bringing in players like Shaq and trading for Antawn Jameson to try to bolster LeBron's supporting cast to help win a title and entice him to stay. Unfortunately those moves also bloated the team's cap space, limiting their options for making improvements to a roster that was not able to get the job done.
Cleveland may never be able to forgive LeBron for leaving them without giving them a title, but LeBron may never have forgiven himself if he stayed with a team that never won. The suffering in Cleveland will continue, as their best chance at ending the championship draught that has plagued them since the Browns won in 1964 just walked away. You can't blame the man for jumping from a sinking ship to run for greener pastures. You don't have to like the public way he went about showcasing his announcement, but leaving Cleveland was the right decision.
Friday, July 2, 2010
Walking Wounded
Q: What has two feet, one hip, one knee, one thumb, one elbow, a back and 8 ribs?
A: The Red Sox Disabled List!
The roster of the Boston Red Sox is beginning to look more like a M.A.S.H. unit as injuries continue to pile up. Last weekend's trip through San Francisco cost us three key players as Dustin Pedroia and Victor Martinez hit the DL while Clay Buchholz left his start after only one inning with a hyperextended knee suffered while running the bases (thanks Interleague play!).
Adding to those injuries, we found out this week that Manny Delcarman is going on the DL with a strained forearm and Jason Varitek will miss up to 6 weeks with a broken foot. The team recently made a move to acquire Kevin Cash from Houston due to the injuries at the Catcher position. That's quite a down grade from V-Mart, and even a downgrade from Tek, who had been playing well in limited time. Not having to carry such a heavy load this year behind the plate had been doing wonders for the Captain's offensive production. At least now he'll be plenty rested for the stretch run. Martinez should return in a couple weeks from a fractured thumb and the downtime should also help him recover from various other bumps and bruises that he's piled up lately. In the meantime the team is left pretty weak at that position.
Injuries have been a problem all season for the Red Sox. The Outfield has been a mess, particularly with speedy star Jacoby Ellsbury missing most of the season with broken ribs. He attempted to make a brief comeback several weeks ago before shutting it back down again. Jeremy Hermida is also sidelined with broken ribs, the result of which came in similar fashion to how Ellsbury was injured - by colliding with Adrian Beltre. It's such an odd fluke that when J.D. Drew was forced out of the lineup with a stiff neck the media joked "where was Beltre?" when Drew suffered the injury. Speaking of Drew, he has a history of missing handfuls of games throughout the season due to various injuries, and this season has been no different. Add in that Mike Cameron missed a big chunk of the season with an abdominal injury and it's no wonder that the Sox have played so many games with an outfield consisting of players like Darnell McDonald, Daniel Nava and Josh Reddick.
The starting rotation has pitched pretty well after a slow start, but it hasn't been immune to the injury bug either. Josh Beckett has been out of action with back spasms and hopes to return by the end of the month. Dice-K has already been on the DL after starting the season there and just finished his second stint where he sat out two weeks after being pulled from a start at the last minute, forcing the team to use their bullpen for the entire game.
Perhaps the most devastating injury thus far has been to Dustin Pedroia. The day after he went 5 for 5 with 3 Home Runs, Pedroia fouled a ball off his foot, causing a fracture that will take about six weeks to heal. Similar injuries have been known to linger even longer than that, but Pedroia is hopeful that hard work and determination will help get him back in the lineup as soon as possible. The Sox will likely be cautious with their former MVP, not wanting to force him too soon and potentially cause a setback that would keep him out even longer. Still, Pedroia shows his grit and dirt dog style even through injury, as it was recently reported that he spent time fielding groundballs from his knees, despite the fact that he's unable to put any weight on his foot, because he felt the need to keep his arms in shape while his foot continues to heal.
Injuries are an unfortunate aspect of the game that all teams have to deal with. While the team won't use it as an excuse because they know other teams have their own injury issues, there is no denying that the Red Sox have been hit hard by the injury bug this season. No other team in the majors has had as many missed games by their starters or had as many star players miss significant time. The Angels can make a case for having lost arguably their best offensive weapon in Kendry Morales for the season, while the Yankees have had to deal with injuries from Jorge Posada and Nick Johnson, but neither team can match the injuries the Sox have suffered in terms of quantity or quality (of the players, not the quality of the injury).
The emphasis this offseason was on pitching and defense. The pitching has been decent enough so far. Jon Lester recovered from a rough start to put himself in the Cy Young race while Buchholz has made a major jump from a prospect with potential to a bonafide All-Star caliber pitcher. John Lackey has been a bit of a disappointment so far looking at his numbers, but he has 9 wins, which is tied for the third most in the league. As for the defense, that grade remains incomplete. Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia have been as impressive as we have come to expect from them. We have seen Adrian Beltre flash the leather and make some great plays and Marco Scutarro has at least held his own. The infield defense has not been the problem, but injuries to the outfield have really cost them in the defensive rankings. A starting outfield of Ellsbury, Cameron and Drew looked great on paper, but unfortunately the trio have rarely had the opportunity to play together. Their replacements, while filling in admirably given the circumstances, are a downgrade on the defensive end.
It's amazing how the Red Sox have continued to persevere through all these injuries. As it stands today, they are in second place in the AL East, only 1.5 games behind the Yankees and half game ahead of the Rays, putting them right in the thick of things, just as they expected to be all along. They have been helped mostly by their offensive, which has been much better than expected, and currently lead the league and runs scored. Adrian Beltre is having an MVP caliber season, hitting a ridiculous .349 (2nd in the AL) with 12 HRs, 53 RBIs and solid defense. Kevin Youkilis is 2nd in the AL in OBP and 5th in OPS. The resurgence for David Ortiz continues, as he's in the top 10 in the AL in both Slugging and OPS. Pedroia and Martinez both got off to slow starts, but had started to heat up before injuries took them out of the lineup. They will have to rebuild some of that momentum when they eventually return and in the meantime their replacements will have to at least try to hold their own.
It's certainly possible, and perhaps even likely, that these injuries will catch up with them at some point, sending the team into a downward spiral that could take them out of the race. However, it's also just as likely that the team will continue to stay afloat, as they have been doing, long enough to get everyone healthy for the stretch run. One positive that can be said about the recent string of injuries is that it couldn't have come at a better time, with two off days this week and the All-Star break coming up soon. All those off days helps minimize the number of games these injured players will miss. Hopefully several of them will return shortly after the break. If the team is playing so well now, imagine how great they could be with a full squad firing on all cylinders.
A: The Red Sox Disabled List!
The roster of the Boston Red Sox is beginning to look more like a M.A.S.H. unit as injuries continue to pile up. Last weekend's trip through San Francisco cost us three key players as Dustin Pedroia and Victor Martinez hit the DL while Clay Buchholz left his start after only one inning with a hyperextended knee suffered while running the bases (thanks Interleague play!).
Adding to those injuries, we found out this week that Manny Delcarman is going on the DL with a strained forearm and Jason Varitek will miss up to 6 weeks with a broken foot. The team recently made a move to acquire Kevin Cash from Houston due to the injuries at the Catcher position. That's quite a down grade from V-Mart, and even a downgrade from Tek, who had been playing well in limited time. Not having to carry such a heavy load this year behind the plate had been doing wonders for the Captain's offensive production. At least now he'll be plenty rested for the stretch run. Martinez should return in a couple weeks from a fractured thumb and the downtime should also help him recover from various other bumps and bruises that he's piled up lately. In the meantime the team is left pretty weak at that position.
Injuries have been a problem all season for the Red Sox. The Outfield has been a mess, particularly with speedy star Jacoby Ellsbury missing most of the season with broken ribs. He attempted to make a brief comeback several weeks ago before shutting it back down again. Jeremy Hermida is also sidelined with broken ribs, the result of which came in similar fashion to how Ellsbury was injured - by colliding with Adrian Beltre. It's such an odd fluke that when J.D. Drew was forced out of the lineup with a stiff neck the media joked "where was Beltre?" when Drew suffered the injury. Speaking of Drew, he has a history of missing handfuls of games throughout the season due to various injuries, and this season has been no different. Add in that Mike Cameron missed a big chunk of the season with an abdominal injury and it's no wonder that the Sox have played so many games with an outfield consisting of players like Darnell McDonald, Daniel Nava and Josh Reddick.
The starting rotation has pitched pretty well after a slow start, but it hasn't been immune to the injury bug either. Josh Beckett has been out of action with back spasms and hopes to return by the end of the month. Dice-K has already been on the DL after starting the season there and just finished his second stint where he sat out two weeks after being pulled from a start at the last minute, forcing the team to use their bullpen for the entire game.
Perhaps the most devastating injury thus far has been to Dustin Pedroia. The day after he went 5 for 5 with 3 Home Runs, Pedroia fouled a ball off his foot, causing a fracture that will take about six weeks to heal. Similar injuries have been known to linger even longer than that, but Pedroia is hopeful that hard work and determination will help get him back in the lineup as soon as possible. The Sox will likely be cautious with their former MVP, not wanting to force him too soon and potentially cause a setback that would keep him out even longer. Still, Pedroia shows his grit and dirt dog style even through injury, as it was recently reported that he spent time fielding groundballs from his knees, despite the fact that he's unable to put any weight on his foot, because he felt the need to keep his arms in shape while his foot continues to heal.
Injuries are an unfortunate aspect of the game that all teams have to deal with. While the team won't use it as an excuse because they know other teams have their own injury issues, there is no denying that the Red Sox have been hit hard by the injury bug this season. No other team in the majors has had as many missed games by their starters or had as many star players miss significant time. The Angels can make a case for having lost arguably their best offensive weapon in Kendry Morales for the season, while the Yankees have had to deal with injuries from Jorge Posada and Nick Johnson, but neither team can match the injuries the Sox have suffered in terms of quantity or quality (of the players, not the quality of the injury).
The emphasis this offseason was on pitching and defense. The pitching has been decent enough so far. Jon Lester recovered from a rough start to put himself in the Cy Young race while Buchholz has made a major jump from a prospect with potential to a bonafide All-Star caliber pitcher. John Lackey has been a bit of a disappointment so far looking at his numbers, but he has 9 wins, which is tied for the third most in the league. As for the defense, that grade remains incomplete. Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia have been as impressive as we have come to expect from them. We have seen Adrian Beltre flash the leather and make some great plays and Marco Scutarro has at least held his own. The infield defense has not been the problem, but injuries to the outfield have really cost them in the defensive rankings. A starting outfield of Ellsbury, Cameron and Drew looked great on paper, but unfortunately the trio have rarely had the opportunity to play together. Their replacements, while filling in admirably given the circumstances, are a downgrade on the defensive end.
It's amazing how the Red Sox have continued to persevere through all these injuries. As it stands today, they are in second place in the AL East, only 1.5 games behind the Yankees and half game ahead of the Rays, putting them right in the thick of things, just as they expected to be all along. They have been helped mostly by their offensive, which has been much better than expected, and currently lead the league and runs scored. Adrian Beltre is having an MVP caliber season, hitting a ridiculous .349 (2nd in the AL) with 12 HRs, 53 RBIs and solid defense. Kevin Youkilis is 2nd in the AL in OBP and 5th in OPS. The resurgence for David Ortiz continues, as he's in the top 10 in the AL in both Slugging and OPS. Pedroia and Martinez both got off to slow starts, but had started to heat up before injuries took them out of the lineup. They will have to rebuild some of that momentum when they eventually return and in the meantime their replacements will have to at least try to hold their own.
It's certainly possible, and perhaps even likely, that these injuries will catch up with them at some point, sending the team into a downward spiral that could take them out of the race. However, it's also just as likely that the team will continue to stay afloat, as they have been doing, long enough to get everyone healthy for the stretch run. One positive that can be said about the recent string of injuries is that it couldn't have come at a better time, with two off days this week and the All-Star break coming up soon. All those off days helps minimize the number of games these injured players will miss. Hopefully several of them will return shortly after the break. If the team is playing so well now, imagine how great they could be with a full squad firing on all cylinders.
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