The NFL kicks off its regular season this week, with the defending champions Packers hosting the Saints on Thursday night. There is no crystal ball to predict how the season will play out. Some teams will exceed expectations while others will disappoint. A lot can change between now and the end of the season, but based on what we know now, here is how I rank each team in the league.
32. Buffalo Bills
Last season: 4-12
Prediction this season: 2-14
The woeful Bills have been struggling to rebuild for years. Despite having strung together years of poor performances, they haven't been quite bad enough to land a top pick that they could use on a franchise QB. They've been forced to try to get by with below average options at the game's most important position. Until they find the right player to build around they will be doomed to mediocrity at best. This could be the year that they tank in hopes of finally putting themselves in position to draft the most coveted QB in next year's draft. It's time for the Bills to "suck for Luck."
31. Cincinnati Bengals
Last season: 4-12
Prediction this season: 3-13
This was a bad team that only got worse with the loss of some key veterans. When once elite QB Carson Palmer demanded a trade, threatening to retire rather than spend another year playing for the Bungals, General Manager Mike Brown stubbornly refused to give in to his demands. Great, so he stuck to his guns and refused to let a player hold the franchise hostage, but in doing so he cost himself a chance to trade Palmer for valuable draft picks for their rebuilding process. They will start the season with rookie QB Andy Dalton, who can't possibly be close to ready to be an NFL starter after a lockout shortened off-season, for an offense missing it's two top targets from last season (Ochocinco was traded to the Patriots and T.O. is slowly recovering from off-season surgery). They also lost their best defensive player, CB Jonathan Joseph, to free agency. Hmm, maybe predicting 3 wins was too generous.
30. Washington Redskins
Last season: 6-10
Prediction this season: 4-12
How Daniel Snyder is still allowed to own an NFL team is beyond me. His solution of throwing money at a problem has never worked for him in the past, yet he never learns. After signing Albert Haynseworth to a $100 Million deal, he was forced to give up on the disgruntled defensive lineman after two disappointing seasons and received only a future 5th round draft pick in return. Then he traded a 2nd and 4th round draft pick for Donovan McNabb last year, only to allow the team to misuse him and destroy his value, so that they only managed to get a couple of 6th round picks in return for him. They now have little to show for all they invested in high priced veterans and have the displeasure of watching a QB battle between Rex Grossman and John Beck play out over another losing season.
29. Carolina Panthers
Last season: 2-14
Prediction this season: 4-12
The Panthers probably weren't quite as bad as their record last year shows, as they were victimized by a string of injuries to their stable of talented running backs and inconsistent QB play. Better health from DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart will help. Cam Newton won't immediately make them a much better team, but he's a step in the right direction. Overpaying to keep together a core of players from a losing team may not prove to be the best investment, but they can't get much worse. There's nowhere to go but up for this team.
28. Denver Broncos
Last season: 4-12
Prediction this season: 5-11
The disastrous reign of Josh McDaniels still has the Broncos in a deep hole, but bringing in someone with the experience of John Fox to stabilize the situation should help. It will be interesting to see if the new coaching staff sees Tim Tebow as a franchise QB. They have already given the starting job to Kyle Orton, which is the right move for them to win now, but not necessarily right for Tebow's development. They need to figure out their future plans at the position before this team can take another step forward.
27. Seattle Seahawks
Last season: 7-9
Prediction this season: 6-10
They shocked the world last season on their way to the divisional playoff round last season. Shocking not just because they upset the Saints in the first round, but more so that the NFL actually allowed a team with a losing record to host a playoff game. How did that debacle not lead to a change in the playoff format? It won't take much to knock them out of playoff contention, and replacing veteran QB Matt Hasselbeck with Tavarias Jackson could drop them to the bottom of a bad division.
26. San Francisco 49ers
Last season: 6-10
Prediction this season: 6-10
Alex Smith is still their QB, so there's only so high they can go. Their defense underperformed last year, but is talented enough to expect a bit of a bounce back season. It'd be nice if Michael Crabtree could show us some of the talent that he felt warranted a hold out in his rookie season. If Frank Gore can stay healthy for a full season then he'll have enough of an impact to prevent the 49ers from finishing last in their division.
25. Cleveland Browns
Last season: 5-11
Prediction this season: 6-10
A puzzling team, that seemed to play well against their tougher competition, but play down to weaker opponents. Payton Hillis had a monster break out season a year ago, but the way he broke down at the end of the year suggests they won't be able to lean on him quite as much this time. They are slowly improving, but young QB Colt McCoy needs more seasoning before he can take this team much further.
24. Oakland Raiders
Last season: 8-8
Prediction this season: 7-9
Of course the Raiders would rise up to a solid .500 season the year the Patriots owned their first round draft pick. Now it's back to another losing season in Oakland. Losing Asomugha to free agency is a big hit to their pass defense, as it opens up that whole side of the field that the star CB once shut down for them. They need to hope that Darren McFadden can stay healthy enough to carry the offense, which he's never done for a full season. The Raiders are also one of those teams most impacted by the new kick off rules, as speedy young weapon Jacoby Ford will have less chances to run one back, while Sebastian Janikowski's powerful leg is negated by the fact that it's now much easier for anyone to kick one out of the endzone for a touchback.
23. Jacksonville Jaguars
Last season: 8-8
Prediction this season: 7-9
The Jags are hard to predict, in part because of the uncertainty of Maurice Jones-Drew's return from off-season knee surgery. They nearly snuck into the playoffs last year, led by the always underrated David Garrard, and in a weak division they could find a way to make it in this year. Then again, I could just as easily see them getting off to a rough start and turning things over to Blaine Gabbert to stagger to a 5 or 6 win season. The team recently released Garrard and announced days before the season opener that Luke McCown will begin the year as the starting QB. That's not a good sign. The good news for the Jags is that even if they don't win, at least nobody will be watching anyway.
22. Arizona Cardinals
Last season: 5-11
Prediction this season: 7-9
There is some debate over whether Kevin Kolb is really the answer, but he certainly can't be any worse than the options they cycled through last year. Larry Fizgerald is an elite target that can help (almost) any QB look good. The problem could be with their running game, as Beanie Wells has yet to prove himself as a capable workhorse back. They traded away Tim Hightower, and his rookie replacement, Ryan Williams, was lost to a season ending injury. They were already a team that ran the ball less than anyone in the league and that's not likely to change. Is Kolb up for the challenge, or will he face the harsh reality that running the offense in the desert isn't the same as they system he was used to in Philadelphia? He has talent, but his inconsistent play in a small sample size of games makes that too big of a question mark to make them a favorite in their division.
21. Miami Dolphins
Last season: 7-9
Prediction this season: 8-8
They replaced their aging backfield with a duo of rookie Daniel Thomas and the flashy (yet overrated) Reggie Bush. Thomas has disappointed in the pre-season and Bush is more dangerous as a receiver and not likely to be counted on to carry the load. Plus, their QB is still Chad Henne. They still have some elite players, like WR Brandon Marshall, LT Jake Long and LB Cameron Wake, which gives them some hope. Playing in the same division as the Patriots and Jets though puts a damper on any expectations of winning the AFC East.
20. Minnesota Vikings
Last season: 6-10
Prediction this season: 8-8
Brett Favre is really gone, right? Are we sure? As far as we know, yes. Unfortunately, he's been replaced by another past his prime veteran. Can Donovan McNabb make a comeback to prove the Redskins were just too dysfunctional for him to thrive in? If not, then Adrian Peterson can expect to see a lot of guys stacked in the box looking to stop him. He may be the leagues best RB, but even he needs some help once in a while. The loss of Sydney Rice leaves them without a primary receiving threat, but McNabb is used to that from his early days in Philly. He'll find ways to spread it around and use explosive weapons like Percy Harvin.
19. Tennessee Titans
Last season: 6-10
Prediction this season: 8-8
The Titans record may have been misleading last year, as they actually had a positive point differential, which would suggest a winning record. The debacle of how the Vince Young/Jeff Fisher drama was handled certainly didn't help. Now they've moved on with a new QB and new coach. Hasselback should provide some more stability at the position, but he has less upside than Young and is clearly just keeping the spot warm for Jake Locker. Chris Johnson is their primary weapon on offense, but after a lengthy hold out that was only recently resolved, it may take him some time to get back up to speed with the new system. A slow start from him would inevitably lead to a slow start for the Titans. Their division is wide open, so as long as they don't dig themselves too deep of an early hole then they have a shot to climb to the top by the end of the season.
18. Chicago Bears
Last season: 11-5
Prediction this season: 8-8
Despite making a run to the NFC Championship game last season, the Bears just aren't as good as last year's record made them seem. 10 of their games were decided by 7 points or less, and they were fortunate enough to win most of those close games, where one possession could have turned around the outcome. One of those games was the win over the Lions, where a potential game winning TD catch by Calvin Johnson was wrongfully overturned. They still have a defense to be feared, but I don't have much hope for a team led by the mistake prone Jay Cutler to repeat last year's success. When their biggest off-season acquisition is Roy Williams, it's hard to see how they could improve. Meanwhile, a presumably healthier Packers team is poised to take back the division title.
17. Kansas City Chiefs
Last season: 10-6
Prediction this season: 9-7
The Chiefs were one of the surprise teams from last season, jumping into the playoffs thanks to a cupcake schedule. Their path should be much harder this time. Matt Cassell will be hard pressed to sustain such a low interception rate and is already dealing with injured ribs that could keep him out of at least the first week of action. Once he's back, the offense should still be fine, but they need to give more carries to Jamaal Charles. He's clearly their best offensive weapon, but they had an annoying habit last year of giving carries to Thomas Jones at the expense of JC. I can see their concern about a RB with a small frame like JC not holding up to a heavy workload, but a 50/50 split isn't going to cut it. It needs to be more like 70/30.
16. St. Louis Rams
Last season: 7-9
Prediction this season: 9-7
Somebody has to win the NFC West, and this time they damn well better have a winning record! If anyone in that division can do it then I'll bet on the team with the young franchise QB. Sam Bradford looks like the real deal, and with some added weapons to work with this year he should be able to take this team up a level. Josh McDaniels was a miserable failure as a head coach in Denver, but he's still an offensive whiz and will help this team as their new coordinator. If he could make Matt Cassell and Kyle Orton look like stars, imagine what he could do with a young talent like Bradford.
15. New York Giants
Last season: 10-6
Prediction this season: 9-7
Big Blue is already off to a rough start on the injury front, especially in their secondary. Osi Umenyiora had an ugly hold out which was resolved just in time for him to suffer an injury as well. Luckily for them, they have a fairly easy early schedule, aside from a road game in Philly, so the injuries may not force them into too deep of an early hole. They had better hope not, because after their bye week they finish up with 7 of their final 9 games against potential playoff teams. Eli Manning will likely improve his interception rate, bringing down last year's league leading total of 25 picks, but he'll have to drastically improve there in order to help make up for the struggles they may have in the early going due to the injuries on the defensive end.
14. Detroit Lions
Last season: 6-10
Prediction this season: 9-7
This is the sleeper team that everyone seems to love, and it's not hard to see why. We're still waiting for Matthew Stafford's breakout season, and with a target with the talent of Calvin Johnson, this could be the year. Ndamukong Suh brings some attitude to the defense, along with elite passing rushing skills. This team is loaded with exciting young talent, enough so to make many believe they may be ready to make a big jump to playoff contention. If they can put it all together this year then they have the talent to do it. On the other hand, Stafford has never proven he can stay healthy and play consistently well yet in his career. Johnson and RB Jhavid Best also have a history of nagging injuries that could strike again. Plus, you never know when Suh could get himself suspended for decapitating a QB. A lot has to go right for them to make that jump, and there are too many things that are more likely to go wrong to put them any higher... for now.
13. Tampa Bay Bucs
Last season: 10-6
Prediction this season: 9-7
The young Bucs were one of last year's surprise teams, nearly making the playoffs behind a breakout season for second year QB Josh Freeman. However, a closer look reveals that an easy schedule may have padded their win total. They got to beat up on the woeful NFC West teams in addition to their division rival Panthers. They failed to win a game against a team with a winning record until their week 17 victory over a Saints team that had nothing to play for. This team still has a lot of good young talent, so I'm not expecting too much of a drop off, but a tougher schedule, and the fact that they still share a division with the Saints and Falcons, makes it hard to believe they'll be able to improve on last year's success.
12. Indianapolis Colts
Last season: 10-6
Prediction this season: 9-7
The Colts are the most difficult team to predict thanks to questions surrounding the health of Peyton Manning. He's still recovering from off-season neck surgery and at the moment it appears doubtful that he'll be ready to start the season. How much time Manning may miss is the big question mark hanging over this team. The Colts talked veteran Kerry Collins out of retirement to fill in if Manning is out of action, but that's still a pretty drastic downgrade. How this team will play without the former MVP on the field is difficult to predict, because Manning has never missed a game in his career before. If he were healthy to start the season then we could likely pencil this team in for double digit wins and another division title. Without him, they probably aren't close to being a playoff team. How many games Manning is able to suit up for will determine which end of that spectrum they finish up at. Assuming he misses no more than a few games, the Colts will probably rally around his return and finish strong enough to stay in the hunt. A slow start could cost them the division, but if Manning plays most of the season they should be in the mix for at least a Wild Card spot.
11. Dallas Cowboys
Last season: 6-10
Prediction this season: 10-6
Last season's disaster included losing their starting QB for most of the season and firing their head coach mid-season. Now Tony Romo is back on the field and the coaching situation should be more stable this season. The offense is loaded with weapons, with Miles Austin and Dez Bryant each looking like either of them could become one of the game's top receivers. Add in TE Jason Witten, always a favorite target of Romo's, and a potential breakout season for RB Felix Jones, and you have the makings of an explosive offense. A lot was expected from them last season before injuries crippled them, but they'll have a chance to make up for it this year. Expect them to flip last year's record around and be a winning team this year with a shot at getting back to the postseason.
10. Houston Texans
Last season: 6-10
Prediction this season: 10-6
They seem to be the team that everyone expects to breakout every year and finally make the playoffs, but it never happens. If they don't do it this year then people may start to give up on them, but there are too many reasons to believe in them this season. For starters, the Manning injury makes the AFC South division wide open and the Texans seem to be the best equipped team in the division to take over should the Colts stumble. Typically known as a dominant passing attack led by Matt Schuab and elite WR Andre Johnson, the Texans added a new dimension to their offense last year thanks to the unexpected breakout season by Arian Foster, who led the league in rushing last year. They have enough weapons that nobody has ever questioned their offense. It's the defense that has always held them back. The secondary inparticular has been an issue, as they were the league's worst pass defense last year. That should change this year, with additions like CB Jonathan Joseph to beef up their pass protection. Former Dallas coach Wade Phillips comes in as their new defensive coordinator. While he may have failed as a head coach, he has a strong history of success in this coordinator role. He may not turn them into an elite defense overnight, but he's enough of a reason to expect enough of an improvement that this defense will no longer be a liability holding back their offense, which will still be relied on to carry the team.
9. San Diego Chargers
Last season: 9-7
Prediction this season: 10-6
The Chargers inexplicably managed to miss the playoffs last year despite having the league's top ranked offense and defense. The main reason for their struggles had to do with special teams, which was a disaster. Those concerns will be partially negated by the new kick off rule, which is intended to limit the number of kick returns. The Chargers may benefit more from this than anyone else. They still have an elite QB in Philip Rivers, who should have a full season of Vincent Jackson to throw to this year, after the star receiver sat out during a lengthy hold out last season. If Antonio Gates can stay healthier this year then this team has all the tools it needs to reclaim their division title.
8. New York Jets
Last season: 11-5
Prediction this season: 10-6
Having been big spenders in last year's uncapped season, the Jets were forced to make some difficult decisions this off-season, as they were unable to bring back everyone. Re-signing Santonio Holmes was a big move, but to do so they had to let go of Braylon Edwards. He's been replaced by Plaxico Burress, who spent the last two years in prison and is now 34 years old. Several other key contributors have also either moved on or retired, depriving the Jets of some of the depth that had made them so successful. With Antonio Cromartie back to pair with Darrelle Revis, they will still have one of the league's best pass defenses. If Mark Sanchez can take another step forward in his development then the Jets should find themselves back in the playoffs.
7. Atlanta Falcons
Last season: 13-3
Prediction this season: 11-5
The Falcons were a very good team last year, but perhaps not quite as dominant as their record would indicate. Point differential is considered a good indicator of future success. While their +126 differential last year was still very good, it paled in comparison to the league leading +205 total from the 14 win Patriots, and also ranked far behind the 12 win Steelers (+143) and even the 10 win Packers (+148). While it was still a good season, it shows they played in more close games than the other top teams. Close games decided by 1 score or less can often go either way depending on a bad bounce here or there, so without a little luck their 13 win season could have just as easily been 10 or 11 wins. They also sacrificed quite a bit to trade up to draft a rookie WR that is unlikely to perform at an elite level right away. Still, Julio Jones is talented enough to make some impact, and the team already has an elite receiver in Roddy White that Jones should compliment well. The Falcons have typically been known as more of a running team, but the added weapons to the passing game may signal a change to more of an aerial attack, as work horse back Michael Turner continues to get older and pile more mileage on his legs.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers
Last season: 12-4
Prediction this season: 11-5
Since 2000, the team that has lost the Super Bowl has gone on to struggle the following season. In 7 of those seasons since, the losing team failed to even make the playoffs the following season, with all but the 2008 Patriots finishing with a losing record that season. The other Super Bowl losers in that time span (Seahawks, Cardinals, Colts) all had a decrease in wins the season following their Super Bowl loss and none of those teams made it passed the Divisional round of the playoffs that season. If this Super Bowl "curse" is to be believed, the Steelers may be in trouble. There are some reasons to think a drop off could happen. Sticking with the subject of curses, research has shown that running backs that carry the ball more than 370 times in a season are due to regress the next season. Counting the playoffs, Rashard Mendenhall had nearly 400 carries. Will the "curse of 370" break down the running game they rely so heavily upon? The Steelers may find it hard to repeat another 12 win season, especially in a tough division, but they have too much talent to completely fall apart. They should have a full season of Ben Roethlisberger (assuming he can stay on the field and out of women's restrooms) and hopefully a healthier season from Troy Polamalu. Expect the NFC North to come down to another dog fight between the Steelers and their rivals from Baltimore.
5. Baltimore Ravens
Last season: 12-4
Prediction this season: 12-4
Baltimore's inability to get over the hump has always been due to struggles to get the better of the Steelers. If ever there was a year for them to overtake their most bitter rival, it's while the Steelers are recovering from their Super Bowl hangover. Their defense is getting older, but is still dangerous. Joe Flacco seems right on the edge of being an elite QB. Whether or not he can put together a strong season to cement his status in that class, or whether he takes a step back to being an inconsistent talent still unproven as a winner, will determine how far the Ravens will go. Expect a monster season from Ray Rice. He's already proven himself to be one of the league's most lethal rushers, in addition to one of the best pass catching threats out of the backfield. He'll now get to run behind blocking full back Vontee Leech, the man who helped block for Arian Foster during his league leading campaign last year. Rice has the talent and opportunity to lead the league this year, which only strengthens the Ravens case for winning their division.
4. New Orleans Saints
Last season: 11-5
Prediction this season: 12-4
Drew Brees has always been known for his impressive accuracy, so it was a surprise to see so many of his passes picked off last year (22 - second worst in the league). Expect that number to drop this year. He'll be helped by a revamped running game, led by rookie Mark Ingram and a healthy Pierre Thomas. Reggie Bush may be gone, but Darren Sproles was brought in to fill most of that void at a fraction of the price. The defense didn't come up with quite as many big plays last year as they did in their Super Bowl season, but if they can bounce back to play somewhere in between then that should be plenty to carry them to the top of the division.
3. Green Bay Packers
Last season: 10-6
Prediction this season: 12-4
People tend to forget, given that they went on to win the Super Bowl, but the Packers barely managed to sneak into the playoffs last season. They needed wins in their last two regular season games just to get in as a Wild Card, but managed to get on a role at the right time and carried that momentum to a title. That's not to say that the Packers aren't just an elite team, it's just to point out why the defending champs fall a bit short of the top of this list. On the other hand, they still have that Aaron Rodgers guy, so I'm sure they'll still be pretty good. They can also hope to expect healthier seasons from their running backs as well as the return of stud TE JerMichael Finley. Even Rodgers couldn't manage to make it through all 16 games. If they can get a little luckier in the health department then they have the talent to be an elite team once again.
2. Philadelphia Eagles
Last season: 10-6
Prediction this season: 13-3
Michael Vick may be the most dynamic player in the game, but also the biggest wild card. He's coming off a season where he had one of the best stastical years of any QB, despite only playing in 12 games. He had several games, most notably a thrashing of the Redskins, where he dominated the opposition, single handedly taking over games to deliver a victory. The problem is, he only played 12 games. A full season of Vick makes the Eagles Super Bowl contenders, but there are few players that carry as much risk for injury, given his fearless (perhaps reckless) style of play. His career season was helped in part by the receiving talent around him, which is much deeper and more talented than anything he had worked with before back in his days in Atlanta. With explosive playmakers like DeSean Jackson and LeSean McCoy around him, Vick doesn't need to try to do it all on his own. If he keeps that in mind, it might help keep him healthy and on the field more. As important as it is to have Vick on the field more this year, the defensive upgrades will be just as important to the Eagle's chances to move up to the top of the conference. They shocked the world by signing the biggest off-season prize, shut down corner Nnamdi Asomugha. He joins two other Pro Bowl caliber corners in Asante Samuel and Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie (who also just joined the team from Arizona as part of the Kolb trade). The trio gives them the deepest and most talented secondary in the league. They have the ability to shut down both sides of the field and still have an elite corner to lock on to the opponents slot receiver. Good luck finding much success passing against this defense.
1. New England Patriots
Last season: 14-2
Prediction this season: 13-3
Go ahead, call it a homer pick, but keep in mind that the Patriots had the league's top record last season as well. I realize they haven't won a playoff game since the depressing Super Bowl loss to the Giants deprived them of perfection, but these rankings are for the regular season. Ok, so I also picked the Pats to beat the Eagles in the Super Bowl as well, so what? Last I checked, they still have MVP Tom Brady as their QB and the genius that most people around the league consider to be one of the greatest coaches of all time. So what's not to like? They may have even improved themselves this year. Their biggest flaw last season was an inability to rush the passer, which led to a league worst ranking on 3rd down plays for their defense. So now they've revamped the defense, switching to a 4-3 base attack to better suit their new personnel, like Albert Haynseworth. Say what you will about his attitude or his failures in Washington, but he was never a good fit for that system and was unhappy with his role. Belichick seems intent not to make that same mistake. He's a big risk, but he appears happy and motivated now that he's in New England, which could lead to him getting back to being the pass rushing force that once made him a star. They also added Chad Ochocinco to add another threat to an already dangerous passing attack. He may have lost a step from his prime years, but he's still one of the league's best route runners and has great hands. While he's struggled so far to learn the playbook and get on the same page as Brady, the same things were once said about Randy Moss when he first joined the team. We know how that turned out that season. Perhaps it's wishful thinking, but I certainly won't bet against Brady and the Pats to finish at the top.
Wednesday, September 7, 2011
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
NFL Preview
Are you ready for some football?!
After a frustrating off-season spoiled by a greed driven lock-out, I think we're all glad to see that football is back and everything has returned to business as usual in the NFL. Sure, we've gotten a taste of some grid iron action the past couple weeks from pre-season games, but that's just the appetizer that comes before the main course.
As we prepare to fall into our Sunday routines for football season, let's look ahead at the upcoming season and make some bold predictions. Keep in mind these are meant to be bold predictions, so they aren't locks to come true. What fun would that be? Anyone can make a prediction that Tom Brady will have another elite season, because barring injury, we expect that from him. On the other hand, we don't want to make wild predictions about Tavarias Jackson winning the MVP award. That would never happen (sorry Seattle). Instead, we're looking for somewhere in between, things that could come true, but it may come as a surprise to some if it did actually happen.
Without further delay, here are my predictions for this season:
AFC East: New England Patriots
AFC North: Baltimore Ravens
AFC South: Houston Texans
AFC West: San Diego Chargers
Wild Cards: New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles
NFC North: Green Bay Packers
NFC South: New Orleans Saints
NFC West: St. Louis Rams
Wild Cards: Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Cowboys
Super Bowl Pick
Patriots over Eagles
After a frustrating off-season spoiled by a greed driven lock-out, I think we're all glad to see that football is back and everything has returned to business as usual in the NFL. Sure, we've gotten a taste of some grid iron action the past couple weeks from pre-season games, but that's just the appetizer that comes before the main course.
As we prepare to fall into our Sunday routines for football season, let's look ahead at the upcoming season and make some bold predictions. Keep in mind these are meant to be bold predictions, so they aren't locks to come true. What fun would that be? Anyone can make a prediction that Tom Brady will have another elite season, because barring injury, we expect that from him. On the other hand, we don't want to make wild predictions about Tavarias Jackson winning the MVP award. That would never happen (sorry Seattle). Instead, we're looking for somewhere in between, things that could come true, but it may come as a surprise to some if it did actually happen.
Without further delay, here are my predictions for this season:
- For the first time in about two decades, an NFL season will start without Brett Favre. Sure, there have been whispers about him coming back to mentor a young starter, but can anyone really picture Favre being content holding a clip board? He's done, shows over. I think. Probably. Hopefully. Crap, he probably just signed somewhere. Ok, I've got the obligatory Favre mention out of the way, time to move on.
- The effects of the lock-out will still be felt through at least the first month of the season. Shorter training camps and late free agent additions have given teams less time to prepare for the season. The results will likely be sloppy play in the first few games, especially from teams with a new coach and system. Look for more conservative offenses and missed assignments on defense in the early going.
- Peyton Manning's neck injury will force him to miss at least one game this season, snapping his consecutive games streak a mere 89 games short of Brett Favre's record (wait, I thought we were done talking about Favre, sorry!).
- The Colts will miss the playoffs for the first time in a decade.
- Even without the Colts in the posteason, we'll still get to see Payton Manning more than any other QB in the league this year thanks to the 37 commercials he'll be appearing in.
- Albert Haynesworth will be a model citizen in New England and become a pass rushing force, leading the league in sacks. I don't know how Belichick gets bad boys like him to fall in line. It may have something to do with the camera from the Spy Gate scandal. He may be using it to blackmail his players into behaving. Genius!
- Chad OchoCinco will start a new reality TV show along with new teammate Wes Welker. The WesOcho Show! They will spend time every episode making fun of Jets coach Rex Ryan and telling jokes about feet. Their actions will get them reprimanded by coach Belichick, who will then secretly tell the players behind closed doors that he's a fan of the show and thinks it's hilarious.
- Dating Hayden Pannettiere will do for Mark Sanchez's career what Jessica Simpson once did for Tony Romo's - temporarily destroy it. I'm not just saying that because I don't like the Jets or because I'm jealous that he's [rumored to be] dating the former Heroes star. Honest...
- Randy Moss will beg the Patriots to take him back. Belichick will eventually agree, but only so that he can immediately trade him back to Minnesota for a 4th round draft pick. Those Vikings never learn.
- Baltimore's Ray Rice will lead all RB's in total yardage. He has less competition for touches this year and will benefit from the gift that helped make Arian Foster last year's leading rusher, running behind blocking Full Back Vonte Leech. He's also one of the league's best receiving backs, allowing him to tack on plenty of extra yardage through the air to add to that total.
- Michael Vick will play all 16 games. He'll avoid injury by learning to avoid getting hit, by going into a slide before the contact arrives, like every other QB does.
- Donovan McNabb will have a resurgent season in Minnesota, prompting Redskins owner Dan Snyder to place a call to the Vikings asking how much it would take to trade for a player like that to upgrade their miserable passing game.
- A Dallas Cowboy receiver will be one of the top 10 receivers in the league. It's either Miles Austin or Dez Bryant, but not both. Whichever one is on Romo's good side the most is primed for a huge year.
- After teasing us as a sleeper team for years, the Texans will finally breakout and make the playoffs for the first time in team history. The offense is loaded and with Wade Phillips as the new defensive coordinator, their defense can't be as bad as before.
- Jamaal Charles will finally get 250+ carries. The KC coaching staff has to know their offense is better when putting the ball into the hands of their most explosive player, as opposed to giving carries away to the corpse wearing the Thomas Jones jersey.
- Kyle Orton will begin the year as the starter in Denver. After a losing record through the first half of the season, they will turn the job over to Tim Tebow. When the team gets even worse, they realize the rest of the team is just bad, that's why they keep losing. The whole mess just drives Orton to start drinking more.
- San Diego will have a winning record in the month of December. Home games against Jacksonville and Buffalo, plus the road game in Detroit are all very winnable match-ups. They can save the late season collapse for January this year, because they are getting back into the playoffs.
- I like Detroit as a possible sleeper team. They are loaded with young talent and ready to break out at any time. I'm tempted to pick them as an NFC Wild Card team, but I need to see Matthew Stafford make it through a season healthy before I can really be a believer in this team. A 9-7 record isn't out of reach.
- This is the year we find out that Raiders owner Al Davis actually died 5 years ago.
- Somebody from the NFC West will have a winning record this year. We just can't have a losing team make the playoffs again! My bet would be on the Rams making a jump this year.
- The Packers may be the defending Super Bowl champs, but the Eagles have made themselves the team to beat in the NFC.
- Sorry Pittsburgh, but the track record for teams that lose in the Super Bowl isn't good for the hangover season. The Patriots are the front runner in the AFC.
AFC East: New England Patriots
AFC North: Baltimore Ravens
AFC South: Houston Texans
AFC West: San Diego Chargers
Wild Cards: New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles
NFC North: Green Bay Packers
NFC South: New Orleans Saints
NFC West: St. Louis Rams
Wild Cards: Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Cowboys
Super Bowl Pick
Patriots over Eagles
Thursday, August 11, 2011
Fantasy Football Preview
The NFL lockout has ended, players are in camp to prepare for the upcoming season and it's time for the rest of us to start preparing as well - for Fantasy Football that is. Due to the shortened off-season, teams have been frantically scrambling to sign free agents to fill out their rosters, leaving us less time to properly prepare. This means it will be even more important this year to prepare for your draft, which will be sneaking up on you before you know it.
There are many ways to go about drafting a successful Fantasy Football team, but no matter what your strategy is, it's essential to go into your draft with a gameplan. Do your research ahead of time so that when you are on the clock to make your next pick you'll be able to make a selection with confidence. There's nothing that can ruin a draft more than uncertainty as the seconds tick away on the clock, which can lead to a panic move, resulting in a poor draft choice. This is particularly true early on in the draft. While you can take some risks later on, you can't afford to botch an early round pick in a competitive league.
With that in mind, here are the rules I outline for myself heading into a draft.
1. Know your League Settings - there are a variety of different styles and scoring options that can be used in Fantasy Football, so it's essential to know what they are ahead of time. For example, if your league is a PPR (points per reception) league then you have to know that receivers become more valuable. Running backs that pile up receptions also get a big bump in value (Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy).
Also check to see how many points each category is worth. Do QBs get credit for the same number of points for a TD as a RB or WR gets? If so, then QBs become much more valuable since they score more TDs than any other position. The top 20 QBs last season all scored more TDs than the best RB or WR. Tom Brady, who led the way with 36 passing TDs, had more than twice as many TDs as any RB or WR. Because of this disparity, most leagues will make passing TDs worth less (typically 4 points) than a rushing or receiving TD (typically 6 points) to help even out QB value in relation to other positions, but that won't always be the case.
2. What kind of draft is it? - the two most common options are snake drafts and auction drafts. In a snake draft, each manager in the league is assigned a draft spot. So in a 10 team league, the person with the top pick will select the first player, and this trend will continue down the line until all 10 teams have picked. Then the orders reverses in the next round, so the manager that picks last in the previous round goes first in the next round.
Personally, I prefer auction leagues, which are a much better way of determining skill and strategy. Rather than being confined by a certain spot in the draft order, in an auction, managers take turns nominating a player that everyone in the league is then allowed to bid on. The player is then awarded to the highest bidder. Teams are bound to a salary cap and must fill every spot on their roster, including bench spots. If there is a player you really want, you can have him - you just have to pay for him. If you overspend early then you may find yourself without much money left to bid with near the end of the draft, so a big chunk of your roster may be filled out with cheaper players. On the other hand, if you are too conservative then you won't end up with enough elite players and will end up overspending on lesser talent. The last thing you want to do is end up leaving money on the table. You have a cap limit, but make sure you spend it all.
There are different strategies that you can use, depending on which type of draft you are involved in. I advise that you practice ahead of time by doing mock drafts (which can be found on many of the popular fantasy sports sites, such as ESPN or Yahoo). Doing a mock draft allows you to test different strategies to see what works and helps you prepare for your real draft.
3. Who's #1? - there are many different opinions on this subject, but the majority of people will tell you that the top pick, or the most expensive player in an auction, should be a RB. In each of the past two years, the highest scoring player has been a RB, but if you look at the top 10 players in each of those seasons you'll notice that QBs overwhelmingly dominate the top of the leader boards. Last year, 8 of the top 10 players in standard leagues were QBs. So why not draft a QB in the first round then? The answer is simple - position scarcity. In most leagues, you only need 1 QB to start each week, while you can typically start 2 or even 3 RBs. In a 10 team league, most managers in the league will manage to draft an elite QB, but a stud RB is harder to come by. The drop off from the elite RBs to what you'll be able to find later on is more drastic than it is for QBs.
Last year's top player was Arian Foster. Before that it was Chris Johnson. Both of them will be featured prominently in the discussion for the top pick in most drafts and will likely be gone within the first few picks. Personally, I'd place Adrian Peterson first on the list. While he's never had a season where he's finished as the top player in fantasy, he's been in the top 3 amongst RBs in every season if his career. That kind of consistency makes him the safest pick, which is what you want with the top pick, where choosing a bust could doom your entire draft. Not that I'm expecting Foster or Johnson to be a bust, but they come with more risk. Foster was the breakout star of last season, jumping from the practice squad to the Pro-Bowl. It remains to be seen how he will follow up on that impressive campaign, especially with teams game planning more to stop him. Johnson was a beast in 2009 when he rushed for over 2,000 yards, but he dropped off rather dramatically last year, with only 1,364 yards and finished 6th amongst RBs in fantasy points. Still a very good season, but hardly makes him a lock for the top pick. You really can't go wrong with any of them, but I prefer AP.
4. The Vick Factor - last year an early season injury to Kevin Kolb opened the door for Michael Vick to become a starter in the league for the first time since being released from prison. He would go on to blow away everyone's expectations, turning in the best performance of his career and finishing as the top QB in fantasy, despite playing in only 12 games. His improved accuracy throwing the football, combined with his unique ability to rush for yardage with his legs (his 676 rushing yards nearly doubled the next best QB in that category) made him one of the best assets in the game.
Coming off this outstanding season, and with all the abilities he posses, in addition to the weapons surrounding him in the Eagles' offense, many people are picking Vick as the top QB in drafts this year. Some even argue he could go first overall. While Vick certainly has the ability to be the top scorer in fantasy this season, he also comes with more risk than most QBs. His reckless running style makes him susceptible to injury, as shown by the fact that he missed 3 games last season after being hit during a head-first dive toward the end zone. The feet first slide that most QBs use to prevent contact is not in Vick's arsenal of moves.
It's also a concern that Vicks' 62.6 completion percentage is far better than his previous career high from his days in Atlanta. Not many QBs can say they've shown that much improvement after being out of the league for two years. Perhaps his improvement can be partially attributed to the receivers around him, which is a group that is deeper and more talented than what he had in Atlanta. However, we can't necessarily expect a repeat of this career high performance either.
Vick is a high risk/high reward pick. On a per game basis he will still likely deliver an elite caliber performance, but it's difficult to predict him playing all 16 games or improving on last year's success. It will likely cost a lot to get him, and I'd feel better investing in someone like Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady instead.
5. Use Position Tiers - breaking players up into Tiers can help you determine which direction to go in for your next pick. If two players are in the same Tier then it means they have similar value, so while you may not necessarily get the top guy you are looking for, you'd be satisfied with anyone in that group.
Let's say it's your turn to pick and your torn between taking a QB or a RB. Most of the top RBs are already gone, but you have the chance to take someone from the end of the 2nd Tier at that position. You look at the remaining list of QBs and realize only Vick and Rodgers are off the board already, leaving 4 other elite options that you'd be happy to own. In this case, you should take the RB, since the drop off after a Tier 2 RB is bigger than the difference between QBs like Brees and Rivers. There isn't always a way to ensure one of those other elite QBs will still be there when you pick again, so it's important to look ahead to how many picks are between this and your next one, as well as if the teams in between still need a QB.
Here is an example of how to break down players into Tiers.
QB
Tier 1: Rodgers, Vick, Brady, Brees, Rivers, Payton Manning
Tier 2: Romo, Schuab, Rothlisberger, Freeman
Tier 3: Ryan, Bradford, Flacco, Eli Manning, Kolb
*Tier 3 guys are likely only a backup in a 10 team league. Anyone lower than this tier shouldn’t be drafted, since if you get a Tier 1 guy you don’t really need a backup.
RB
Tier 1: Peterson, Foster, Johnson, Charles
Tier 2: Rice, Jones-Drew, McCoy, Gore, Turner, Mendenhall
Tier 3: McFadden, Hillis, Jackson, Forte, Blount, Bradshaw, Williams, Greene, Moreno, Mathews
WR
Tier 1: Andre Johnson, Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, White, Jennings
Tier 2: Nicks, Wallace, DeSean Jackson, Vincent Jackson, Austin, Wayne, Bowe, Dez Bryant
Tier 3: Marshall, Mike Williams, Colston, Welker, Lloyd, Maclin, Boldin
Tier 4: Stevie Johnson, Britt, Holmes, Rice, Steve Smith (Car)
6. Know the people in your league - this isn't always possible if you play in a public league with people you've never met, but through the message boards or emails you can still get a sense of what players they value. If you know their favorite team then that person may be more likely to reach for players from that team. The same goes for if you know they like a particular player. Some owners lean towards players they've had in previous seasons, especially if they were successful that year. Knowing this during your draft will help you potentially predict their draft choices, which will help you determine what players may fall to you to prepare you for your next pick.
7. Never draft a kicker before the last round! - Just don't do it. Ever. End of story. Ok, want proof? There's no reason to use anything but your final pick on a kicker, because there is no other position in the game that is more of a crap shoot. You can't predict who the top kickers in the league will be this year, it's impossible. Sure, there are some kickers that have more range and some that are more accurate than others. But scoring points from your kicker in Fantasy Football is more about opportunity than talent.
Last year's top kicker, Sebastian Janikowski, wasn't even in the top 10 the previous year. Nate Kaeding was the top kicker in 2009, and wasn't anywhere near the top last year. In fact, only 2 kickers in the league ranked in the top 10 in fantasy scoring in each of the past two seasons, and I wouldn't necessarily bet that either of them will do so again this year.
Also, keep in mind that there were only 34 points that separated last year's top kicker from the 10th best kicker. That averages out to barely over 2 points per week. To put that in some perspective, the 10th best QB last season (Eli Maning) finished nearly 80 points behind Vick. There's just not enough of a difference between the league's top kicker and a scrub you can find on waivers to warrant a higher draft pick, even if you could predict who would be the best.
8. You can wait on defense too - You don't necessarily have to wait until the second to last round (right before taking a kicker, of course) to draft a Defense, but there's no reason to take one early. This is in part because DEF is also a difficult position to predict, since being an elite defense on the gridiron does not necessarily translate to being a high scoring fantasy defense. For example, last year's top scoring DEF was the Patriots, who finished as a fairly mediocre defense by most statistical measures used to evaluate NFL teams.
Ideally you'd like to be able to draft one of the top 5 elite defenses that are the most likely to finish near the top of the rankings: Packers, Eagles, Steelers, Jets, or Bears. Those are the safest picks, but there are a handful of others that would suffice as well, plus there's always teams like the Patriots last year that come out of nowhere to produce big fantasy numbers despite not being thought of as an elite defensive team.
While you would prefer not to be at the end of the run when it comes to picking a defense, you don't want to be the one to pick one several rounds ahead of everyone else either. It's typically best to wait until you at least have all your starting spots filled (besides kicker) before selecting a DEF. While filling out your bench, if you find there is nobody at the top of your draft board that you are thrilled about, or if several guys from the same Tier are all still available, then it's ok to start thinking about taking a DEF.
9. Don't overrate sleepers - identifying sleeper picks late in the draft is an essential part of a successful draft. This require research, strategy, and a little luck. A "sleeper" is a term used to describe a player on the cusp of a breakout season. They may not be well known to the casual fan, but savvy fantasy owners know them, as hype around their potential builds all off-season long. The danger in this is that sometimes a player can get too much hype, inflating their value. What makes a sleeper pick so valuable is the return on investment, or ROI, that you get from the pick. For example, many of the teams that won their leagues last year had Arian Foster in their lineup. This isn't just because Foster was the highest scoring player in the game, but also because he wasn't drafted that high. Anyone can draft Adrian Peterson or Chris Johnson and be satisfied with their top 10 production, but taking a player in the 10th round that gives you that same kind of elite production is a huge bonus because that draft pick gave you a much better ROI than the first round pick used on AP or CJ2K.
However, be cautious of letting the hype drive up someone's draft price. There is a reason that these players are considered sleepers. It's because they have yet to break out, which means there's still the chance that they won't have the big breakout season many anticipate from them. In fact, the majority of players on most of the pre-season sleeper lists you'll see end up disappointing. If you draft these players higher than you should then it can hurt your draft, and even if they do break out, if you took them much higher than you could have then the ROI isn't as great. It's best to target several sleeper options late in the draft, knowing most will probably fail, but hoping for that diamond in the rough. Just don't overpay to get them.
10. You don't have to like the guys you draft - meaning that you should be happy with the stats they are going to pile up for you, even if you don't happen to like the player as a person. You could be an active member of PETA, but if Michael Vick is going to help you win your league then you can't pass on him because of his past off field issues. Maybe you're a huge Giants fan, but that doesn't mean you take Eli Manning over his brother Peyton. Sure, it's fun to be able to draft our favorite players and guys from the teams we root for, but if you're serious about winning your league then sometimes you have to take a guy you despise if he happens to be the best available option.
Honestly, there is no fool proof plan to having a perfect draft. If there was, then we'd all be winners. In most leagues I've played in, that's just never the case. There can only be one winner at the end of the season, and the journey towards achieving that goal starts with having a successful draft. Following these rules won't guarantee you a fantasy title, but it will get you off to a good start.
There are many ways to go about drafting a successful Fantasy Football team, but no matter what your strategy is, it's essential to go into your draft with a gameplan. Do your research ahead of time so that when you are on the clock to make your next pick you'll be able to make a selection with confidence. There's nothing that can ruin a draft more than uncertainty as the seconds tick away on the clock, which can lead to a panic move, resulting in a poor draft choice. This is particularly true early on in the draft. While you can take some risks later on, you can't afford to botch an early round pick in a competitive league.
With that in mind, here are the rules I outline for myself heading into a draft.
1. Know your League Settings - there are a variety of different styles and scoring options that can be used in Fantasy Football, so it's essential to know what they are ahead of time. For example, if your league is a PPR (points per reception) league then you have to know that receivers become more valuable. Running backs that pile up receptions also get a big bump in value (Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy).
Also check to see how many points each category is worth. Do QBs get credit for the same number of points for a TD as a RB or WR gets? If so, then QBs become much more valuable since they score more TDs than any other position. The top 20 QBs last season all scored more TDs than the best RB or WR. Tom Brady, who led the way with 36 passing TDs, had more than twice as many TDs as any RB or WR. Because of this disparity, most leagues will make passing TDs worth less (typically 4 points) than a rushing or receiving TD (typically 6 points) to help even out QB value in relation to other positions, but that won't always be the case.
2. What kind of draft is it? - the two most common options are snake drafts and auction drafts. In a snake draft, each manager in the league is assigned a draft spot. So in a 10 team league, the person with the top pick will select the first player, and this trend will continue down the line until all 10 teams have picked. Then the orders reverses in the next round, so the manager that picks last in the previous round goes first in the next round.
Personally, I prefer auction leagues, which are a much better way of determining skill and strategy. Rather than being confined by a certain spot in the draft order, in an auction, managers take turns nominating a player that everyone in the league is then allowed to bid on. The player is then awarded to the highest bidder. Teams are bound to a salary cap and must fill every spot on their roster, including bench spots. If there is a player you really want, you can have him - you just have to pay for him. If you overspend early then you may find yourself without much money left to bid with near the end of the draft, so a big chunk of your roster may be filled out with cheaper players. On the other hand, if you are too conservative then you won't end up with enough elite players and will end up overspending on lesser talent. The last thing you want to do is end up leaving money on the table. You have a cap limit, but make sure you spend it all.
There are different strategies that you can use, depending on which type of draft you are involved in. I advise that you practice ahead of time by doing mock drafts (which can be found on many of the popular fantasy sports sites, such as ESPN or Yahoo). Doing a mock draft allows you to test different strategies to see what works and helps you prepare for your real draft.
3. Who's #1? - there are many different opinions on this subject, but the majority of people will tell you that the top pick, or the most expensive player in an auction, should be a RB. In each of the past two years, the highest scoring player has been a RB, but if you look at the top 10 players in each of those seasons you'll notice that QBs overwhelmingly dominate the top of the leader boards. Last year, 8 of the top 10 players in standard leagues were QBs. So why not draft a QB in the first round then? The answer is simple - position scarcity. In most leagues, you only need 1 QB to start each week, while you can typically start 2 or even 3 RBs. In a 10 team league, most managers in the league will manage to draft an elite QB, but a stud RB is harder to come by. The drop off from the elite RBs to what you'll be able to find later on is more drastic than it is for QBs.
Last year's top player was Arian Foster. Before that it was Chris Johnson. Both of them will be featured prominently in the discussion for the top pick in most drafts and will likely be gone within the first few picks. Personally, I'd place Adrian Peterson first on the list. While he's never had a season where he's finished as the top player in fantasy, he's been in the top 3 amongst RBs in every season if his career. That kind of consistency makes him the safest pick, which is what you want with the top pick, where choosing a bust could doom your entire draft. Not that I'm expecting Foster or Johnson to be a bust, but they come with more risk. Foster was the breakout star of last season, jumping from the practice squad to the Pro-Bowl. It remains to be seen how he will follow up on that impressive campaign, especially with teams game planning more to stop him. Johnson was a beast in 2009 when he rushed for over 2,000 yards, but he dropped off rather dramatically last year, with only 1,364 yards and finished 6th amongst RBs in fantasy points. Still a very good season, but hardly makes him a lock for the top pick. You really can't go wrong with any of them, but I prefer AP.
4. The Vick Factor - last year an early season injury to Kevin Kolb opened the door for Michael Vick to become a starter in the league for the first time since being released from prison. He would go on to blow away everyone's expectations, turning in the best performance of his career and finishing as the top QB in fantasy, despite playing in only 12 games. His improved accuracy throwing the football, combined with his unique ability to rush for yardage with his legs (his 676 rushing yards nearly doubled the next best QB in that category) made him one of the best assets in the game.
Coming off this outstanding season, and with all the abilities he posses, in addition to the weapons surrounding him in the Eagles' offense, many people are picking Vick as the top QB in drafts this year. Some even argue he could go first overall. While Vick certainly has the ability to be the top scorer in fantasy this season, he also comes with more risk than most QBs. His reckless running style makes him susceptible to injury, as shown by the fact that he missed 3 games last season after being hit during a head-first dive toward the end zone. The feet first slide that most QBs use to prevent contact is not in Vick's arsenal of moves.
It's also a concern that Vicks' 62.6 completion percentage is far better than his previous career high from his days in Atlanta. Not many QBs can say they've shown that much improvement after being out of the league for two years. Perhaps his improvement can be partially attributed to the receivers around him, which is a group that is deeper and more talented than what he had in Atlanta. However, we can't necessarily expect a repeat of this career high performance either.
Vick is a high risk/high reward pick. On a per game basis he will still likely deliver an elite caliber performance, but it's difficult to predict him playing all 16 games or improving on last year's success. It will likely cost a lot to get him, and I'd feel better investing in someone like Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady instead.
5. Use Position Tiers - breaking players up into Tiers can help you determine which direction to go in for your next pick. If two players are in the same Tier then it means they have similar value, so while you may not necessarily get the top guy you are looking for, you'd be satisfied with anyone in that group.
Let's say it's your turn to pick and your torn between taking a QB or a RB. Most of the top RBs are already gone, but you have the chance to take someone from the end of the 2nd Tier at that position. You look at the remaining list of QBs and realize only Vick and Rodgers are off the board already, leaving 4 other elite options that you'd be happy to own. In this case, you should take the RB, since the drop off after a Tier 2 RB is bigger than the difference between QBs like Brees and Rivers. There isn't always a way to ensure one of those other elite QBs will still be there when you pick again, so it's important to look ahead to how many picks are between this and your next one, as well as if the teams in between still need a QB.
Here is an example of how to break down players into Tiers.
QB
Tier 1: Rodgers, Vick, Brady, Brees, Rivers, Payton Manning
Tier 2: Romo, Schuab, Rothlisberger, Freeman
Tier 3: Ryan, Bradford, Flacco, Eli Manning, Kolb
*Tier 3 guys are likely only a backup in a 10 team league. Anyone lower than this tier shouldn’t be drafted, since if you get a Tier 1 guy you don’t really need a backup.
RB
Tier 1: Peterson, Foster, Johnson, Charles
Tier 2: Rice, Jones-Drew, McCoy, Gore, Turner, Mendenhall
Tier 3: McFadden, Hillis, Jackson, Forte, Blount, Bradshaw, Williams, Greene, Moreno, Mathews
WR
Tier 1: Andre Johnson, Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, White, Jennings
Tier 2: Nicks, Wallace, DeSean Jackson, Vincent Jackson, Austin, Wayne, Bowe, Dez Bryant
Tier 3: Marshall, Mike Williams, Colston, Welker, Lloyd, Maclin, Boldin
Tier 4: Stevie Johnson, Britt, Holmes, Rice, Steve Smith (Car)
6. Know the people in your league - this isn't always possible if you play in a public league with people you've never met, but through the message boards or emails you can still get a sense of what players they value. If you know their favorite team then that person may be more likely to reach for players from that team. The same goes for if you know they like a particular player. Some owners lean towards players they've had in previous seasons, especially if they were successful that year. Knowing this during your draft will help you potentially predict their draft choices, which will help you determine what players may fall to you to prepare you for your next pick.
7. Never draft a kicker before the last round! - Just don't do it. Ever. End of story. Ok, want proof? There's no reason to use anything but your final pick on a kicker, because there is no other position in the game that is more of a crap shoot. You can't predict who the top kickers in the league will be this year, it's impossible. Sure, there are some kickers that have more range and some that are more accurate than others. But scoring points from your kicker in Fantasy Football is more about opportunity than talent.
Last year's top kicker, Sebastian Janikowski, wasn't even in the top 10 the previous year. Nate Kaeding was the top kicker in 2009, and wasn't anywhere near the top last year. In fact, only 2 kickers in the league ranked in the top 10 in fantasy scoring in each of the past two seasons, and I wouldn't necessarily bet that either of them will do so again this year.
Also, keep in mind that there were only 34 points that separated last year's top kicker from the 10th best kicker. That averages out to barely over 2 points per week. To put that in some perspective, the 10th best QB last season (Eli Maning) finished nearly 80 points behind Vick. There's just not enough of a difference between the league's top kicker and a scrub you can find on waivers to warrant a higher draft pick, even if you could predict who would be the best.
8. You can wait on defense too - You don't necessarily have to wait until the second to last round (right before taking a kicker, of course) to draft a Defense, but there's no reason to take one early. This is in part because DEF is also a difficult position to predict, since being an elite defense on the gridiron does not necessarily translate to being a high scoring fantasy defense. For example, last year's top scoring DEF was the Patriots, who finished as a fairly mediocre defense by most statistical measures used to evaluate NFL teams.
Ideally you'd like to be able to draft one of the top 5 elite defenses that are the most likely to finish near the top of the rankings: Packers, Eagles, Steelers, Jets, or Bears. Those are the safest picks, but there are a handful of others that would suffice as well, plus there's always teams like the Patriots last year that come out of nowhere to produce big fantasy numbers despite not being thought of as an elite defensive team.
While you would prefer not to be at the end of the run when it comes to picking a defense, you don't want to be the one to pick one several rounds ahead of everyone else either. It's typically best to wait until you at least have all your starting spots filled (besides kicker) before selecting a DEF. While filling out your bench, if you find there is nobody at the top of your draft board that you are thrilled about, or if several guys from the same Tier are all still available, then it's ok to start thinking about taking a DEF.
9. Don't overrate sleepers - identifying sleeper picks late in the draft is an essential part of a successful draft. This require research, strategy, and a little luck. A "sleeper" is a term used to describe a player on the cusp of a breakout season. They may not be well known to the casual fan, but savvy fantasy owners know them, as hype around their potential builds all off-season long. The danger in this is that sometimes a player can get too much hype, inflating their value. What makes a sleeper pick so valuable is the return on investment, or ROI, that you get from the pick. For example, many of the teams that won their leagues last year had Arian Foster in their lineup. This isn't just because Foster was the highest scoring player in the game, but also because he wasn't drafted that high. Anyone can draft Adrian Peterson or Chris Johnson and be satisfied with their top 10 production, but taking a player in the 10th round that gives you that same kind of elite production is a huge bonus because that draft pick gave you a much better ROI than the first round pick used on AP or CJ2K.
However, be cautious of letting the hype drive up someone's draft price. There is a reason that these players are considered sleepers. It's because they have yet to break out, which means there's still the chance that they won't have the big breakout season many anticipate from them. In fact, the majority of players on most of the pre-season sleeper lists you'll see end up disappointing. If you draft these players higher than you should then it can hurt your draft, and even if they do break out, if you took them much higher than you could have then the ROI isn't as great. It's best to target several sleeper options late in the draft, knowing most will probably fail, but hoping for that diamond in the rough. Just don't overpay to get them.
10. You don't have to like the guys you draft - meaning that you should be happy with the stats they are going to pile up for you, even if you don't happen to like the player as a person. You could be an active member of PETA, but if Michael Vick is going to help you win your league then you can't pass on him because of his past off field issues. Maybe you're a huge Giants fan, but that doesn't mean you take Eli Manning over his brother Peyton. Sure, it's fun to be able to draft our favorite players and guys from the teams we root for, but if you're serious about winning your league then sometimes you have to take a guy you despise if he happens to be the best available option.
Honestly, there is no fool proof plan to having a perfect draft. If there was, then we'd all be winners. In most leagues I've played in, that's just never the case. There can only be one winner at the end of the season, and the journey towards achieving that goal starts with having a successful draft. Following these rules won't guarantee you a fantasy title, but it will get you off to a good start.
Thursday, August 4, 2011
Red Sox MVP Contenders
We've entered the final third of the regular season, a time when momentum begins to build for the contenders for the league's Most Valuable Player. An unofficial requirement is for candidates to have a strong finish to the season, preferably in helping their team clinch a playoff spot. Looking at the field of candidates in the American League, it's clear that there will be several players in the race. Several of those deserving candidates happen to make up the top third of the lineup for the Red Sox. Determining the front runner for the MVP race is hard enough, especially when it's difficult to even determine who the best player on the league's best team has been.
While there is certainly no guarantee that the eventual MVP winner will come from Boston, their current first place standing and league leading offense gives their candidates a leg up in the discussion. Toronto's Jose Bautista may be the league's best hitter right now, while the Yankees' Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeria should get consideration as well. There will be time later to sort out the league MVP, but for now, let's try to determine which Red Sox player has been most valuable to the team thus far: Adrian Gonzalez, Jacoby Ellsbury or Dustin Pedroia.
Here is a breakdown of their season statistics through August 3rd.
Avg OBP SLG Runs HRs RBIs Steals WAR UZR/150
Gonzalez .357 .416 .568 77 18 90 1 5.3 11.0
Ellsbury .317 .373 .513 82 18 65 31 5.7 11.0
Pedroia .314 .407 .487 73 15 57 22 6.8 22.4
*Data from FanGraphs.com
The data above shows that each of these players is having a fantastic season. While they are all close in several categories, there are some categories where a player's dominance may help separate them from the group.
The Case for Gonzalez
A-Gon leads the American League in Batting Average, Hits, and RBIs, while placing in the top 3 in several other hitting categories. Since being acquired from San Diego for a slew of highly rated prospects, Gonzalez has not disappointed in his first season in Boston. Finally free of the confines of Petco Park, he has unleashed his bat on the friendly confines of Fenway Park, putting him on pace for the best season of his career.
Gonzalez also rates as an elite defensive player, the best at his position in the AL by most metrics. However, first base isn't considered to be as important of a defensive position as the up the middle spots his teammates he's competing with play at.
Many voters for the MVP award have historically favored sluggers that drive in a ton of runs. Gonzalez certainly fits that requirement, as shown by his league leading RBI total. He also ranks 2nd in the league in wRC+, an advanced metric that shows the number of runs per plate appearance the player produces, scaled to where 100 is considered average. The metric is also league and park adjusted, making it one of the better statistics for measuring run production. Only Jose Bautista has a higher mark in this category, and given that he plays for a team out of contention, that may end up taking him out of this race. For the purposes of this discussion, debating amongst the top Red Sox players, Gonzalez is clearly the best run producer of the bunch.
The Case for Ellsbury
The speedy outfielder has recovered from rib injuries that cost him the majority of the 2010 season and has bounced back to produce the greatest year of his young career. He has become the premier lead off hitter in the league, setting the table for the league's most dominant offense. When Carl Crawford's arrival prompted many to push for him to hit at the top of the lineup, Terry Francona stood by his philosophy that his team is at it's best with Ellsbury in the lead off spot. So far he has not disappointed and has helped make his manager look very smart for sticking with him.
Most surprising about his break out season has been his increase in power. He had previously never hit double digits in Home Runs, but already has 18 this year. He has also already set a career high in doubles, while being on pace to set career marks in just about every category.
While he may not eclipse the 70 stolen bases he had in 2009, his current total of 31 steals is still amongst the league leaders. While the 55 point gap in slugging percentage between he and Gonzalez may seem steep, when you factor in their stolen base differential and consider a base hit plus a steal the same as a double, then the gap narrows considerably.
Despite his great speed, Ellsbury wasn't always known as a great defensive player. While he would make the occasional highlight reel catch, in his earlier years he would often get a bad jump on balls or take a bad route that would prevent him from getting to balls that someone with his speed should get to. Factor in his below average throwing arm and it was no surprise that the Red Sox acquired Mike Cameron to start the 2010 season to man centerfield, pushing Ellsbury to the less demanding left field position. This year has been a different story, as not only has Ellsbury reclaimed his centerfield spot, but he's excelled at it. He ranks third amongst AL outfielders in UZR and trails only the Angels' Peter Bourjos for centerfielders. His improved defense at one of the diamond's most important defensive positions is another reason to support Ellsbury's case for MVP.
The Case for Pedroia
The 2008 MVP already has a track record for bringing home the hardware, so his place on this list is hardly without precedence. The pesky second baseman has a closet full of awards, including Rookie of the Year, Silver Sluggers and Gold Gloves.
Winning an MVP award typically requires a strong second half finish, and nobody has started the second half of the season as well as Dustin Pedroia. The AL Player of the Month hit a scorching .411 last month, which included a 25 game hit streak, while also powering up to deliver 8 more Home Runs. His 1.188 OPS for the month was off the charts, helping to bring his season OPS close to a very respectable .900 mark.
On the surface, Pedroia seems to be right in the middle statistically, without dominating any one category. He falls short of the impressive batting average and RBI production of Gonzalez and doesn't quite match Ellsbury's speed. However, he does provide solid production across all categories. Like Ellsbury, he's not counted on to be a run producer because he hits at the top of the line-up, but his high OBP is one of the primary reasons why Gonzalez has such staggering RBI totals. Gonzalez has more plate appearances with runners on base thanks to the ability of Ellsbury and Pedroia to get on base ahead of him.
What really separates Pedroia from his teammates isn't just what he can do with his bat, but also with his glove. While both of his teammates are having very good defensive seasons, Pedroia rates far better. Not only does he rank as the top second baseman in UZR, but he's second in the entire league in that category. A middle infielder's job is one of the most demanding defensive positions and Pedroia has handled it brilliantly, making diving plays, turning double plays and collecting anything hit his way like a vacuum cleaner.
Pedroia's elite level combination of hitting and fielding are the reasons why he is 2nd in the league in WAR (wins above replacement), with his 6.8 rating falling just behind league leader Jose Bautista (6.9). Ellsbury (5.7) and Gonzalez (5.3) also rate in the top 5 in the league, but Pedroia adds over a full win more than what his teammates provide.
And the winner is...
It's a tough call because all three have had such impressive seasons. There's still plenty of baseball left to be played, but to this point in the season, I would say the MVP of the Red Sox has been....
Dustin Pedroia!
His gritty dirt dog approach embodies the mentality of this team. He plays hard every game and is capable of carrying the team on his back, as he's shown over the past month.
Gonzalez gets credit for being the team's best run producer, but at least some of the credit for that needs to go to the guys that hit in front of him. He may run away with the RBI title, but his Home Run total is a bit disappointing for a slugging first baseman. Considering he's tied with Ellsbury and not far ahead of Pedroia, two players not expected to show as much power, he needs to step it up in the power department to get more consideration. He also plays the least demanding defensive position of the group, so despite his strong play in the field, that has to be held against him (as unfair as that may be).
Depriving Ellsbury of winning the debate was a tough choice. He has Pedroia beat in every major offensive category, except for OBP (which happens to be perhaps the most important statistic, since the goal of every at bat is to not create outs). For the most part though, the gap in their offensive production is fairly minimal, while Pedroia has been dominant on the defensive end. While Ellsbury has been great, Pedroia has been outstanding, and that edge helps make up for the difference at the plate.
If Most Valuable Player is defined as the player that plays the biggest part in helping their team win, then Pedroia's all around game helps him take the award. According to his WAR rating, he adds over a win more to the Red Sox than his teammates do. I want my MVP to be the guy that helps add to the win column, and nobody on this team does that better than Dustin Pedroia.
While there is certainly no guarantee that the eventual MVP winner will come from Boston, their current first place standing and league leading offense gives their candidates a leg up in the discussion. Toronto's Jose Bautista may be the league's best hitter right now, while the Yankees' Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeria should get consideration as well. There will be time later to sort out the league MVP, but for now, let's try to determine which Red Sox player has been most valuable to the team thus far: Adrian Gonzalez, Jacoby Ellsbury or Dustin Pedroia.
Here is a breakdown of their season statistics through August 3rd.
Avg OBP SLG Runs HRs RBIs Steals WAR UZR/150
Gonzalez .357 .416 .568 77 18 90 1 5.3 11.0
Ellsbury .317 .373 .513 82 18 65 31 5.7 11.0
Pedroia .314 .407 .487 73 15 57 22 6.8 22.4
*Data from FanGraphs.com
The data above shows that each of these players is having a fantastic season. While they are all close in several categories, there are some categories where a player's dominance may help separate them from the group.
The Case for Gonzalez
A-Gon leads the American League in Batting Average, Hits, and RBIs, while placing in the top 3 in several other hitting categories. Since being acquired from San Diego for a slew of highly rated prospects, Gonzalez has not disappointed in his first season in Boston. Finally free of the confines of Petco Park, he has unleashed his bat on the friendly confines of Fenway Park, putting him on pace for the best season of his career.
Gonzalez also rates as an elite defensive player, the best at his position in the AL by most metrics. However, first base isn't considered to be as important of a defensive position as the up the middle spots his teammates he's competing with play at.
Many voters for the MVP award have historically favored sluggers that drive in a ton of runs. Gonzalez certainly fits that requirement, as shown by his league leading RBI total. He also ranks 2nd in the league in wRC+, an advanced metric that shows the number of runs per plate appearance the player produces, scaled to where 100 is considered average. The metric is also league and park adjusted, making it one of the better statistics for measuring run production. Only Jose Bautista has a higher mark in this category, and given that he plays for a team out of contention, that may end up taking him out of this race. For the purposes of this discussion, debating amongst the top Red Sox players, Gonzalez is clearly the best run producer of the bunch.
The Case for Ellsbury
The speedy outfielder has recovered from rib injuries that cost him the majority of the 2010 season and has bounced back to produce the greatest year of his young career. He has become the premier lead off hitter in the league, setting the table for the league's most dominant offense. When Carl Crawford's arrival prompted many to push for him to hit at the top of the lineup, Terry Francona stood by his philosophy that his team is at it's best with Ellsbury in the lead off spot. So far he has not disappointed and has helped make his manager look very smart for sticking with him.
Most surprising about his break out season has been his increase in power. He had previously never hit double digits in Home Runs, but already has 18 this year. He has also already set a career high in doubles, while being on pace to set career marks in just about every category.
While he may not eclipse the 70 stolen bases he had in 2009, his current total of 31 steals is still amongst the league leaders. While the 55 point gap in slugging percentage between he and Gonzalez may seem steep, when you factor in their stolen base differential and consider a base hit plus a steal the same as a double, then the gap narrows considerably.
Despite his great speed, Ellsbury wasn't always known as a great defensive player. While he would make the occasional highlight reel catch, in his earlier years he would often get a bad jump on balls or take a bad route that would prevent him from getting to balls that someone with his speed should get to. Factor in his below average throwing arm and it was no surprise that the Red Sox acquired Mike Cameron to start the 2010 season to man centerfield, pushing Ellsbury to the less demanding left field position. This year has been a different story, as not only has Ellsbury reclaimed his centerfield spot, but he's excelled at it. He ranks third amongst AL outfielders in UZR and trails only the Angels' Peter Bourjos for centerfielders. His improved defense at one of the diamond's most important defensive positions is another reason to support Ellsbury's case for MVP.
The Case for Pedroia
The 2008 MVP already has a track record for bringing home the hardware, so his place on this list is hardly without precedence. The pesky second baseman has a closet full of awards, including Rookie of the Year, Silver Sluggers and Gold Gloves.
Winning an MVP award typically requires a strong second half finish, and nobody has started the second half of the season as well as Dustin Pedroia. The AL Player of the Month hit a scorching .411 last month, which included a 25 game hit streak, while also powering up to deliver 8 more Home Runs. His 1.188 OPS for the month was off the charts, helping to bring his season OPS close to a very respectable .900 mark.
On the surface, Pedroia seems to be right in the middle statistically, without dominating any one category. He falls short of the impressive batting average and RBI production of Gonzalez and doesn't quite match Ellsbury's speed. However, he does provide solid production across all categories. Like Ellsbury, he's not counted on to be a run producer because he hits at the top of the line-up, but his high OBP is one of the primary reasons why Gonzalez has such staggering RBI totals. Gonzalez has more plate appearances with runners on base thanks to the ability of Ellsbury and Pedroia to get on base ahead of him.
What really separates Pedroia from his teammates isn't just what he can do with his bat, but also with his glove. While both of his teammates are having very good defensive seasons, Pedroia rates far better. Not only does he rank as the top second baseman in UZR, but he's second in the entire league in that category. A middle infielder's job is one of the most demanding defensive positions and Pedroia has handled it brilliantly, making diving plays, turning double plays and collecting anything hit his way like a vacuum cleaner.
Pedroia's elite level combination of hitting and fielding are the reasons why he is 2nd in the league in WAR (wins above replacement), with his 6.8 rating falling just behind league leader Jose Bautista (6.9). Ellsbury (5.7) and Gonzalez (5.3) also rate in the top 5 in the league, but Pedroia adds over a full win more than what his teammates provide.
And the winner is...
It's a tough call because all three have had such impressive seasons. There's still plenty of baseball left to be played, but to this point in the season, I would say the MVP of the Red Sox has been....
Dustin Pedroia!
His gritty dirt dog approach embodies the mentality of this team. He plays hard every game and is capable of carrying the team on his back, as he's shown over the past month.
Gonzalez gets credit for being the team's best run producer, but at least some of the credit for that needs to go to the guys that hit in front of him. He may run away with the RBI title, but his Home Run total is a bit disappointing for a slugging first baseman. Considering he's tied with Ellsbury and not far ahead of Pedroia, two players not expected to show as much power, he needs to step it up in the power department to get more consideration. He also plays the least demanding defensive position of the group, so despite his strong play in the field, that has to be held against him (as unfair as that may be).
Depriving Ellsbury of winning the debate was a tough choice. He has Pedroia beat in every major offensive category, except for OBP (which happens to be perhaps the most important statistic, since the goal of every at bat is to not create outs). For the most part though, the gap in their offensive production is fairly minimal, while Pedroia has been dominant on the defensive end. While Ellsbury has been great, Pedroia has been outstanding, and that edge helps make up for the difference at the plate.
If Most Valuable Player is defined as the player that plays the biggest part in helping their team win, then Pedroia's all around game helps him take the award. According to his WAR rating, he adds over a win more to the Red Sox than his teammates do. I want my MVP to be the guy that helps add to the win column, and nobody on this team does that better than Dustin Pedroia.
Monday, August 1, 2011
MLB Trade Deadline Winners & Losers
The MLB trade deadline passed us by yesterday afternoon, giving teams their last opportunity to make a trade to upgrade their roster without requiring players to pass through waivers. With so many teams still in the race, particularly in the NL, it limited the number of sellers, leaving some buyers unsatisfied.
Surprisingly, some big names that were swirling in the rumor mill heading toward the deadline, such as Heath Bell and B.J. Upton, did not get moved. Meanwhile, some contending teams expected to make a move, like the Yankees, were mysteriously silent.
Let's sort out which teams were successful at the deadline and which teams dropped the ball.
Winners
Philadelphia Phillies
They gave up some promising young prospects, but also filled a big hole on their roster by trading for Hunter Pence. For a contending team that's practically clinched a playoff spot already, improving their chances to win in October was a chance they could not pass on. Pence is an immediate upgrade in the outfield. He could take over for struggling rookie Dominic Brown, or be used to replace the rapidly declining Raul Ibanez in left. The Phillies have a dominant rotation, but needed a boost to their offense to back them up. Pence essentially replaces the production they lost when they allowed Jayson Werth to walk away, but he's much cheaper and they will still be able to keep him after this season.
San Francisco Giants
The Giants were desperate to add some punch to their anemic offense, and they succeeded by adding perhaps the best bat on the market in Carlos Beltran. He's the legitimate middle of the order bat that they've lacked all year. He may not run or play defense as well as he used to, but they got him to hit, which is one thing he's proved he can still do as long as he's healthy.
They also made separate moves to acquire Jeff Keppinger and Orlando Cabrera to shore up their infield depth. Both provide low cost marginal upgrades. O-Cab brings some essential intangibles to the table. Perhaps it's a coincidence, but when he goes to a new team he always seems to be a spark plug that helps the team improve (Red Sox in '04, Reds in '10, Indians this year, just to name a few examples).
Atlanta Braves
They lost out on the sweepstakes for both Beltran and Pence, but may have ended up ahead in the end by acquiring Michael Bourn. He doesn't get the attention he deserves due to his lack of power and RBI totals, but he is an elite center fielder that gets on base and routinely leads the NL in stolen bases. His 3.6 WAR (according to FanGraphs) is a full point ahead of his former teammate, Pence, and right in line with Beltran's. Yet he came to Atlanta at a much cheaper price than what the Giants and Phillies paid. He's a great fit in their line-up, which has gotten very little production out of the lead off spot. Excuse the bad pun, but this deal appears to be a steal for the Braves.
New York Mets
You don't have to be a buyer to be a winner at the deadline. The Mets have no chance at the postseason, making them clear sellers. They unloaded two high cost players in Francisco Rodriguez and Carlos Beltran and got some good prospects in return. They received San Francisco's best prospect, pitcher Zack Wheeler, which is a much better haul than most anticipated they would get for a 2 month rental of Beltran.
The money they save could go towards the funds they will need to re-sign Jose Reyes this off-season. Beltran wasn't going to be back, and by trading K-Rod they remove the fear that he could earn his ridiculous $17.5 million player option that kicks in if he finishes 55 games this season, which he was on pace to do. As part of the deal, it now becomes a mutual option for the Brewers, with a $4 million buyout, making it less risky for the Brewers to acquire him.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The moves they made were relatively minor, but they are big upgrades. After so many years of losing, it's nice to see the Pirates making a run at the playoffs. These moves should help. Derek Lee is clearly on the decline, but he's been hot lately and can't be any worse than Lyle Overbay. The addition of Ryan Ludwick to the outfield is an upgrade over Matt Diaz, and his numbers should increase now that he's hitting in a better line-up, outside of Petco Park.
Neither of these guys are difference makers, but they didn't give up any of their top prospects to get them, so it's a small risk that could help them stay in the race down the stretch.
Texas Rangers
They didn't make the same kind of splash they made last year when they traded for Cliff Lee, but this year's moves may end up being just as impactful. The biggest question marks for their team was in the bullpen, which they shored by by acquiring two high caliber set up men - Mike Adams and Koji Uehara. Joining closer Neftali Feliz at the back end of the bullpen, the Rangers now have a shut down trio to finish games. Both are also under contract for next year, so they could consider making one the closer next year if they intend to move Feliz into the starting rotation.
Toronto Blue Jays
They took advantage of the fact that Colby Rasmus was unhappy with how he was being treated in St. Louis and acquired the talented outfielder on the cheap. Despite not giving up a highly rated prospect, they acquired a player with the tools to be a very good player.
Red Sox
I'm having trouble putting this in the "winners" category, since I'm not a huge fan of Erik Bedard. His injury history is nearly as worrisome as Rich Harden's, who the Sox failed to acquire after his medical reports showed too many warning signs. Somehow Bedard past the medical exam, but he could fall apart again at any time. The red flags with Bedard don't just stop at the physical issues, but also the mental ones. He can probably best be compared as the pitching version of J.D. Drew, and not just because of the nagging injuries that he's piled up. That's not exactly a comparison that will endear him to Red Sox Nation. His former GM from his days in Baltimore is on record saying he doesn't believe Bedard could succeed in a big market and while he had the skills to be an ace, he lacked the desire to be the top guy. He just doesn't seem like the type of guy that really cares. Is that someone we want taking with us in a pennant race?
The reason this is a win for the Red Sox is because it fills their biggest need, which is adding depth to the back end of the rotation. With Clay Buchholz still out indefinitely, there are no safe options behind Lester and Beckett in the rotation. John Lackey has been a mess this year, Tim Wakefield is approaching his 100th birthday and we don't know what we'll get from youngsters like Andrew Miller or Felix Doubrant. I certainly wouldn't feel good about any of those options starting Game 3 in a playoff series.
For all his faults, Bedard still has great stuff, as shown by the fact that he's still striking out nearly a batter per inning. If he's healthy for the next couple of months then he could be a great addition to an already great team. If he falls apart or lands on the DL, then at least they didn't give up much to get him. None of the prospects the Sox gave up in the deal were on the 40 man roster, so none of them likely had a future in Boston anyway. Given the skills Bedard clearly still has, he's worth the risk.
Losers
New York Yankees
This isn't an example of a Red Sox fan looking to hate on the Yankees. The reason they are on the losing end of the deadline is because despite having several holes to fill on their roster, they were shockingly silent at the deadline. Their rotation is full of question marks after C.C. Sabathia and their bullpen could use some help after being decimated by injuries. They also could have used a defensive minded utility infielder to back up the A-Rod and Jeter, as Eduardo Nunez is clearly not the answer. Sometimes the best trades are the ones you don't make, and they may have been right not to sell the farm for someone like Ubaldo Jimenez, but when October rolls around they better hope that either Sabathia is able to pitch every other game or Bartolo Colon gets another injection of stem cells, or else they may be in trouble.
Cleveland Indians
Nothing against Ubaldo Jimenez, who I think is still a very good pitcher, despite some struggles this year, but this deal makes little sense for Cleveland. A fast start to the season where they clearly overachieved put them atop a weak AL Central division, but lately they have come crashing back to earth. They have lost 8 of their last 10 games and have fallen 2.5 games behind Detroit in the division. If Ubaldo pitches like an ace then perhaps that will be enough to reclaim the lead, but even with him in the rotation they appear to be an early exit in the playoffs at best.
It's always a concern when an elite pitchers moves from the NL to the AL, where the deeper lineups that include a DH can be far more brutal. Yet Jimenez also escapes the thin air of Coors Field and ends up in a division that doesn't have many line-ups he should fear. After a dominating start in the first two months of last season, Jimenez has regressed. He's lost a few MPH off his fastball, which is a concern, but at 94-95 MPH he can still be effective. His high ERA could be blamed on his home ballpark, as he's been much better on the road (3.38 ERA) and his FIP suggests he's pitched much better than his ERA would suggest. He is still striking out hitters, and the move to Cleveland should help lower the amount of HRs allowed.
Jimenez should improve with his new team and will certainly help the Indians. He's also not a rental, as he's locked up to a favorable contract for a few more years. But the Indians aren't winning anything this year. Their fast start fooled them into thinking they should be buyers, when in fact they should still be building for the future. They gave up a large haul in this deal, so if it doesn't work out then they will have set themselves back on what was shaping up to be a promising future.
San Diego Padres
Everyone expected Heath Bell to be on the move, but once the deadline passed he remains the Padres closer. Perhaps it's a sign they believe they can re-sign him this off-season, but otherwise it appears they missed an opportunity to get good value on a highly sought after asset. An elite closer is an unnecessary luxury for a losing team and there was no shortage of contenders looking to upgrade their bullpens.
Instead of trading away Bell, they gave up elite set-up man Mike Adams, who is cheaper and under contract for next year. They could have kept him and made him the closer for the rest of the year, plus next year. Instead, they traded him, but kept Bell, and obtained a lesser package of prospects in return.
They also traded away Ryan Ludwick, which was expected, but with numerous teams interested in acquiring his bat, you'd think they could have done better than a "player to be named later." Too early to judge that deal until we know who that player is, but they probably could have done better.
Chicago Cubs
This is a team that should have been in fire sale mode, but was fairly quiet at the deadline. Nobody is touching Alfonso Soriano's contract, but they could have gotten rid of some of their other big veteran contracts, like Carlos Zambrano, Aramis Rameriz, or Carlos Pena. They could have saved some money and/or picked up some decent prospects, but instead they did nothing. Perhaps they tried and nobody wanted what they were offering, but when the team clearly needs to rebuild and the only bad contract they are able to unload is Koskue Fukodome then they clearly weren't trying hard enough.
Surprisingly, some big names that were swirling in the rumor mill heading toward the deadline, such as Heath Bell and B.J. Upton, did not get moved. Meanwhile, some contending teams expected to make a move, like the Yankees, were mysteriously silent.
Let's sort out which teams were successful at the deadline and which teams dropped the ball.
Winners
Philadelphia Phillies
They gave up some promising young prospects, but also filled a big hole on their roster by trading for Hunter Pence. For a contending team that's practically clinched a playoff spot already, improving their chances to win in October was a chance they could not pass on. Pence is an immediate upgrade in the outfield. He could take over for struggling rookie Dominic Brown, or be used to replace the rapidly declining Raul Ibanez in left. The Phillies have a dominant rotation, but needed a boost to their offense to back them up. Pence essentially replaces the production they lost when they allowed Jayson Werth to walk away, but he's much cheaper and they will still be able to keep him after this season.
San Francisco Giants
The Giants were desperate to add some punch to their anemic offense, and they succeeded by adding perhaps the best bat on the market in Carlos Beltran. He's the legitimate middle of the order bat that they've lacked all year. He may not run or play defense as well as he used to, but they got him to hit, which is one thing he's proved he can still do as long as he's healthy.
They also made separate moves to acquire Jeff Keppinger and Orlando Cabrera to shore up their infield depth. Both provide low cost marginal upgrades. O-Cab brings some essential intangibles to the table. Perhaps it's a coincidence, but when he goes to a new team he always seems to be a spark plug that helps the team improve (Red Sox in '04, Reds in '10, Indians this year, just to name a few examples).
Atlanta Braves
They lost out on the sweepstakes for both Beltran and Pence, but may have ended up ahead in the end by acquiring Michael Bourn. He doesn't get the attention he deserves due to his lack of power and RBI totals, but he is an elite center fielder that gets on base and routinely leads the NL in stolen bases. His 3.6 WAR (according to FanGraphs) is a full point ahead of his former teammate, Pence, and right in line with Beltran's. Yet he came to Atlanta at a much cheaper price than what the Giants and Phillies paid. He's a great fit in their line-up, which has gotten very little production out of the lead off spot. Excuse the bad pun, but this deal appears to be a steal for the Braves.
New York Mets
You don't have to be a buyer to be a winner at the deadline. The Mets have no chance at the postseason, making them clear sellers. They unloaded two high cost players in Francisco Rodriguez and Carlos Beltran and got some good prospects in return. They received San Francisco's best prospect, pitcher Zack Wheeler, which is a much better haul than most anticipated they would get for a 2 month rental of Beltran.
The money they save could go towards the funds they will need to re-sign Jose Reyes this off-season. Beltran wasn't going to be back, and by trading K-Rod they remove the fear that he could earn his ridiculous $17.5 million player option that kicks in if he finishes 55 games this season, which he was on pace to do. As part of the deal, it now becomes a mutual option for the Brewers, with a $4 million buyout, making it less risky for the Brewers to acquire him.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The moves they made were relatively minor, but they are big upgrades. After so many years of losing, it's nice to see the Pirates making a run at the playoffs. These moves should help. Derek Lee is clearly on the decline, but he's been hot lately and can't be any worse than Lyle Overbay. The addition of Ryan Ludwick to the outfield is an upgrade over Matt Diaz, and his numbers should increase now that he's hitting in a better line-up, outside of Petco Park.
Neither of these guys are difference makers, but they didn't give up any of their top prospects to get them, so it's a small risk that could help them stay in the race down the stretch.
Texas Rangers
They didn't make the same kind of splash they made last year when they traded for Cliff Lee, but this year's moves may end up being just as impactful. The biggest question marks for their team was in the bullpen, which they shored by by acquiring two high caliber set up men - Mike Adams and Koji Uehara. Joining closer Neftali Feliz at the back end of the bullpen, the Rangers now have a shut down trio to finish games. Both are also under contract for next year, so they could consider making one the closer next year if they intend to move Feliz into the starting rotation.
Toronto Blue Jays
They took advantage of the fact that Colby Rasmus was unhappy with how he was being treated in St. Louis and acquired the talented outfielder on the cheap. Despite not giving up a highly rated prospect, they acquired a player with the tools to be a very good player.
Red Sox
I'm having trouble putting this in the "winners" category, since I'm not a huge fan of Erik Bedard. His injury history is nearly as worrisome as Rich Harden's, who the Sox failed to acquire after his medical reports showed too many warning signs. Somehow Bedard past the medical exam, but he could fall apart again at any time. The red flags with Bedard don't just stop at the physical issues, but also the mental ones. He can probably best be compared as the pitching version of J.D. Drew, and not just because of the nagging injuries that he's piled up. That's not exactly a comparison that will endear him to Red Sox Nation. His former GM from his days in Baltimore is on record saying he doesn't believe Bedard could succeed in a big market and while he had the skills to be an ace, he lacked the desire to be the top guy. He just doesn't seem like the type of guy that really cares. Is that someone we want taking with us in a pennant race?
The reason this is a win for the Red Sox is because it fills their biggest need, which is adding depth to the back end of the rotation. With Clay Buchholz still out indefinitely, there are no safe options behind Lester and Beckett in the rotation. John Lackey has been a mess this year, Tim Wakefield is approaching his 100th birthday and we don't know what we'll get from youngsters like Andrew Miller or Felix Doubrant. I certainly wouldn't feel good about any of those options starting Game 3 in a playoff series.
For all his faults, Bedard still has great stuff, as shown by the fact that he's still striking out nearly a batter per inning. If he's healthy for the next couple of months then he could be a great addition to an already great team. If he falls apart or lands on the DL, then at least they didn't give up much to get him. None of the prospects the Sox gave up in the deal were on the 40 man roster, so none of them likely had a future in Boston anyway. Given the skills Bedard clearly still has, he's worth the risk.
Losers
New York Yankees
This isn't an example of a Red Sox fan looking to hate on the Yankees. The reason they are on the losing end of the deadline is because despite having several holes to fill on their roster, they were shockingly silent at the deadline. Their rotation is full of question marks after C.C. Sabathia and their bullpen could use some help after being decimated by injuries. They also could have used a defensive minded utility infielder to back up the A-Rod and Jeter, as Eduardo Nunez is clearly not the answer. Sometimes the best trades are the ones you don't make, and they may have been right not to sell the farm for someone like Ubaldo Jimenez, but when October rolls around they better hope that either Sabathia is able to pitch every other game or Bartolo Colon gets another injection of stem cells, or else they may be in trouble.
Cleveland Indians
Nothing against Ubaldo Jimenez, who I think is still a very good pitcher, despite some struggles this year, but this deal makes little sense for Cleveland. A fast start to the season where they clearly overachieved put them atop a weak AL Central division, but lately they have come crashing back to earth. They have lost 8 of their last 10 games and have fallen 2.5 games behind Detroit in the division. If Ubaldo pitches like an ace then perhaps that will be enough to reclaim the lead, but even with him in the rotation they appear to be an early exit in the playoffs at best.
It's always a concern when an elite pitchers moves from the NL to the AL, where the deeper lineups that include a DH can be far more brutal. Yet Jimenez also escapes the thin air of Coors Field and ends up in a division that doesn't have many line-ups he should fear. After a dominating start in the first two months of last season, Jimenez has regressed. He's lost a few MPH off his fastball, which is a concern, but at 94-95 MPH he can still be effective. His high ERA could be blamed on his home ballpark, as he's been much better on the road (3.38 ERA) and his FIP suggests he's pitched much better than his ERA would suggest. He is still striking out hitters, and the move to Cleveland should help lower the amount of HRs allowed.
Jimenez should improve with his new team and will certainly help the Indians. He's also not a rental, as he's locked up to a favorable contract for a few more years. But the Indians aren't winning anything this year. Their fast start fooled them into thinking they should be buyers, when in fact they should still be building for the future. They gave up a large haul in this deal, so if it doesn't work out then they will have set themselves back on what was shaping up to be a promising future.
San Diego Padres
Everyone expected Heath Bell to be on the move, but once the deadline passed he remains the Padres closer. Perhaps it's a sign they believe they can re-sign him this off-season, but otherwise it appears they missed an opportunity to get good value on a highly sought after asset. An elite closer is an unnecessary luxury for a losing team and there was no shortage of contenders looking to upgrade their bullpens.
Instead of trading away Bell, they gave up elite set-up man Mike Adams, who is cheaper and under contract for next year. They could have kept him and made him the closer for the rest of the year, plus next year. Instead, they traded him, but kept Bell, and obtained a lesser package of prospects in return.
They also traded away Ryan Ludwick, which was expected, but with numerous teams interested in acquiring his bat, you'd think they could have done better than a "player to be named later." Too early to judge that deal until we know who that player is, but they probably could have done better.
Chicago Cubs
This is a team that should have been in fire sale mode, but was fairly quiet at the deadline. Nobody is touching Alfonso Soriano's contract, but they could have gotten rid of some of their other big veteran contracts, like Carlos Zambrano, Aramis Rameriz, or Carlos Pena. They could have saved some money and/or picked up some decent prospects, but instead they did nothing. Perhaps they tried and nobody wanted what they were offering, but when the team clearly needs to rebuild and the only bad contract they are able to unload is Koskue Fukodome then they clearly weren't trying hard enough.
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