We are all Witnesses... to the end of basketball in Cleveland.
This much is certain for this season, as the Boston Celtics eliminated the Cleveland Cavaliers from the playoffs with a Game 6 win in Boston. After this season? The fate of this franchise now rests upon the decision of one man - Lebron James. He has already said that he will opt out of the final year of his contract to test the free agent market this summer and there will be no lack of suitors. New York, Chicago, Miami and New Jersey all have cap room to sign James to a max free agent deal with still plenty left over to add another big name free agent. If he has the chance to team up with Wade or Bosh, would that be enough to convince him to jump ship for another city?
Going out early in the playoffs may give Lebron the biggest reason to leave town. No superstar has ever left as a free agent the year after winning a title. If they at least made it to the Finals then Lebron could be convinced that this team is good enough to still compete. But to lose in the 2nd round? He must now be thinking that his chances at a title aren't as great in Cleveland as he thought they were.
James claims he is all about winning, and his next contract will be based upon what team gives him the best chance to win multiple championships. Before this playoff run ended it was presumed that Cleveland still had the best chance at retaining their MVP Superstar. They are the only team that can offer him a 6 year contract and can offer him the most money. He grew up in nearby Akron and playing at home where he is comfortable has always seemed important to him. He's familiar with the system and his teammates.
But can he win with this team?
It's conceivable that this year was the best shot Cleveland had of winning a title. They entered the playoffs as the top seed in the East after a dominating regular season in which Lebron was named league MVP. Cleveland is over the salary cap, which means if they bring back Lebron it will leave them with little flexibility to add to the core group that they already have. If they couldn't get out of the 2nd round this year, what would convince Lebron that they will be better next year?
Shaq will likely be gone next year. Cleveland was perhaps too adamant about sticking with him despite the fact that he never seemed like a good fit. He clogged the lane, getting in Lebron's way of driving to the hoop, which may explain why he too often settled for jump shots. He was also a liability on defense. Cleveland played much better against most teams with a small lineup featuring Varejo or Hickson at center. The reason they got Shaq was to stop Dwight Howard in the playoffs, something they could not do last year. Now they won't even have a chance to face Orlando in the playoffs.
Why exactly have there been so many cries the past couple years for Mo Williams to be an all-star? When he gets hot from deep he can be dangerous by hitting those corner threes. But he's not much more than a complimentary player. If his shot isn't falling then he's not contributing much. He's a PG that shoots better than he passes. Often times the team will rely on James to be the primary ball handler instead of Williams. This year in the playoffs we saw Williams get abused defensively, first by Rose, then by Rondo. After Rondo put up a historic 29 point, 18 rebound, 13 assist game last Sunday, which had him being mentioned along with the likes of Wilt Chamberlain and Oscar Robertson for outstanding triple-double performances in the playoffs, Cleveland had no choice but to stop letting Williams guard Rondo. It even caused James to come out and publicly state that he wanted a shot at guarding the dynamic point guard. With so many good young point guards in the league now (Rondo, Rose and John Wall could all end up in the East) it will be hard for Cleveland to compete with Williams getting burned on every play.
The Antawn Jameson experiment turned out to be a bit of a bust. The trade with Washington, in which they essentially gave up nothing to get him (Illgauskus was sent to Washington, but immediately was bought out of his contract and returned to Cleveland a month later) was supposed to put this team over the top. It gave them the stretch 4 (power forward that can shoot from outside) that they coveted to compliment their surplus of big men that like to bang inside the paint. While Jameson showed flashes of his all-star form, there were other times where he just seemed lost and out of place. His 2-10 shooting performance in the decisive Game 6 says all we really need to know about him. He can't consistently help carry a team in the playoffs. A Superstar player, even one as great as Lebron, can't do it all on his own. Jordan had Pippen, Shaq had Kobe, Bird had McHale and Parish and now the Celtics have their new Big Three. You can't have a dominant run and become a Dynasty if Jameson is your 2nd best player. Maybe he'd win one title, as he could have this year, but it's not in his best interest to stick with a team that doesn't have a bright future. No matter how good Lebron is, this supporting cast that he has is not sufficient to form a Dynasty.
We also have to factor in the improvement of other teams in the East. The Celtics are going to be older and not likely to improve, but Orlando won't be any weaker. What if James stays in Cleveland but Wade and Bosh decide to team up in Miami? That would make them instant contenders. Or maybe one of those guys goes to Chicago to team with Rose and Noah. Or New York lures in Joe Johnson and Carlos Boozer or Amare Stoudemire. If New Jersey lands the number one pick in the draft, and the rights to John Wall, would a top free agent be willing to go there to join a core that would include Wall and Brook Lopez? This summer of free agency could drastically change the playoff landscape in the Eastern Conference for the next 5-10 years. It is essential that Lebron make the right choice this summer if he wishes to stay at the top. Cleveland isn't likely to be able to improve much from what they have in the next few years, so if they couldn't get it done with this team now there is little reason to believe they will next year, or in the years to come.
There are three major factors that a free agent must consider when making a decision on where to sign: Winning, Money and Loyalty. James seems to have a little bit of each of these traits in him. This summer we will find out which one wins out.
This much is certain for this season, as the Boston Celtics eliminated the Cleveland Cavaliers from the playoffs with a Game 6 win in Boston. After this season? The fate of this franchise now rests upon the decision of one man - Lebron James. He has already said that he will opt out of the final year of his contract to test the free agent market this summer and there will be no lack of suitors. New York, Chicago, Miami and New Jersey all have cap room to sign James to a max free agent deal with still plenty left over to add another big name free agent. If he has the chance to team up with Wade or Bosh, would that be enough to convince him to jump ship for another city?
Going out early in the playoffs may give Lebron the biggest reason to leave town. No superstar has ever left as a free agent the year after winning a title. If they at least made it to the Finals then Lebron could be convinced that this team is good enough to still compete. But to lose in the 2nd round? He must now be thinking that his chances at a title aren't as great in Cleveland as he thought they were.
James claims he is all about winning, and his next contract will be based upon what team gives him the best chance to win multiple championships. Before this playoff run ended it was presumed that Cleveland still had the best chance at retaining their MVP Superstar. They are the only team that can offer him a 6 year contract and can offer him the most money. He grew up in nearby Akron and playing at home where he is comfortable has always seemed important to him. He's familiar with the system and his teammates.
But can he win with this team?
It's conceivable that this year was the best shot Cleveland had of winning a title. They entered the playoffs as the top seed in the East after a dominating regular season in which Lebron was named league MVP. Cleveland is over the salary cap, which means if they bring back Lebron it will leave them with little flexibility to add to the core group that they already have. If they couldn't get out of the 2nd round this year, what would convince Lebron that they will be better next year?
Shaq will likely be gone next year. Cleveland was perhaps too adamant about sticking with him despite the fact that he never seemed like a good fit. He clogged the lane, getting in Lebron's way of driving to the hoop, which may explain why he too often settled for jump shots. He was also a liability on defense. Cleveland played much better against most teams with a small lineup featuring Varejo or Hickson at center. The reason they got Shaq was to stop Dwight Howard in the playoffs, something they could not do last year. Now they won't even have a chance to face Orlando in the playoffs.
Why exactly have there been so many cries the past couple years for Mo Williams to be an all-star? When he gets hot from deep he can be dangerous by hitting those corner threes. But he's not much more than a complimentary player. If his shot isn't falling then he's not contributing much. He's a PG that shoots better than he passes. Often times the team will rely on James to be the primary ball handler instead of Williams. This year in the playoffs we saw Williams get abused defensively, first by Rose, then by Rondo. After Rondo put up a historic 29 point, 18 rebound, 13 assist game last Sunday, which had him being mentioned along with the likes of Wilt Chamberlain and Oscar Robertson for outstanding triple-double performances in the playoffs, Cleveland had no choice but to stop letting Williams guard Rondo. It even caused James to come out and publicly state that he wanted a shot at guarding the dynamic point guard. With so many good young point guards in the league now (Rondo, Rose and John Wall could all end up in the East) it will be hard for Cleveland to compete with Williams getting burned on every play.
The Antawn Jameson experiment turned out to be a bit of a bust. The trade with Washington, in which they essentially gave up nothing to get him (Illgauskus was sent to Washington, but immediately was bought out of his contract and returned to Cleveland a month later) was supposed to put this team over the top. It gave them the stretch 4 (power forward that can shoot from outside) that they coveted to compliment their surplus of big men that like to bang inside the paint. While Jameson showed flashes of his all-star form, there were other times where he just seemed lost and out of place. His 2-10 shooting performance in the decisive Game 6 says all we really need to know about him. He can't consistently help carry a team in the playoffs. A Superstar player, even one as great as Lebron, can't do it all on his own. Jordan had Pippen, Shaq had Kobe, Bird had McHale and Parish and now the Celtics have their new Big Three. You can't have a dominant run and become a Dynasty if Jameson is your 2nd best player. Maybe he'd win one title, as he could have this year, but it's not in his best interest to stick with a team that doesn't have a bright future. No matter how good Lebron is, this supporting cast that he has is not sufficient to form a Dynasty.
We also have to factor in the improvement of other teams in the East. The Celtics are going to be older and not likely to improve, but Orlando won't be any weaker. What if James stays in Cleveland but Wade and Bosh decide to team up in Miami? That would make them instant contenders. Or maybe one of those guys goes to Chicago to team with Rose and Noah. Or New York lures in Joe Johnson and Carlos Boozer or Amare Stoudemire. If New Jersey lands the number one pick in the draft, and the rights to John Wall, would a top free agent be willing to go there to join a core that would include Wall and Brook Lopez? This summer of free agency could drastically change the playoff landscape in the Eastern Conference for the next 5-10 years. It is essential that Lebron make the right choice this summer if he wishes to stay at the top. Cleveland isn't likely to be able to improve much from what they have in the next few years, so if they couldn't get it done with this team now there is little reason to believe they will next year, or in the years to come.
There are three major factors that a free agent must consider when making a decision on where to sign: Winning, Money and Loyalty. James seems to have a little bit of each of these traits in him. This summer we will find out which one wins out.
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