Tuesday, January 28, 2014

NBA All-Star Picks

Last week the NBA announced the results of the fan voting that selected the starters for this year's All-Star game, while the rest of the rosters will be revealed this Thursday.  The voting process always becomes a popularity contest, but the fans did a reasonable job of selecting a deserving group of starters.  With the exception of Kobe Bryant, who was selected despite playing in only six games due to injury, because.. well - he's Kobe.

Injuries have robbed the league of many familiar names, including Derrick Rose, Brook Lopez, and Al Horford.  All of these former All-Stars are likely out for the season, while Rajon Rondo's recent return from an ACL injury suffered last year prevents him from accumulating enough of a sample size to warrant consideration on on this list.

If it were up to me to pick the All-Star rosters, they would likely end up a bit differently from what the final rosters will end up being.  So here are my picks for this year's game.  Keep in mind that the requirements are for the starters to include two guards and three frontcourt players.  The reserves must include the same, along with two wild card spots that can come from any position.

Eastern Conference

Starters
G - Kyle Lowry
G - John Wall
FC - Paul George
FC - LeBron James
FC - Carmelo Anthony

Kyrie Irving was voted as a starter, but Lowry and Wall are both more deserving.  Irving has a minuscule lead in PER (20.06), but trails in most other advanced stats, including TS%, Assist Ratio and Estimated Wins Added.  He also remains a poor defender, while Wall ranks 5th in the league in steals and Lowry is the best overall defender of the three.  Lowry has flourished since Toronto jettisoned Rudy Gay to the West Coast, increasing his offense and leading a surprising Raptors squad to an unlikely Atlantic Division lead.   Wall is the leader of a steadily improving Wizards team that has hovered around the .500 mark - which sadly is enough to place them in the middle of the playoff race in the pathetic Eastern Conference.  Meanwhile, at what point do we start holding it against Irving that he's never played for a winning team?

The frontcourt selections are easy, with LeBron James leading the way with a Conference best PER (28.84)
and the other two right behind him.  If you discount the injured Brook Lopez - James, Anthony and George make up the East leaders in PER (as well as headline the All-Stars for guys with last names that could be first names!).  LeBron has been called out for coasting through the season at times this year, but that's a tribute to the high expectations we hold him too.  He's still far and away the best player in the East.  Melo was headed toward another All-Star spot even before his historic 62 point game last week.  He's second in the league in scoring (27.2 points per game) and has increased his rebounding to a career high 9.0 boards per game. George is following up his breakout season by taking another leap to Superstar status, while leading the team with the league's best record.  He's improved his scoring (8th in the league), while remaining one of the  league's better wing stoppers for an elite defense.

Thursday, January 23, 2014

Belichick's best year


Bill Belichick has won three Super Bowls in his 14-year tenure as head coach of the New England Patriots, while coaching his team to the big game on two other occasions.  This year wasn't one of them, as the Patriots fell short to the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship game.  Yet, when you factor in everything this team went through, you can't help but wonder if this may have actually been Belichick's most impressive coaching performance.

Having a Hall of Fame quarterback to run your offense certainly helps any team to be a playoff contender, but let's be clear.  As great as Tom Brady is, he can't do it alone.  Given the talent around him this season, the Patriots had no business winning 12 games, earning the AFC's second seed and making it to within one game of a sixth Super Bowl appearance.  Yet, remarkably, they did it.

It's been no secret this season that New England's offense struggled through a drastic overhaul this season. When the season kicked off back in September, Brady was missing his top five most targeted receivers from last season!  Try finding another team whose quarterback ever had to deal with that.  Danny Woodhead fled to San Diego in free agency, leaving Shane Vereen to take his place.  The third year RB missed half the season with injury, yet still managed 47 catches in only 8 games.  Brandon Lloyd was cut after one mildly disappointing season and decided to retire rather than return at a discounted rate.

Monday, January 20, 2014

Things I Noticed: Conference Championship Round

We're down to the final four teams, with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.  Which two teams will be heading to New Jersey?

Here are some things I noticed this week:

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos

  • Peyton Manning set a franchise postseason record with 32 completions on his way to throwing
    for 400 yards and 2 TDs to lead the Broncos to victory.  It was Manning's third career postseason game with 400+ yards, tying him with Drew Brees for the most ever.  
  • When these teams met in New England back in November, the Patriots prevailed in overtime, but this game was completely different.  In the regular season match up, Manning threw for only 150 yards, while relying on their running game to move the ball.  Knowshown Moreno ran for 224 yards that week, but was held to only 59 yards in this game.
  • Last time, these teams combined for 7 turnovers in the game.  This time, neither team threw an INT or lost a fumble.  New England did turn the ball over on downs once after a failed 4th down attempt, but that was the game's only turnover.
  • For the second straight season, the Patriots defense fell apart in the AFC Championship game after Aqib Talib was knocked out of the game with an injury.  Talib had been doing a respectable job shadowing Demaryius Thomas, until a collision with Wes Welker forced Talib out with a knee injury.  Without Talib, the Patriots pass defense struggled, particularly with containing Thomas, who finished with 7 catches for 134 yards and a TD.

Monday, January 13, 2014

Things I Noticed: Divisional Round

It took us four and a half months to confirm what we already suspected entering the season - that the Seahawks, Broncos, Patriots and 49ers are the league's four best teams.  With the Divisional Round now in the books, we now know that those are the four teams that will battle it out in the Conference Championships for the right to advance to the Super Bowl.

This was actually the first time since the 2004 postseason that the Divisional Round did not feature at least one underdog pulling off an upset win.  Each of the four teams that won this week entered the game considered favorites (based on the game lines set in Vegas).

Here are some things I noticed this week:

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks
  • The Seahawks overcame a quiet performance from Russell Wilson (103 passing yards) to hang on to a victory over the Saints.  Marshawn Lynch did the heavy lifting, setting a franchise postseason record by rushing for 140 yards and a pair of scores.  His second touchdown came on a 31-yard run with under three minutes to go in the 4th quarter to put the game away.
  • New Orleans made things interesting in the end when Drew Brees connected with Marques Colston with 26 seconds left make it a one possession game.  The late score proved to be more than just a stat padding effort in garbage time, as the Saints followed it up by recovering an on-side kick to give themselves a chance.  The game would end after Colston caught a 13-yard pass along the side line. Instead of stepping out of bounds to stop the clock to give his team one last shot at the end zone from Seattle's 38 yard line, Colston tried to throw a cross field lateral to an open teammate.  Except the pass went forward, which triggered a penalty for an illegal forward pass.  That penalty came with a 10 second run off, which ended the game.  Poor decision making by Colston and even poorer execution. 

Monday, January 6, 2014

Things I Noticed: Wild Card Round

It was a wild weekend in the Wild Card round to open the postseason.  Three road teams advanced to the next round, including two #6 seeds.  Three of the four games came down to a one possession game, with two of them ending on last second field goals.

Here are some things I noticed this week:

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts
  • Andrew Luck (443 yards, 4 TDs) overcame three turnovers to lead another miraculous comeback.
    The Colts 28-point comeback is the second largest comeback in postseason history.  In only his second season in the league, Luck already has eleven 4th quarter or overtime comeback victories, which is more than any other QB in the league over the last two seasons.
  • T.Y. Hilton set a franchise postseason record with 13 catches for 224 yards and 2 TDs.  His second came when he burned his coverage for a 64-yard game winning TD with just over four minutes left in the game.  It was the first time the Colts had led all game, but it was a lead they would not relinquish.
    • Hilton did a lot of his damage after cornerback Brandon Flowers was knocked out of the game with a concussion.  The absence of one of the Chiefs top defensive players helped fuel the Colts comeback.